Posted on 04/19/2016 11:12:11 PM PDT by goldstategop
How bad was Cruz’s night? He’s losing to Ben Carson in some places — a guy who hasn’t been in the race in weeks.
Cruz can still win the nomination on the first convention ballot, mind you, but he needs to win about 88.5 percent of the outstanding delegates, bound or unbound, per Daniel Nichanian’s excellent calculations. That's not likely to happen either.
Trump isn’t the only big winner tonight! Congratulations to John Kasich, who will almost certainly end up with his first delegate in more than a month. Can Kasich pull off a come-from-behind victory? No. The end.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
“next time we’ll pick a real conservative”
Time to face it, the US will never elect a true (dogmatic) conservative. Those days are gone. We couldn’t elect RINO’s, why do you think we could elect a Cruz? Practical conservatism is the way to go. Get used to it.
Planning for the worst.
Note new tagline.
Jedi.
And it’s a deeply creepy set of out takes. It’s like his own family is wary of him.
Cruz said in the last three weeks five states held elections blah blah blah. Let's fact check that.
Oh yeah, maybe he should have said not included Arizona. So the facts are not "five in a row", and the facts are not "five states held elections", etc. That conveniently folds Arizona which held their real vote primary the same night as the Romney caucuses in Utah under the mantle of the earth. REMEMBER THE ARIZONA! lol
Thanks!
I agree Cruz could never win New York in the general election. The thing is I don’t think Trump can beat the democratic nominee there either. He will be able to get closer than Cruz could. But I still think he loses to Hillary. I am not optimistic about our chances to retake the white house.
Exactly what I think will happen. There are many who are so happy to have defeated Cruz that they will be stunned when Trump loses to Hillary. Let’s keep are eye on the prize people. It’s not about sticking it to Cruz, it’s about our country.
I’ve been trying to tell me fellow conservatives this for a while. The demographics simply don’t support a true conservative candidate.
The sad truth is that neither can win.
“Lincoln won on the third ballot.”
True. I just read a Wikipedia article on the 1860 convention. Interestingly, it was Pennsylvania delegates who switched to Lincoln on the 2nd ballot, bringing him close to a tie with Seward.
Although it is a precedent for an upset victory in an open convention, there is a significant difference between the 1860 case and 2016:
Seward, the clear front runner going into the convention, was perceived by many to be a weak candidate to run against the democrats because he was too closely aligned with the radical faction of the party. The concern was that his attempts to broaden his appeal by shifting his positions to the center, were angering his base.
The radical faction of the party believed strongly in abolition without compensation to slave owners, and therefore had a narrow appeal compared to the moderate wing which favored compensation and phasing out of slavery, as had taken place in northern states.
The issue of slavery in 1860 bears no particular parallel with today’s issues, but it did strike me that if I had to compare the candidates, I would say that Cruz is more like Seward, aligned with the strict, principled conservative base of the party, which is less willing to compromise and comprises a narrow voting block. Trump is more like Lincoln, the moderate, willing to compromise, having broader appeal, who could attract independants and crossovers.
Perhaps one could argue that both Trump and Cruz are like Seward, each having alienated certain factions of the party - which would suggest a 2nd or 3rd ballot win is possible for someone, but not for Trump or Cruz.
In any case, I don’t think the Lincoln example offers much in the way of encouragement for those hoping for a 2nd or 3rd ballot win for Cruz.
Thank God someone in tune with reality.
Thanks for making throw up in my mouth...
OH MY GOD!
Hideous Hillary!!
I agree. Me too.
____________________________________
Wow! Does she drink Tap water? That crap has lots of fluoride... The Nazi's used this to control the masses..
Keep her from the fluoride and hopefully this does the trick!
Correct, in oder for conservative values to ever win in the ballot box again we need a cultural revolution. Haven’t seen the beginnings of that yet.
Yeah, Pew has been tracking religious affiliation for years. And every year America becomes a little less religious. I don’t know what the answer is, but part of it has to be taking a look at the social issues. There comes a time when you have to realize what battles are lost.
Because he isn’t an American.
I understand what you’re saying, but if Cruz did the honorable thing, dropped out, and asked his delegates to support Trump how would that NOT utterly block Kasich and the GOP-e?
Asked? That depends on how loyal the Cruz delegates are. Asking is not binding, and most delegates would not take it as such. It’s not even terribly effective unless Trump simultaneously announces that his VP will be Cruz.
At the very least, staying in until all delegates are selected helps because that gives Kasich (a pure establishment candidate, or a bit left of the establishment) fewer delegates. At the very least, staying in until the Convention rules are approved helps because that gives Cruz delegates a personal stake in seeing that the rules protect Cruz, and the rules that would protect Cruz are almost exactly the same as the rules that protect Trump. Once the convention rules are chosen, my view on Cruz staying in may change, depending on those rules. At least for now thogh, both Trump and Cruz have much better odds with Cruz in the race.
I don’t agree. If Cruz dropped out and asked his people to support Trump, I’m sure enough of them would listen to ensure that Trump gets the nomination (if you’re loyal to your candidate, why WOULDN’T you?). Suddenly - game over, and on to Hillary.
Even if they WEREN’T going to listen to Ted, I don’t see why anywhere near the majority of Cruz candidates would go to Kasich, unless they’re all just so deranged now and filled with Trump-hate that they can’t function rationally. Kasich is, after all, far to the left of Trump, who’s to the left of Cruz. Why would they make THAT jump?
While he still getting crushed last night in NY Cruz gave a speech and said he was the only outsider running and republicans all over the country were rallying behind his message. If this character ain’t delusional I don’t know what the word stands for.
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