Pollster Oversample Chart

BigEdLB ^ | 8/13/16 | BigEdLB

[BigEdLB]

Here is my analysis of oversampling during polling vs Gallups analysis of that actual party ID in a state is.

[GilGil]

Gingrich has said many times Hillary will have a lot of trouble getting above 40% and that most likely by election time she will poll in the high 30’s.

[Red Steel]

" Marist is the worst of the bunch," but PPP isn’t far behind.

As I was about to say you beat me to it. ;-)

Only fifteen minutes looking over Marist College's mission statement, goals, and leftist beliefs will tell you how very far left and neck deep into globalism. The very reason the far leftist loons at NBC use them as their pollsters.

[FroggyTheGremlim]

OK, let's assume the oversampling in favor of Dems real (.000043 probability).

Questions: How is this happening?

Who is leading/organizing the effort?

What is the purpose of misleading?

Are they getting "walking orders" from a central source?

So many questions ...

[LS]

Looks like “Longroom.com” is kaput. Not coming up any more.

Hit and run?? LOL

[FroggyTheGremlim]

I guess one more question popped up:

Do they choose first the amount of Dem (Hillary's) lead they want, then discard samples until they get that number?

Or do they run the complete analysis first, then discard Rep votes until they get the desired number?

Or do they calculate the number before and quit calling when the number is reached?

[Ray76]

Thanks for your work

[Timpanagos1]

A major factor in Florida is the number of Pureto Ricans that have left Puerto Rico and now live in Florida. I have seen numbers that say they up to 250,000 Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida in the last four years.

These Puerto Ricans have never voted in a presidential election.

They will go out and vote, but we don’t know how the Pureto Ricans will vote.

[Red Steel]

LoL Marist (9.8) oversample of CO Dems. Their CO poll was total crap.

[major-pelham]

Long room is gone over that bitchy 538 lady article or something else?

[Nifster]

Ignore all media

Get Out The Vote

[major-pelham]

Nice job FRiend! I dont think anyone knows who’s voting this year and it’s hyper deceitful when they know that but oversampling dems anyway rather than how you and long room were doing it. The good news is when likely voter become the only ones done the margins will.close significantly. -13 dems in friggin utah? Be serious....Media polls suck. I know it’s whiny to complain but it’s just disbonest, this cycle anyways.

[HotHunt]

How To Lie With Statistics

[bigbob]

Me too. Thanks.

[thinden]

Crazy world that has to go to pravda to get truthful reporting on us election

[9YearLurker]

Unfortunately all we need to do is take a look at PR and we have a pretty good idea as to how they’ll vote.

[Intolerant in NJ]

I guess to be fair we'd have to run a two-tailed test since they could have both over- and under-sampled 'rats - anyway the obtained results are very very improbable by chance alone.
Incidentally one way for a reputable pollster to cancel out the shy Republican issue might be to oversample until they got an adequate number of non-shy 'pubs to reply, then randomly eliminate the extra 'rats they would have accumulated until their ratios are appropriate - but that would be a reputable pollster - so hard to find.....

[WildHighlander57]

Thanks for the ping, hoosiermama!

Big Ed,

What happens to that spreadsheet when the oversampling is taken out?

[WildHighlander57]

BigEdLB, combat_boots

Many thanks for your analysis and posts; pinging them out!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3459526/posts?page=35#35

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3459526/posts?page=37#37

[LucyT]

Ping to links at # 58 .

Thanks, Wildhighlander57.

[irish guard]

Two of three pollsters have Wisconsin right. There are about 4-5% more democrats than republicans in our satiate...so whatever those two polls contain are likely correct.