Posted on 04/17/2016 2:28:31 PM PDT by TaxPayer2000
The latest wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker polled likely primary voters in New York, Pennsylvania and California
Former US Senator for New York Hillary Clinton and Queens-born Donald Trump are both poised to claim victory in New York, according to the latest wave of the YouGov/CBS News Battleground Tracker. Likely primary voters in California, who head to the polls on June 7, are also inclined towards Clinton and Trump. In Pennsylvania, where only Republicans were polled, Trump holds a wide lead.
~~SNIP~~
The Republicans
On the Republican side, Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in New York. Trump garners the support of 54% of likely voters in New York, where he has been a well-known public figure for decades. Ted Cruz is far behind with 21% support, barely ahead of John Kasich with 19%. Trump’s 33-point lead is little-changed from the 31-point lead he held two weeks ago. New York is worth 95 GOP delegates.
Despite weeks of controversy over Trump’s comments about women and abortion, there is little sign of a major gender gap forming in the Republican primary race. In fact, Trump’s support is fairly even across demographic groups, but the non-Trump vote does vary significantly. For example, while Trump earns around half of the vote regardless of self-identified ideology, Cruz leads Kasich by 34 points among “very conservative” New Yorkers and trails Kasich by 17 among “moderate” voters. Similarly, Cruz beats Kasich among Tea Party supporters and trails among the movement’s opponents (while Trump leads with majority support in both groups).
Donald Trump also holds wide lead in Pennsylvania and California, which offer 243 delegates total. In Pennsylvania, which holds it’s primary on April 26th, Trump has 46% support, with Cruz in second with 26% and Kasich in third with 23%.
Trump leads with 49% in California, followed by 31% for Cruz and 16% for Kasich.
Such large leads in delegate-rich states bode well for Trump’s chances of reaching the 1,237 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, a prospect many called into question following Cruz’s recent successes in Wisconsin, North Dakota and Colorado.
However, if he falls short, the polls also find limited support for giving Trump the nomination merely on the grounds of his having more delegates than the other candidates. In California, only 44% say Trump should be the nominee in this scenario – 50% want Kasich and Cruz to fight for support at the convention and another 6% would be happy to turn to someone who isn’t even running right now. Similarly, most Pennsylvania voters would like to see the convention contested. New York is the exception, with 56% backing Trump in the event he musters a plurality of delegates before the convention but not a majority.
The YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is based on surveys of registered voters in New York, Pennsylvania and California. In Pennsylvania, only Republican voters were contacted for this wave. See a more detailed description of the methodology used here.
We know NYS is a loaded Dem state. But don’t be surprised if Bernie does much better than expected in NYS and the days ahead.
Cruz is a loser.
49% is Trump’s largest poll in California. The trend is up.
From red State
They predicted that Cruz would win Texas by 11% – he ended up winning by over 17%. They predicted that Trump would win Virginia by 13% – he ended up winning by less than 3%. They predicted that Trump would tie Kasich in Ohio, but he ended up losing by 11%. They predicted that Cruz would win Wisconsin by 6%, but he ended up winning by 13%.
Based on that I would say Cruz is 8-10% closer than these polls, which is actually very good news.
Cruz will get KO’d in CA.
Taking bets.
"According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 53% chance of winning the California primary."
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-republican/
Ted was predicted to do very well in South Carolina. He wound up getting squat.
Mostly, Ted only wins in places where rank and file voters are frozen out of the process. You can’t win a general election if you can’t win with honest votes in the primary.
Um. Hate to tell you this. He got squat for the first ballot. On the second ballot, let’s just say South Carolina will be Cruz Central.
How much ya want to bet Trump KO’s Cruz in CA by a vote of the people?
Put up or shut up Mr. Iowa.
So Ted is still down by 8% then...yes, that’s very good news. It’s going to be a very long two months for Ted.
Yes, last I checked all 50 states actually VOTE in the general election.
2nd ballot? Not going to need it...
I guess it just depends on how much voter fraud there is.
Ping!
