Posted on 04/30/2016 6:29:22 AM PDT by GilGil
Donald Trump supporters are a generally happy bunch...
The Cruz campaign in Indiana is in a state of collapse and freefall. By the end of the weekend you can expect the narrative to shift, and the campaign will be pointing fingers toward California (June 7th) because their impending defeat is looming ever more dangerous.
Before getting to a recent poll, lets take a look at the current landscape. Senator Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina spoke at a campaign rally in South Bend Indiana. In a venue capable of holding more than 2,000 only a few hundred showed up...
That’s the second actual ground report in the past 48 hours highlighting exactly the same thing. The first report we shared yesterday...
My post election night math had 1,003 as solid – but virtually identical. So you can see, the probability of Trump earning the remaining 235 (1237 – 1002 = 235), knowing 51 of those are easily won in New Jersey (winner take all June 7th) makes the outcome of Trump winning enough delegates to capture the nomination a very high probability.
That crossing of the ‘inevitability factor’ threshold is what we have outlined as the most dangerous time. The angriest moment in the denial phase is right before the ideologically entrenched accept an inevitable outcome.
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
Lyin' Ted has always been a phony "convenient conservative" whenever it suited him to gain power.
From pushing "pathway amnesty" to partnering with Heidi's NO BORDERS North American Union plan to benefit her Goldman-Sachs masters.
“but I’m not sure I’d write Cruz off in Indiana just because of a 1/2 empty rally Friday.”
Certainly not. He has the GOPe behind him. Anything to stop Trump they will do. Even if it means supporting the most despised man in Washington DC. With Trump sitting in the White House everything changes. With Cruz nothing changes. He’s establishment, just one who’s despised. But his bread is buttered exactly the way all the others are.
“Ted Cruz is owned by Wall St.” ~ Ron Paul
And he did....ROTFLOL.
Trump gives them real hope that this country can be saved.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
That’s it in a nutshell.
He also explains how it will be done. Build wall, build military, take care of vets, America First foreign policy focusing on nuclear threats, enact tariffs to balance trade, drastically lower corporate taxes, eliminate all the bogus regulations around “Global warming” (freeing fracking and coal), eliminate other excessive workplace and environmental regulations, eliminate Obamacare, keep social security and medicare intact.
Implicit:
1. Play the currency wars to win, don’t just surrender.
1.a. Holders of $20T U.S. debt will be paid in full, but possibly with devalued dollars)
2. Drastically reduce legal immigration, especially from Muslim countries.
3. Cancel some big pork-barrel military programs, like F-35
4. Reform medicaid to cover “people dying in the streets,” but with a baseline level of coverage (not the expensive stuff)
5. Abortion, LGBT issues: status quo legal. Not his crusade.
Caption for that picture should be “Please clap.”
Indeed. I never knew that when he was just a senator. It took his presidential campaign to reveal who he really is. Now that I've seen it, I want nothing to do with him.
To believe the Mike Downs poll (who’s not been involved in polling since 2011), is to believe that the 6 straight contests where Cruz won exactly 1 delegate and was destroyed by Trump, meant nothing. The two weeks polling used encompass NY, and a week later 5 crushing defeats for Cruz. All other polls show the race close but with Trump leading. Along comes this outlier of 400 people polled over a two week period, the very two weeks that Cruz was destroyed by Trump, but presto Cruz leads by 16! Not buying it for a minute, but of course Fox News is running with it because it shows Trump losing.
Cruz,s campaign is like the guy drinking at bar after closing time not noticing the lights going off, and the bartender saying, you don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here.
538 gives value to any endorsement from anyone in calculating percentages of winning. Bad model to use. Bobby Knight’s endorsement means a hell lot more to Trump than Pence’s did to Cruz. And Scott Walker’s endorsement means nothing in Indiana.
I was able to stomach Fox News for a few minutes this morning. They only showed the one Indiana poll that had Cruz ahead. FNC is funnier than the Comedy Channel.
A poll conducted by IPFW/Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics shows Cruz leading by 16 points. The samples were not weighted, at all, and the interviews began on the April 13. No information was provided for the results regarding the corresponding days, which makes it impossible to identify a trend in either direction.
“Like I said,” PPD’s senior political analyst Richard Baris responded to the poll, “the Cruz campaign doesn’t believe they are leading and admit they once had a lead. It was never this large. We never think it’s a good idea to dismiss any poll as an outlier outright, but I am more than skeptical to say the least. Let’s wait to see what the more reliable pollsters say this weekend.”
This is an on-campus organization. It is located in South Bend, Indiana on the campus of Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne...all the way up in northern Indiana. Additionally, their office is located in the Liberal Arts building.
I’ve come to the conclusion - and this IPFwhatever poll proves it - the ONLY reason that poll is in there is so that it can push the narrative that this thing is tight..
The media is just as much involved in keeping Cruz / Kasich / Bernie in this thing as the RNC / DNC.
If they can have eyeballs on this circus right up to convention then the media is winning big time and it Segways right into the main event, which has all the makings of a weekly firestorm nuclear event.. Trump / Beast..
Media is the big winner here - at the expense of Cruz mostly.. Bernie and Kasich will recover, Cruz I think is damaging himself badly.. too bad I used to really like the guy..
A normal Trump rally.....filled to the rafters.
>>only a few hundred showed up...
Remember, when they speak of their “great ground game”, they don’t mean “voters”. That’s what separates “consistent conservatism(tm)” from real conservatism.
What is the IPFW/Downs Center? The poll has Cruz up at 45?
That’s probably the one that’s being posted all over on Facebook by die hard Cruzers who are celebrating this number.....
Media is the big winner here - at the expense of Cruz mostly.. Bernie and Kasich will recover, Cruz I think is damaging himself badly.. too bad I used to really like the guy..
_______________________
The media needs eyeballs on the screen and nothing more. They have to crate drama where none exists. As Gingrich keeps saying, the MSM is wrong over and over again and they expect us to think they have anything valuable to say.
Can you imagine having a candidate where nobody shows up for a rally? That’s kind of a problem don’t ya think?
"Desperation breeds anxiety; anxiety begets a specific strain of blame-casting, and that blame-casting creates visible anger manifested as misery and denial.The denial is emotional, dangerously emotional.
Intellectual honesty, logic and even reality itself must be avoided. This is the reason why we have warned everyone to stay out of the blast radius from the final stages of their rage. Quite simply, it’s toxic."
"However, the type of anger held by our ideological opponents, is intensely toxic and dangerous – and they don’t care who gets damaged as they self-destruct. Avoid these voices at all costs."
"That crossing of the ‘inevitability factor’ threshold is what we have outlined as the most dangerous time. The angriest moment in the denial phase is right before the ideologically entrenched accept an inevitable outcome. Be of good cheer; enjoy the moments and cherish the associations. Walk with a light heart of joy.
Meanwhile ignore the screams, wailing and gnashing of teeth, and take the long way around the camps of the haters."
The rest of the article is filled with many facts and well founded opinions, but those quotes jumped out for other reasons. I believe that they explain a lot of what we see in many places...
trusTEDlusTEDbusTEDconflicTEDdisgusTEDcombusTEDtoasTEDmuTEDmooTEDdefeaTEDexiTED...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.