Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
And yes, Ted is whingeing about Kasich and I don't like that either.
But at least Ted is not basically a liberal.
Trump already tried third party (independence ) and ended up hanging with david Duke.
Trump learned....
My point was that the idea of gaining a majority being the way a nominee is chosen leads towards an eventual coalescing of support. The party comes together to support the person who was chosen by the majority of the voters, or was selected as a compromise by the majority of delegates when the voters do not choose a majority leader.
If the "rule" is to become, as many Trump supporters argue now, that the guy with the "most" votes should win even if he doesn't have a majority, then the future races will be different.
Rather than work to find the one candidate that a majority can support, we will see further splintering. The goal becomes just "win more than everyone else," not "win the approval of more than half." Candidates will stay in the race longer and try to block each other more.
It will be about having the biggest faction, not about getting the candidate who can be approved by all.
Yesterday or day before there was material on unassigned delegates. There will be about 300. Iirc. Comment was Trump should get at the least 100
Couldn’t find it right now
It’s not nonsense. If you can’t get to 1237 for the first ballot, you’re mathematically eliminated from winning on the first ballot.
No — Im talking about the people— Voters. Trump has them — You can’t steal them. He has them . You must be for stealing the elections from the people by using thetft ? That’s it. You must me a Karl Rove guy— Maybe you are Karl Rove. ?? tell us!!
Okay Nostradamus, I doubt it, but vote your conscience!
In most cases, they don't have that option on the first ballot. They are bound to vote the way the primary result was. Most of the delegates are GOPe types. They won't necessarily go for Cruz or Trump, but rather, Kasich for example.
Obama was quoted early on to the effect that "I have to work hard to keep from believing my own bullsh!t."
Trump could learn a lesson from Obama in that regard.
why would he? trump most likely won’t get there either. Its going to a open convention.
I watched obama care’s kasich body language closely when asked about this.
The body language of Kasich says that Kasich LOATHES Trump.
I have no idea what you are contriving but is failed in veracity.
Because only the delusional actually believed that nonsense. And Cruz has the delusional market cornered.
Let’s see...pretty much everyone in the country knows that Mitch McConnell is a lying turd, but aw shucks, that Ted Cruz guy just had to trust him first to find out. And doggone it, can you imagine, McConnell LIED to Cruz???!!! Freakin’ school children would know better. So either Cruz has the judgment of a pre-schooler or he was complicit. I’m betting on the latter.
And all available data gives me good reason to be. More than believing Trump will bring in blacks and Latinos and win NY in the general and eliminate the debt in 8 years etc.
A lot more suspension of disbelief on the Trump train.
Yup.
https://www.otherpapers.com/American-History/Lincoln-Outfoxed-Seward-for-the-Nomination/8651.html
Correct. Cruz has 2020 to think about as well as being elected to VP.
Please get this much right at least. I don’t give a rats ass about the first ballot. It’s the SECOND ballot where Ted Cruz wins.
Jim, that is not fair using real math instead of hope/change new math or core math or a combo of the two.
But he doesn’t loathe George Soros’ money.
wow.
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