Posted on 04/06/2016 4:23:34 AM PDT by ctdonath2
Here are some ways the Republican and Democratic nominating contests could unfold. Adjust the sliders to see how the outcomes can change. Each line in the charts represents one possible outcome.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
“What I wonder is, what will he do if it becomes mathematically impossible?”
Until Trump gets 1237, or nominated on the first ballot, Cruz can wn the nomination.
Why will Cruz winning the nomination guarantee a Hillary wn?
what are you talking about? The latest poll has Trump up by 31 in New York!
New York Republican Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov Trump 52, Kasich 20, Cruz 21 Trump +31
i see an improbability of any candidate making 1237...
yes, if kasich and cruz dropped out, trump would definitely win, but that can be said of any candidate...
we will see who at the end of the process has the most delegates... good luck to both camps.
one will back the other if he wins, one will take their delegates and stay home if he loses, probably.
No ... on the remote chance that Cruz would prevail in an "open" convention the issues of his citizenship or his financial connections or his infidelities or something else yet to come will be pushed to the limit to prevent Cruz from remaining as the Republican nominee. This will be attributed to the Socialist Democrat Party, but it actually come from the GOPEs.
Very interesting, playing around with it seems to indicate that Kasich staying in is actually better for Trump. If Kasich gets 10% and Donald 42% going forward then he makes the cut, but if Kasich gets 0 and Donald the same 42% then he doesn’t quite make it to the goal line.
Not sure if that is a quirk of the tool or just the way delegates are allocated in the remaining states.
Why will Cruz winning the nomination guarantee a Hillary win?
because trump and his supporters will stay home...
that’s why.
because it can only add up to 100%
take numbers from one, they are allocated to the other according to %
I doubt he believes that. He's probably thinking about 2020 or beyond and putting in the grunt work now.
He's tried to maximize his camera time as a first term senator but that could never give him the name recognition he's gaining now.
he probably figures he can generate GOPe support for 2020 by being the spoiler now. If Trump is the nominee, the GOPe will give him Luke warm support at best and hope for his loss.
By being second this year, things open up for Cruz in 2020 or 2024.
Bigtoona got it right.
I’m afraid that it may be you and other Trumpettes who will turn out to be the tools. Cruz already has more delegates than Trump, but many of them are pledged to vote for Trump on the first ballot, as a result of Trump’s pluralities in the early Beauty contest votes.
And while you guy are focused on Cruz’s pledged delegate count, I’ve been tracking Trump’s. Trump has no chance at this point of amassing sufficient plrdged delegates on the first ballot, and if he doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s yesterday’s news. Cruz OWNS the second ballot, where all his delegates are free to vote for him.
One thing that has become apparent to me over the past couple months is how Trump amd most of his followers exhibit the hallmark of a loser: he an most of you habitually blame others for his and your own failures.
Losers, and sore losers at hat.
You won't have to write in. In the unlikely event that Ryan is forced on everyone, Trump will run 3rd Party.
In fact, I would love to see Trump v Ryan v Bernie.
Cruz needs 94% and Trump 65% of the remaining Delegates.
Cruz only needs less than 723* of the remaining 769.
Trump only needs less than 497* of those 769.
*Delegates from Wisconsin are yet to be awarded.
Cruz will easily pick up most of Rubios delegates and some of Trumps delegates on a second vote.
It’s going to be hard for Trump to pick up 497 more delegates. (Though not impossible)
Oh, you Tedlims! You don't even know the rules of your own home state! Texas delegates must hold to their candidate through the first two ballots.
Tell that to the loyalists. All they are thinking of is saving their little cabal in DC.
Trump will be roughly 100 or so delegates short of the magic number at convention time. Assuming that to be the case, not giving him the nomination would be highway robbery. Not to mention an outrageous thwarting of the voters’ expressed will.
Republicans need to wake up and remember the fact that their last two nominees lost because of poor voter turnout. Yet they are doing everything they can to wind up in the same soup again. Sounds like the definition of insanity to me.
Trump is turning out the numbers everywhere and he’s doing it in spite of the party NOT because of it.
However, I think he’ll do the former and hand the convention to the GOPe.
**********
And which one will the GOPe select? Remember the convention rules haven’t been established
and approved at the Convention. The rules will determine the process who and how the nominee
will be selected if neither has the 1237 during the first vote.
An interesting piece of bird cage liner.
From what I could see there is nothing in the simulation that accounts for the new social media. Like it or not that is what is driving this Presidential election cycle and will probably drive all future cycles.
So, any simulation which doesn’t account for this, and I think it is highly improbable that any will ever do so, is so much useless use of paper, ink, and electrons.
It indicates outer limits. Regardless of nuances, you get likely distributions and see what can’t happen. Set Cruz to 100% of delegates, he still doesn’t win outright. Set Trump to a reasonable cut of delegates, he likely wins outright. Go ahead and apply social media skew as you see fit, see who has what chance.
Try it before dissing it. Yes social media has a big effect, but not as big as you insinuate.
If he really, truly cared about America, he'd already be out. He doesn't give one spit about America, or you and I, or 'upholding the Constitution'. On the very off chance that Cruz actually got elected to POTUS, it would be Dubya Part II. He won't get elected, however, and will go down in history as the biggest stooge for the GOPe.
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