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NATE SILVER: 'We basically got the Republican race wrong'
Business Insider ^ | 5/5/2016 | Dan Turkel

Posted on 05/05/2016 8:50:19 AM PDT by GilGil

In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to "calm down" about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination.

Two months later, he wrote that the media should "stop freaking out about Donald Trump's polls" and that Trump's odds were "higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent."

Six months after that, after Ted Cruz had dropped out of the race but before John Kasich had done so, Silver wrote: "Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination."

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 1237; 2016election; election; election2016; natesilver; newyork; primaries; trump
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To: GilGil
Then I told Nate this year, directly, your problem is you never consider the null set. You never consider the other guy might be right, and you might be wrong.
41 posted on 05/05/2016 12:13:59 PM PDT by StAnDeliver ("Too bad your overhauled unicorn start-up failed, Ted.")
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To: GilGil

SO WHY SHOULD ANYONE LISTEN TO YOU AFTER THIS?


42 posted on 05/05/2016 12:14:42 PM PDT by Mr. K (Trump will win NY state - choke on that HilLIARy)
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To: LS

Romney SHOULD HAVE won- the only thing that got Odumbass re-elected was VOTER FRAUD


43 posted on 05/05/2016 12:18:31 PM PDT by Mr. K (Trump will win NY state - choke on that HilLIARy)
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To: GilGil

Glenn Limbaugh has no remaining credibility.


44 posted on 05/05/2016 12:27:05 PM PDT by newfreep
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To: Shoefus

It’s a stretch to say Rush has trashed Trump. He totally GETS Trump. He has used his observations to learn how his listeners are feeling regarding it all and in that will play devil’s advocate sometimes. But, he hasn’t trashed Trump at all.
_____________________

A lot of people disagree with you including me.

Limbaugh now has to do major damage control and get back on Trump’s good side because that is where all the gravy is.

Limbaugh did say that if you want the most conservative candidate Cruz is for you despite obvious facts to the contrary.

The most conservative guy could simply not win. There is something wrong with that. Cruz, Limbaugh, Beck, Levin,Krauthammer have all failed as conservatives. Had Trump not shown up we would be looking at another failure in these elections.

Conservatives need to get away from the idea that if they must compromise their principles they simply will sit the elections out so they can be pure of heart and they are content sacrificing the masses for their principles.

I keep saying that if they are so sure of their conservative ideology then Limbaugh, Beck, Levin, Krauthammer etc. need to run for public office and show us how their ideology works and wins.

The thing is they won’t do that because they are stuck in their conservative safe zones where there is all that gravy. That is what is wrong with the conservative movement right now. Conservatism is an intellectual pursuit with no meaningful success in reality.


45 posted on 05/05/2016 12:46:24 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: HarleyLady27

Bump! Agree with everything you wrote. Would add that we don’t want Killary selecting as many as four SCOTUS judges.


46 posted on 05/05/2016 1:08:40 PM PDT by upchuck (I'm hanging here until my Free Republic 401K is fully vested.)
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To: GilGil

His 538 page has been stuck for days on Trump being 98% on target, with only 1014 delegates. He’s totally behind the curve.


47 posted on 05/05/2016 5:37:51 PM PDT by Deo volente ("NAFTA, GATT, WTO, New World Order." George Putnam, among others, warned us.)
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To: Deo volente

His 538 page has been stuck for days on Trump being 98% on target, with only 1014 delegates. He’s totally behind the curve.
_____________________

Silver is vanquished and defeated and depressed. A total failure!


48 posted on 05/05/2016 6:16:29 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: Sasparilla

Nate Silver has always been tarnished. He called 2012 well but he is a liberal and has no choice but to be biased, naturally, in that direction.


49 posted on 05/05/2016 6:19:55 PM PDT by Solson (Trump 2016!)
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