There are some interesting numbers in this poll, beyond what is highlighted in the article:
- Among every group in the poll, Trump has made progress in all but two groups: age 30-39 (lost 2%) and age 40-49 (no change). In the age 18-29 group, Trump has gained from 64%/25% in March, to (a statistically even) 45%/42% in May.
- The article mentioned, but it is worth repeating: 8 percent of the people supporting Clinton in the primary defected to Trump. I think that's more interesting than the 20% of Sanders supporters defecting to Trump: it means that Trump's attack on Hillary are working.
- Back in March, 4% of Trump's primary supporters were planning to defect to Clinton. Now, it's 0% -- meaning he has brought those people back.
- Back in March, 20% of the Republicans supporting other than Trump were planning to vote for Clinton. Now, it's 11%. Either Trump has won over nearly half of them, or at least made Clinton unacceptable.
- 15% of Obama voters plan to vote for Trump, vs. only 6% of Romney voters planning to vote for Clinton. This is the first survey that asked that question, and it will be interesting to see the trend.
- Trump peeling off more Democrats and Liberals than Clinton is peeling off from Republicans and Conservatives. And the trend is in Trump's favor.
- Clinton is still winning among moderates, but she has lost a LOT of ground: from 61/27 in March to 49/39 in May. That's a "yuuuuge" change.
- Among whites, Clinton is only ahead among women with college degrees. But, Trump has either closed or increased the margin among all whites since March.
I realize these are different sets of people in the March and May poll, so I'm writing "metaphorically" in some cases: Trump didn't necessarily change minds... it's just the differences in the two samples.
But, this is a huge improvement in 2 months, despite the circular firing squad with both Republicans and the Democrats. It will be interesting to see the next poll, and look at the trends.
Interesting insight.