It will collapse.................
Posted on 08/11/2016 8:37:58 AM PDT by blam
Jeff Berwick
August 11, 2016
We are at an incredible moment in history.
US stock markets are at nominal all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. Yet, central banks worldwide sit at 0% interest rates or less because things are too precarious to even raise rates a paltry 0.25% for fear of collapsing the entire system.
In “traditional” economics this makes no sense. But we are far out of “traditional” now… we are in the extreme end-stages of a collapsing system. When that happens, nothing makes sense from a traditional/normal perspective.
In the third quarter of 2015, during the end of the Shemitah year, world stock markets had their worst quarter since the last Shemitah year in 2008… and then they bounced back up. In January, world stock markets had their worst starting month to the year in history… and then they bounced back up. And, most recently, the day after Brexit, which was 7 days, 7 weeks, 7 months and 7 years since the Shemitah end day in 2008, world stock markets again had their worst day in history… and then bounced back up.
Of course we notice the numerical repetition. None of this is happenstance, surely. It is clear we are onto something; and thus we continue to expect massive volatility and crashes. We predicted them and they arrived as scheduled. We’ve seen three crashes in the last year with massive volatility. And, volatility is usually a sign that something is terribly wrong.
The final crash, the biggest “black swan” ever and subsequent economic depression, surely will be worse than anything that has gone before. Post-crash, expect additional and deeper warfare as those behind these disasters will need to create organized violence to maintain control of society as....
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...
It will collapse.................
>>I thought a Black Swan Event was something that couldn’t be foreseen?
By the majority of market participants, yes. But a five-sigma portion will foresee it, and harvest gains from it.
The end of the world is coming. Since your money won’t do you any good in the long run, mail it all to me.
1. They’ll eventually be right. The stock market crashes every decade or so
2. No one knows the exact date.
3. You’re better off holding your stocks through the drop and recovery than selling early. Always.
2016
2015
2014
2013
I could go on...
The global elites are setting up a yuge “Trumps Fault” feeding frenzy.
Interesting observation.
Our debt obligations are closer to 100 trillion.
I quit reading right there.
Given this presumption, IS it beyond the realm of possibility that the international banking cabal in concert with the current regime could orchestrate and time a "Black Swan" event to occur between a Trump Election victory and Inaugural Day?
And if so, might a so called joint "resolution" be proposed by President 0bama, joined by GOPe "leadership", AND framed by the Dem-Globalist owned media as "requiring maintaining as much stability as possible before changing over the reigns of the Presidency"? (AKA, a suspension of the Inauguration indefinitely?)
Some of us believe the Democrats, GOPe, and globalist-elites are desperately plotting ways of remaining in power by hook or crook without it appearing to obvious.
Honest opinions please. Thanks you.
There is another explanation and this is a THEORY only: we are in a 25 year deflation caused by massive, truly revolutionary productivity growth via computers that still has yet to even be appreciated, let alone valued in.
This deflation was further exacerbated by the housing crash. But that didn’t change the underlying factor that computers have changed productivity rates in ways that economists still cannot even count.
Just one little example. A guy named Bhide did a book called the “Venturesome Economy” a few years ago. He noted almost in passing that corporate R&D is down, but that in fact they can’t keep up with the new developments. Bhide found that in tech areas, companies have basically “farmed out” much of their former R&D to the consumer, and that all they do now is listen to consumers for what new apps they want and then immediately address those.
Take an iPhone: prior to the 1970s, the “normal” way to measure the value increase would be to compare an older phone to a newer phone. That worked well until phones stopped being phones and became phones, computers, GPS systems, gaming systems, cameras, datebooks, e-mail, computers, and on and on. To truly capture the value increase, one would have to track every single one of those functions to its original iteration, THEN find a way to bundle all that productivity increase into a single device.
This is in part (not entirely) what is behind so much of the unemployment. We haven’t yet “re-purposed” the employees who previously worked in many of these tasks. I’m not saying we don’t need to build cars and make textiles. I am saying that the tech changes in all these things have not been properly monetized. Just a theory.
bttt
Bonds and interest rate have an inverse relationship. Since government bonds are paying little to no interest, the bonds are at an near all time high.
Bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship. Since the interest rates on government bonds are so low, the bonds are high.
Or just one of the many, many possible events that is so unlikely as to be ignored?
Is Taleb a gold bug?
If you see it coming and don’t do anything, its not a “black swan.”
that’s called willful idiocy.
I would think so, but I cannot completely dismiss the notion that Trump might also be regarded by them as "someone with whom we can make a deal."
Everything is so complex that you really can't rule much of anything out.
Some of us believe the Democrats, GOPe, and globalist-elites are desperately plotting ways of remaining in power by hook or crook without it appearing to obvious.
Honest opinions please. Thanks you.
I think you have pretty much summed up my thinking in this regard. In the last seven months, I have come to a realization that this very same dynamic was at work in 1860, and is what actually triggered the civil war.
"Global Trading interests", which on the Eastern seaboard meant mostly "European Trade", appears to be the focus around which the push for war coalesced.
The most likely black swan I think would be a collapse of the dollar. But then if we knew it was likely it wouldn’t be a black swan.
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