Posted on 06/14/2016 11:10:26 AM PDT by detective
One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and by a fairly comfortable margin at that.
There's just one problem: Its creator doesn't believe his own forecast.
Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June), and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1992.
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
Here comes the Hillary “hockey stick”. lol
Wonder if he lives near a park?
I’m sick of these polls and “models” predicting the outcome of the election 5 months out.
Truth is no one knows what is going to happen in November.
My gut tells me Trump will win a substantial victory, but gut feeling has been wrong before.
In a sane country, Trump would win in a landslide. The shape of the economy, the number of people on welfare and food stamps, unemployment, the failure of 0bama to deal with Islamic Terrorism....it should all add up to a big Trump win.
Problem is, we are no longer a sane country. Common sense no longer shapes people decisions. People make their choice now by what the see on 24/7 news, the internet and social media, all which is dominated by leftists. Which means despite how awful a candidate Hillary Clinton is, she can still win if peoples minds are shaped by what the see on these outlets.
Good news is Donald Trump has been all over social media getting his message out, so he does have a good shot at turning the tables on the libs.
But we will have to wait a bit to find out the true outcome.
This is the kind of propaganda that they’re running against Trump:
http://qz.com/705905/nine-lies-from-donald-trumps-speech-on-the-orlando-shooting/
Dude — BELIEVE IT!!!
JOE DAN NAILS IT AGAIN!
https://intellectualfroglegs.com/hillary-handbasket/
Huh? I thought that was his policy:
Donald Trump insisted on Thursday that the U.S. must keep wages low in order to compete with other countries, one day after he dug in on his assertion that "wages are too high" in America....
Trump will rise to the high 40’s.
Clinton will rise to the high 30’s.
By election time Trump may exceed 50+ and landslide will be the most used word to describe his candidacy.
You heard it here first.
He has to do what the climate change mafia does. Simply change the model until it gives the desired results.
How about George Soros’ efforts? He owns the vote count in Florida and New York and 9 other states.
Why post a bs opinion piece from a totally unknown site by an unheard of author?
Do you even know the difference between opinion and fact?
Too bleeping close, Kim Jung Shrill can shave 3 points. We need a 60%+ victory so they can't. Pray for the "Monster Vote"...
I agree with the model's creator, and I don't believe his model's prediction either. I'm not saying Trump will lose, just that no statistical model based on previous outcomes with establishment candidates has much value in predicting the swing states this year.
The bottom line: models assume that previous data are representative of the current election, and we know that is not true this year.
PC is still running amok, in large corporations....
FABULOUS!!!!!
Well you probably do support Bernie over Hillary, LOL, until the general election.
I am waiting on the Weekly Reader analysis.....
According to the model there is a split, as in 50-50?
Yet 3 forecast models say Trump wins and 2 models show Hitlery-an unindicted criminal-winning.
Anyone with a pulse and a brain will vote for Trump on November 8, 2016.
“By election time Trump may exceed 50+ and landslide will be the most used word to describe his candidacy.
You heard it here first.”
Sounds good to me!
His company counts the votes in those states with which he has a contract, 11 of them. The vote total will be whatever he decides. There is no record of what was on the machines other than the final furnished tally. I think Trump has to win such an obvious overwhelming majority of the legitimate vote that falsifying the count will set off a reaction that can’t be controlled by the regime. If that happens I expect the tally to show no more than a couple of percent win.
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