Here's the Real Clear politics count, and my workup based on it.
Here's the one from WikiPedia/Green Papers (dif sites, same tally)
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
Well, the only thing I can think of is how much I’m hearing about Cruz somehow stealing delegates after they’ve already been won by Trump.
I admit I don’t know all the ins and outs of the system, but I gotta say, as an outside, it seems pretty weird to me that someone can win delegates only to have them stolen.
BTTT .....
A factor most of the Cruz supporters seem to forget is Trump can buy any delegates votes he is short if hes close but not over.
Here's the Real Clear politics count, and my workup based on it.
Here's the one from WikiPedia/Green Papers (dif sites, same tally)
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
I’ve analyzed the most likely numerical outcomes and believe that Trump will come up somewhere between 60-80 delegates short of the 1237 needed to avoid a second ballot.
If a second ballot is warranted, I also believe Cruz to have a distinct advantage.
Your numbers seem OK. However, to me, the issue is what happens in the likelihood that BOTH are eliminated. There seems to be a high probability of this happening.
Cruz will be eliminated, mathematically, soon, just as Kasich is now, but unlike Kasich, Cruz has enough support (money, organization), to hang on in case Trump doesn’t reach the Magic Number, 1237.
At that point we will know how Reagan felt in ‘76, regardless of the results.
Cruz isn’t stealing anything, He’s playing by the established rules, instead of whining about elected delegates.
These data are incomplete. Does not include uncommitted delegates or delegates released by losers like , Kasich Rubio or SC delegates released from Trump for breaking his pledge to back the nominee.
No, this is not an attack on Trump. My dream scenario is Trump wins in the first ballot, but Cruz wins the VP slot due to large numbers of loyal delegates on the floor.
Having Cruz EARN the VP slot and not be beholden to Trump , is our best chance to check Trump’s overactive ego, unite the team and destroy the Evil hillary edifice that has lived for 50 years.
Trump and Cruz should make rule 40 strong, so Ryan or Kasich can not be nominated.
Time will tell. I’m a lot more apprehensive about what the party leaders might do than I am either of the candidates at this point. Cutesy games will hand the thing to Hillary on a velvet pillow and blaming somebody else won’t help. Eagles up!
At this point, realistically, Cruz has a 0% chance of making it to 1,237 before the convention. Trump has maybe a 10% chance of making it to 1,237 before the convention. 10% is infinitely more (and better) than 0%, but if I were a Trump supporter I wouldn’t hang my hat on it. Bottom line: barring a dramatic shift in the race, neither of them are likely to walk into Cleveland with 1,237.
They will both be eliminated before the convention, Cruz will be eliminated first. That is why Cruz is working so hard at lining up delegates. Brilliant campaign.
494 / 882 = .5600907029478458 * 100 = 56%
Then it goes to a brokered convention and the voters be damned.
The Green Papers show Trump with 759 delegates and Cruz with 514. I think most newser (Trump haters ;-)) have not credited Trump with all of the Missouri delegates that he has won. I believe the MO Secretary of State has now certified their primary election count.
The delegate count is halfway down the webpage.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
Cruz is likely to be mathematically eliminated by the end of this month from getting to 1,237.
Looks like 769 remaining delegates*. Cruz needs 720 of them to win. That leaves him a “margin” of only 49 delegates.
After 4/19, it’s over for Cruz.
* source reference for remaining delegates
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html
You have to factor in the other delegates - the Rubio, K. Etc. - Jim
The first round may result in no winner, so second round, some delegates will move. What portion go Trump. What portion go Cruz.
Kaisich and Rubio are out but potential King makers.
So neither Trump or Cruz can be mathematically eliminated at fhis stage. They are both in he final round.
Wonderful analyses. My sources are telling me that Trump will make a deal with Rubio for VP and blow the lid off this . Cruz and Trump animosity is too great for reconciliation. But if We ( Trump) don’t make a deal, the oligarchy will steal this from the people. It will be the end of the party. Rubio is a bad sweater and of dominutive stature but “he was our future”. The VP only has to go to the Senate on a few occasions. Rubio has practiced that to perfection. He might learn something from Trump. He has 145 delegates and that is just enough to get him a job, which he desperately needs.
Of course the answer will be no, that is why he is focusing on a contested convention rather than expanding his current base. The fact is, the American electorate has voted against Cruz more than they have voted against Trump and so for Cruz to stay in means that it is his arrogant political ego that he serves first and foremost, not the American electorate.
An old tale. The Generals win the war only to have the snake-in-the-grass pols toss it away. And so it is again. The GOPe and Cruz and his allies and sycophants are snakes.
My apologies to real snakes.
Only in a degraded and cowardly society are the rule benders and parliamentarians who “win” by gaming the system tolerated. The scum who create nothing but only invent sly systems to loot the wealth created by their betters. They pretend decency and mortality but everywhere they go their incompetence begets chaos as they stuff their pockets through legal theft and then walk off to the next disaster. In a decent society the ropes would have been deployed a long time ago.