An interesting piece of bird cage liner.
From what I could see there is nothing in the simulation that accounts for the new social media. Like it or not that is what is driving this Presidential election cycle and will probably drive all future cycles.
So, any simulation which doesn’t account for this, and I think it is highly improbable that any will ever do so, is so much useless use of paper, ink, and electrons.
It indicates outer limits. Regardless of nuances, you get likely distributions and see what can’t happen. Set Cruz to 100% of delegates, he still doesn’t win outright. Set Trump to a reasonable cut of delegates, he likely wins outright. Go ahead and apply social media skew as you see fit, see who has what chance.
Try it before dissing it. Yes social media has a big effect, but not as big as you insinuate.