Selected Trump articles on FR, from 12:00 AM to 5:30 PM EDT, 4/17/16:
Clinton, Trump lead in New York and California –YouGov
Trump: Colorado took voters out of election because of me –Wash.Examiner
Hey, Ted Cruz: New York values are everywhere—and they work –MarketWatch
New York Veteran Police Association: Donald Trump ‘Represents the American Way’ –Alex Swoyer
A FReeper discussion on the history of Trump's conservative pro-America positions –posted by Jim Robinson
RNC chief: No changes to delegate requirement likely –The Hill
CA Republican delegate allocation (graphic on Twitter)
Donald Trump Says ‘Rigged’ Convention Should Not Be Met with Violence –NYT
Freedom? (UK Witch Trials) –Rattlesnake
What if Trump really does understand the system? –Joseph Farah
EXCLUSIVE— Trump Campaign: Cruz Staged ‘Attack’ in Georgia to Steal Delegates…’Not Grassroots Activism’ –Breitbart
Badly Injured Iraqi War Hero Leaves Trump Campaign Speechless With STUNNING Message –Conserv.Trib
Poll: Trump Leads In California Republican Primary –CBS Sacramento
The U.S. paid for NATO: $30 trillion and counting (Trump right again!) –AmericanThinker
When watching Trump on TV and praying for him isn’t enough, try this –Kevin Collins
Fox News nomination poll (Trump 45 Cruz 27 Kasich 25) –RedStateWatcher
Woo hoo!! We're back up and running and ready to roll again!! –Jim Robinson
Poll: Donald Trump keeps large lead in New York; ahead in California –CBS
LOVE IT! Ted Nugent: 20 VITAL Reasons to Vote Trump –USHerald
Beck's empire collapses with Cruz; ratings fall, malware, bankruptcy soon? –Prntly
In Campaign and Company, Ivanka Trump Has Central Role –NYT
GOP Convention Official Randy Evans: 1,100 Mark Should Be Enough for Trump –NewsMax
GOP official rails over effort aimed at nomination rules –AP
Saudi Arabia Warns of Economic Fallout if Congress Passes 9/11 Bill –NYT
How US covered up Saudi role in 9/11 –NYPost
Secret 28 pages of 9/11 report under new scrutiny –MSNBC
North Korean official on Trump comments: 'Totally absurd, illogical' –CNN
Cruz’s Coup against Right-Wing Matriarch Phyllis Schlafly –Betsy Woodruff
Live Stream: Donald J. Trump for President rally, Poughkeepsie, NY 3pm EDT –RightSide
Facebook employees manipulate social media to prevent Trump presidency –TheRebel
Why the Establishment is afraid of Trump (video)
Ben Carson: Gid Rid of Electoral College [just no, Ben] –NewsMax
Trump reveals new nickname for Clinton –The Hill
It’s On! Hillary Responds to “Crooked Hillary” Nickname –Jim Hoft (video)
On Sterile Politics, Christianity and Liberty –ArticleVblog
PHOTOS: Anti-Trump Protest at Grand Central Station, Manhattan –Breitbart
African American businessman: ‘Donald Trump is not a racist, guys’ –Vanessa Williams
How Trump Can Lock up GOP Nomination Before the Convention –AP
Trump’s Odds of Winning Way Better than Nate Silver Believes –mishtalk.com
U.N. Human Rights Chief Condemns ‘Ugly’ Tone of U.S. Election –Time
US Election 2016: Top UN official condemns Trump –BBCNews
Woo hoo!! We're running just about even with last quarter!! [FReepathon] –Jim Robinson
Free Republic 2016 Caucus Open Discussion Thread LXXXIX –Windflier
Thank you, dear Albion Wilde!
Trump already has over a thousand California delegate candidates lined up and vetted. Trump’s ground forces are much better organized than Cruzers think, in all 53 CD’s.
There was talk that Cruz numbers were crashing and did not believe it.
This latest California poll is massive.
Wow!
Time to hope the Trump Train.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFlE5KNdOqk
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