BOOM – Trump Leads Clinton In ABC/Washington Post Poll, Even With D+8 Poll Sample…

theconservativetreehouse.com ^ | May 22, 2016 | sundance

[GonzoII]

There’s a whole lot of good news and ‘splodey head angst in the latest ABC/Washington Post national poll (full pdf below). The poll sample size of 1005 includes a mix of 33% Democrat, 27% Republican and 35% Independent. Democrats over sampled by eight points, (D+8).

However, even with the sample skew (D+8) Donald Trump still beats Hillary Clinton 46% to 44%, and Trump is crushing Clinton with Independent voters 48% to 35%.

In addition to the overwhelming 13 point polling lead among independent voters, the same poll shows that 20% of Bernie Sanders supporters will vote for Donald Trump.

[Jane Long]

More GREAT Trump news!!!

[skepsel]

Kudos for “collops”! Thin sliced, beaten meat, usually salt mutton. Had to look that one up. Codswallop, for the lies and BS that Hillary pushes came to mind, along with bollix, bollocks or ballocks, all possible verbal reactions to her codswallop. Harridan I like too, along with fishwife, shrew, termagant and battle-axe. I would have prefixed raddled with pox or pocks to imply diseased. I love classic invective!

[Psalm 144]

I don’t know about that but the jackanape trulls will be hoist with their own petards!

[Psalm 144]

Codswallop! What an excellent word!

[spokeshave]

Hillary is going to pull out all the stops to block Donald glide to the White House. She may make the same mistake Little Marco did, in wallowing in the rhetorical muds with Donald, and becoming disgusted with the changes.

Ha....that Depends.

[spokeshave]

Want we have here is an adversary with power, money, connections and grit.

That is (for those in Rio Linda) a more formidable foe than expected

[skepsel]

Wonderful!

[SMGFan]

“Trump 46%” trending in Twitter top ten 12K tweets. FWIW. Honestly I want to see battleground state polls.

[Personal Responsibility]

A solid 45ish percent of the Left vote is proteat vote.

[Dave W]

The poll isn't oversampling democrats. Check out the last two elections - more democrats turned out to vote than republicans. There have always been more democrats then republicans in this country.

Exactly what makes you think that the voters in November will split exactly 50% between republicans and democrats. It has never happened and won't this year, either. Trump can and will win democrat votes, but more democrats will come to the polls than republicans. That is the easiest stat to predict for this November.

[Dave W]

True, but all polls use RV until Labor Day - then they switch to LV.

[Dave W]

That is because Hispanics are not a race. Hispanics can be black or white. Hispanics are an ethnic group, not a race. Many polls separate them, but some do not and they let the Hispanics self identify as white or black.

[Dave W]

There are more democrats in this country than republicans. That is why there are more democrats in the sample. On election day, more democrats will vote than republicans. That’s the way it is. A poll with an exact 50/50 split would be incorrect - that’s not real life.

[justlurking]

There are some interesting numbers in this poll, beyond what is highlighted in the article:

• Among every group in the poll, Trump has made progress in all but two groups: age 30-39 (lost 2%) and age 40-49 (no change). In the age 18-29 group, Trump has gained from 64%/25% in March, to (a statistically even) 45%/42% in May.

• The article mentioned, but it is worth repeating: 8 percent of the people supporting Clinton in the primary defected to Trump. I think that's more interesting than the 20% of Sanders supporters defecting to Trump: it means that Trump's attack on Hillary are working.

• Back in March, 4% of Trump's primary supporters were planning to defect to Clinton. Now, it's 0% -- meaning he has brought those people back.

• Back in March, 20% of the Republicans supporting other than Trump were planning to vote for Clinton. Now, it's 11%. Either Trump has won over nearly half of them, or at least made Clinton unacceptable.

• 15% of Obama voters plan to vote for Trump, vs. only 6% of Romney voters planning to vote for Clinton. This is the first survey that asked that question, and it will be interesting to see the trend.

• Trump peeling off more Democrats and Liberals than Clinton is peeling off from Republicans and Conservatives. And the trend is in Trump's favor.

• Clinton is still winning among moderates, but she has lost a LOT of ground: from 61/27 in March to 49/39 in May. That's a "yuuuuge" change.

• Among whites, Clinton is only ahead among women with college degrees. But, Trump has either closed or increased the margin among all whites since March.

I realize these are different sets of people in the March and May poll, so I'm writing "metaphorically" in some cases: Trump didn't necessarily change minds... it's just the differences in the two samples.

But, this is a huge improvement in 2 months, despite the circular firing squad with both Republicans and the Democrats. It will be interesting to see the next poll, and look at the trends.

[justlurking]

The poll isn't oversampling democrats. Check out the last two elections - more democrats turned out to vote than republicans. There have always been more democrats then republicans in this country.

Do you mean Presidential elections? Or, are you including off-year elections?

In 2006 and 2008, there were more Democrats.
In 2004 and 2010, party affiliation was equal.

But, in 2006 was the last off-year election while Bush was President, and opposition to the Iraq war finally came to a head. And, 2008 was the year Obama was elected.

I couldn't find more recent results for 2012 and 2014, but I would expect similar results: In 2012, there were probably more Democrats, and in 2014 it was probably about even.

Overall, there tends to be more Democrats in Presidential elections than there are in off-year elections. But, the "enthusiasm" factor benefited Obama -- along with the mediocre Republican candidates.

This year, I think Trump will be the net beneficiary of enthusiasm -- if for no other reason than because some Republicans will vote for the first time since Reagan. The "woman" factor will help Clinton, but not enough to offset the "disgust" factor.

I think the poll should still be oversampling Democrats, but +8 is unreasonable.

[GonzoII]

Interesting insight.

[GonzoII]

If the +60% Republican and -30% Dem turnout in the primaries is paralleled in the General it will be interesting on election night.

[Rome2000]

Frankly, the “take no prisoners” approach is refreshing after decades of phony PC speak.

After he wins, I hope he takes LOTS of prisoners, including 90% of the Obama Administration, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Obama's Supreme Court lackeys, illegal alien advocacy group leaders, and a couple hundred thousand supporters of the COMMIE BERNIE SANDERS and SHRILLARY!.

The individuals on the list of Sanders contributors should be harassed and disqualified from holding a security clearance or Federal employment.

Make it a crime to be a communist in America again.

[justlurking]

I couldn't find more recent results for 2012 and 2014, but I would expect similar results: In 2012, there were probably more Democrats, and in 2014 it was probably about even.

I found 2012: As expected, it was D+6: 38/32/29 -- almost exactly the same as 2008.

And in 2014, it was R+1: 35/36/28 -- in exit polls conducted for House races.

So, the question remains: given the dynamics of voter enthusiasm, is oversampling that exceeds the difference observed in Obama's first election the correct value to use for this election?

I found this resource for Presidental election:

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/presidential-elections/2012-presidential-election/

On the right side, you can choose Presidential elections back to 1976. Click on the link labelled {year} Group Voting, and then scroll to the bottom. You'll find a category for Party Identification, and the first column of numbers is the total for that party.

An interesting piece of data: in 1984 it was D+3: 38/35/26, but Reagan nearly swept the Electoral College. It was also D+3 in 2000, when it came down to one state (Florida) in the Electoral College.

[Brown Deer]