Posted on 04/07/2016 6:10:31 AM PDT by Rockitz
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, arent officially bound to any candidate. The fight for Californias massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the states 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trumps performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isnt based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
It will be a phyrric victory if he does i will NEVER vote for the gay Cuban Lothario.
But 4,000,000 Americans freed from slavery was.
I would offer the VP to Rubio. He bowed out gracefully and helps take Florida and Virginia. Cruz and Kasich I would dump for trying to sabotage me.
One:One
No crap. Just issues.
Savage or Levin could host it.
Savage would love the attention. Levin has already made the offer.
I am proposing an authentic debate. Not the crap we’ve already seen.
You need to see past the fog. But you’re not alone.
One on one, Trump will have a chance to make Cruz look like an idiot, everyone will see it, and Trump will waltz to victory.
C'mon Donald ... what are you waiting for? What's wrong ....
Not that Lincoln had anything to do with that. The south was going to have their war no matter who was elected.
Yes I must have posted this ten times yesterday. The media is having a field day with hysterical speculation of things that will never happen.
If Trump is a few votes short and I’m not sure that will even happen he will use the 6 weeks or so between the last primary on June 7th and the convention to cut a deal with somebody most likely Kasich. Kasich has 143 delegates and that would be plenty to get the nomination on the first ballot. Trump is not going to walk into a floor fight at the convention it would be too stupid.
Trump needs to get his act together. If Cruz teaches him the importance of a good ground game by the end of the primaries, that will be will worth the stress when Trump has that good ground game for the November general election. Playing a casual game will not cut it against the Clinton Crime Syndicate and the far left. If Trump can’t beat Ted Cruz, he’s not ready for the general election.
Trump needs to find loyal delegates he can choose from PA and push for their selection. He needs a full slate of NJ delegates (last I heard, he didn’t have anywhere close to that), or a sweep of NJ will do no good at all, not even in the first round of voting. The same for several other states. He needs his people involved in choosing state delegates, even where he already won, so that he will get loyal delegates who are not eager to defect.
It’s Trump’s job to demonstrate that he is the master of The Art of the Deal, make the deals he needs to get the right delegates and keep them loyal, and win. He needs to “negotiate great deals” with the unbound delegates from the many states he won and even with the unbound delegates from the relatively few other states. Preferably, he should win on the first round ballot, but he needs to already be working on the second round ballot. If Trump doesn’t win the nomination, knowing at the start that this game is dealt from a crooked deck, it’s his fault. Not Cruz. Not Kasich. Trump.
Trump can win on his own - if he does this right. Trump can win easily if he coordinates with Cruz. Perhaps Trump needs to offer Cruz a great deal. I will be voting for Trump, but if Trump can’t play politics well enough to get the delegates he needs for the convention, I’d rather see Cruz as the nominee.
Rubio did well in VA which we need, FL where I am is most certainly Trump country and does not really need Rubio , but it would help.
Kasich brings OH, but that is it and he way off to the left of Trump.
Cruz if he had not took the holier than thou approach and done his dirty tricks could have been with Trump as VP, but alas that ship has sailed.
The nomination would not be “stolen” from Trump. One has to have something before it can be stolen. He hasn’t won it. If he doesn’t reach 1237, it will be an open convention and delegates will vote as they choose. They just better not choose anyone other than Cruz or Trump.
Face it, Trump was not prepared wit a ground game and a system to manage delegates. He just hired an establishment operative to do this. Behind the curve.
Face it. Cruz is already polling in 3rd place in multiple northern states. Cruz is obviously not prepared for Kasich’s non existential ground game in the Northeast. LOL.
AS the primaries have shown, there is only one viable national candidate and that is Donald Trump. All but deluded never Trumpers can see it.
Rubio did well in VA which we need, FL where I am is most certainly Trump country and does not really need Rubio , but it would help.
Kasich brings OH, but that is it and he way off to the left of Trump.
Cruz if he had not took the holier than thou approach and done his dirty tricks could have been with Trump as VP, but alas that ship has sailed.
There will be no stolen delegates. Not a single one.
I agree completely. There is one other option. Trump and Cruz need to set aside their differences and unify once one or the other is mathematically eliminated.
Precisely!
Every debate (save, perhaps one) has been designed to ridicule the candidates, make money for the network, and divide the Party (I do not identify with the RND.)
I appreciate your comment.
I have no doubt the GOPe’s plan is not to win. They know they can’t without Trump and don’t want to win with Trump. You’re exactly right. So they can’t be threatened with losing to Hillary because they don’t care.
Stolen? You mean stolen like Denver stole the Super Bowl from poor Carolina when cam Newton got squashed by the Denver defense? Stolen like that?
Rules / performance.
Get used to it.
Rules are great. First rule is “don’t piss off the majority of your voters”.
All other rules are secondary.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.