Posted on 05/23/2016 1:46:06 PM PDT by Roos_Girl
Moody's Analytics has released its election model and is predicting that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States.
Moody's Analytics has correctly predicted the winner of the presidency since 1980, basing its predictions on a two-year change in economic data in home prices, income growth, and gasoline prices, according to an NPR report.
Moody's analyst, Dan White, said that those three things affect a person's daily life the most.
"Things that affect marginal voter behavior most significantly are things that the average American is going to run into on an almost daily basis," White said.
The Moody's analyst told NPR that a decline in gas prices points to a win for the incumbent Democratic Party.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
I’ve now gone to the source, and find - exactly as I had expected - the model was calibrated on elections of the past so many years.
It has yet to generate one out-of-sample forecast that was subsequently sustained or contradicted.
Basically, with 8 elections upon which to calibrate a model, it’s a guarantee that calibrating a model with 8 parameters will give an exact fit to the past. But, there would be no measure of forecasting precision for the future. Paradoxically, the better the fit to the past (with a large number of parameters), the lower the out-of-sample forecasting ability.
In the report, I count income, gas prices, housing prices, voter fatigue, presidential approval, and past vote share. That’s 6. Relative to eight elections, that’s a large number of parameters. I am sorry, but the Moody’s Analytics people either don’t know what they’re talking about, or do know and think their readers don’t.
To correct my prior post, Ray C. Fair of Yale first developed his model in 1978 with data through 1976 (not 1876).
They obviously haven’t factored in Trump’s political buzz-saw tactics.
He’s a cross between Daddy Warbucks and Lee Atwater.
God help us!
Moody’s is right. They are just oozing with rightness right now. Moody’s will continue to be right as long as this country holds elections. That, or the Pope is Catholic. Moody’s couldn’t be any more right about the Hill DDog (Two D’s for a double dose of her pimping game, said with stutter and chest thump) being our next dictator. All the political (read: bullshit) signs point to it. And nobody crosses a Clinton and lives, there’s also that going on for her campaign. Third times the charm, suckers. You’ll eat it and you’ll like it! And beg for seconds because that’s now mandatory!
Her V card is every bit as valid as Bathhouse Barry’s Black card and her ridiculous Trump card will make the anointing look almost genuine to absolute morons everywhere.
OK, so gas has fallen....everything else is up YUGELY since Obama. This is NOT going to be a typical election. The status quo liberal snow job is a turd that will never polish clean by election time. People are in a state of revolt.
Whom did they predict would win this year’s Republican nomination? How did that go?
Throw out all previous data. THIS year is different
On one hand I am inclined to think that. On the other hand I am inclined to believe that we have moved to a left of center nation.
The economy is not good. Business loan delinquencies are now back up at 2008 levels among other things. Moody’s might want to enter the correct economic numbers into its model and try re-calculating instead of using fudged Obama stats that more of the electorate now realized are phony, and they’ll likely come up with a different conclusion. We’re now closer to 1992 and 2008 then the economic boom times, with things likely to get even worse.
That map was done in Aug 2015, before the Trump train got momentum...
model? I seem to have heard this word before in predictions. Climate change models. They don’t exactly work very well.
See posts 51 & 57.
Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump Shatter Moody’s Crystal Ball
http://ivn.us/2015/09/04/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-shatter-moodys-crystal-ball-2016/
“The model results are less valid if either political party nominates a non-establishment candidate. Elections since 1980 have been between candidates who are generally thought to be largely in the mainstream of American politics. Some of the current presidential candidates are more on the fringes of the political spectrum.” – Moody’s Analytics
In short, if Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump are among the final contenders, all bets are off.
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