Posted on 05/18/2016 6:15:16 AM PDT by TaxPayer2000
Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.
~~~SNIP ~~~
1. Our early forecasts of Trump’s nomination chances weren’t based on a statistical model, which may have been most of the problem.
2. Trump’s nomination is just one event, and that makes it hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic forecast.
3. The historical evidence clearly suggested that Trump was an underdog, but the sample size probably wasn’t large enough to assign him quite so low a probability of winning.
4. Trump’s nomination is potentially a point in favor of “polls-only” as opposed to “fundamentals” models.
5. There’s a danger in hindsight bias, and in overcorrecting after an unexpected event such as Trump’s nomination.
~~SNIP ~~
IOW, “We don’t know WTH is happening here.”
Pssst! Hey Silver!
No one gives a flying flip about your blah blah blah ...
Now go back to your spreadsheets and macros, and regain contact with your inner nerd.
[1. Our early forecasts of Trump’s nomination chances weren’t based on a statistical model, which may have been most of the problem.]
So they were based on a BS, pulled out of your a*s model, just like every other mainstream outlet...
6) If you can reach them at all, average Americans now usually curse at a pollster before slamming down the phone.
Well, I am one of the ones that they cannot reach by phone. But if they still could I would still mislead them.
Nate is just another partisan hack who isn’t quite smart enough to realize it.
I don't think it was "hindsight" bias. These people were biased from the beginning.
I've said from day 1 that the criteria pollsters were using under estimated the effect of populations where Trump would achieve overwhelming victories. One is Veterans, military, and those in that sphere. Another is people whose lives have been impacted by cheap labor, jobs going overseas, and invader violence. The formulas that work with small sample sizes for "margin of error" only apply for an across the board like-minded voting population.
6. We were so elitist and separated from the common man that we couldn’t see out our ass.
He succumbed to the herd effect.
+1
Economic forecaster Martin Armstrong had predicted a few years ago that there would be a third party candidate this year due to the parties disconnection with the public. We don’t have a third party, but Trump came in as an outsider. So it was possible to predict.
Hemmer interviewing Eric Trump, played the ad and wondered how those quotes might hurt Donald Trump. Hemmer never mentioned the BJ Clinton zipper issues nor Hillary being in charge of the Bimbo Eruption Team. Hemmer wondered whether the Trump Team response might be dirty.
Eric pointed out the BJ/Hillary problem with women. He also pointed out that the old Clinton machine was quite adept at digging dirt.
Hemmer apparently is too young to remember the Clinton machine ‘scorched earth’ and ‘politics of personal destruction’.
Eric also pointed out that the last ad quote using the f-word was in reference to China, not women. That makes the ad deceptive and inaccurate.
[That is how the Clintons play in politics, Eric. Be ready, because the Clinton machine will come at Trump with everything they have or can make up. Expect the media sycophants to pile on.]
I stopped answering the phone in 2012.
True! Silver couldn’t resist the call of the wilding media circling Trump, pissing themselves and basically just being miserable in their own skins.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
Trying to save their phoney baloney jobs
Be nice (not just you, but everyone). The callers for polling firms are working hard to make a living. Imagine doing that job, and you'll know what I mean. If you're going to hang up on them, please do it politely. I hired Americans, and many of my callers had serious health issues, only taking the job because calling was one of the few jobs they could handle.
I thought this was an Onion piece.
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