Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[enumerated]

Only the 14 and 3 delegates mentioned in your notes are pledged to the statewide winner. If Trump wins PA, only those 17 will be allocated. The other 54 will go to the convention completely unbound. In 1980, Bush senior win the primary, but Reagan got most if the delegates.

Here’s a good article.

http://www.readingeagle.com/news/article/winner-take-some-how-delegates-are-awarded-in-the-pennsylvania-gop-presidential-prirmary&template=mobileart

[castlegreyskull]

Pennsylvania has 71 delegates not 17.

[castlegreyskull]

California is a winner take all state and Trump has a big lead there.

Maryland is also a winner take all state and Trump is winning there too.

Based on the missing Pennsylvania delegates and your wrong assumption on the California delegates allocation, Trump has more than the 30 short.

[RKBA Democrat]

Well, the gop is obviously trying to force this into a convention. They’re willing to screw the voters and lose the presidency to the hag. All in an attempt to retain power for their minions. But they fail to consider one little problem: scorched earth.

Scorched earth in this context is where millions of pissed off Trump supporters show up at the general and vote against all down ticket republicans. The gop not only loses the presidency as intended, it also loses a healthy amount down ticket.

I think the gop would be better off simply nominating the candidate who gets the most delegates. But if they really want to play for all the marbles and lose badly, then go for it.

[SunStar]

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

I agree with you overall, but on this point, the party has six extra delegates from the Virgin Islands (link) and nine from American Samoa. Also, Colorado is playing games with their 37 delegates (link). And, some states allow delegates to be uncommitted, sometimes for candidates who have dropped out. Pennsylvania, has 54 "soft pledged" delegates (link) and (link). Another one from Wyoming (link), and possibly five from Guam (link), etc.

So, you're correct, but there are unfortunately a lot of delegates that exist which the establishment can use to pump up the numbers for Cruz (or allocate to someone else), especially if Cruz gets close enough. (Yes, they apparently hate Trump so much they are rooting for Cruz -- it's the crazy season.)

[Eccl 10:2]

“Pennsylvania has 71 delegates not 17.”

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Nice catch! Nate’s boys are wrong.

71-17 = 54 more delegates in PA changes everything.

Well done.

[BuckeyeTexan]

If the delegates cannot agree on Trump or Cruz after multiple ballots, I’d take Gingrich, Perry, Jindal, or Walker. (In no particular order.)

[ripnbang]

Do you think he can get that? I’m not sure what states coming up he can get a majority of delegates, unless their caucuses...Montana?

[Jim W N]

Well, the article seems to be saying the voters will be picking the 54. It seems to at least imply to me that the 54 don’t HAVE to commit but maybe MAY commit at the April 26 Primary.

Looks like the same is true with Colorado and Wyoming - the delegates choose whether to commit or remain unbound going into the convention.

[John Valentine]

Nothing in the Wisconsin polling (admittedly a month out of date) makes me think Trump has this state in the bag.

[digger48]

Actually, that has been his entire campaign strategy for the past couple of months

[John Valentine]

California is a winner take all state and Trump has a big lead there.

Neither the first nor the last part of your statement is true. California allocates delegates by congressional district winner. Trump looks to be hanging on to a 5% lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich Still included in the poll. I doubt Trump wins CA.

[Eccl 10:2]

Apparently we are both wrong:

http://blog.constitutioncenter.org/2016/03/the-gop-nomination-math-confusing-and-complicated/

States like Pennsylvania and California, with their huge delegate slates, are considered winner-take-all elections with a catch. In California, there are 53 Congressional districts, each with three votes. The candidate with the most votes within that district gets its three votes. So if Trump wins 25 districts and Cruz wins 25 districts, each gets 75 delegates.

In Pennsylvania, there is a loophole primary, where a proxies for the candidates run in each Congressional district. But 17 of the state’s 71 delegates go to the winner of the state-wide vote.

And in Trump’s home state, New York, its delegates are part of a winner-take-most process. Of the state’s 95 delegates, 81 are selected in 27 Congressional districts. In each district, if a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, he gets all three votes; if not, the top candidate gets two votes, and second-place finisher gets one vote.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

So every state is different.

[Canedawg]

“Perhaps Trump will agree to be Cruz’s Vice President and their combined effort will carry the day.”

Perhaps Ronald Reagan will agree to be George HW Bush’s VP.

Sounds about as logical as what you just said.
*******************************************

That deal may just go down!

[cornfedcowboy]

You continue the race to insure the front runner doesn’t trip over his own feet.

[CatDancer]

Trump also won Missouri. It’s not orange on your map.

[Pajamajan]

I doubt Cruz would drop out for any reason now.

Trump has made this personal, and actually he has from the start- All the "Lyin Ted" bullsh#t, and everything else-Not gonna happen, people might wake up, or it will go to the convention.

Then again Trump has a good chance of getting enough delegates anyway- which IMO still means a loss in the general election.

There is NO WAY Trump will be able to unite the party to support him in November.

And I wonder how much of his own money is he going to spend to run against Hillary? Good luck with getting donations.

In either case Hillary wins :(

[Windflier]

“That deal may just go down!”

What deal? Trump agreeing to run as Ted’s VP? After having won a greater share of the people’s votes, and after having been a world class executive for four decades?

Not a chance in Hades, my friend.

[dennisw]

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

Absolutely true. They will stab him in the back and install John Kaisiche or Paul Ryan. Cruz knows this but figures he can prevail over GOPe back stabbers.

[Political Junkie Too]

Cruz knows this but figures he can prevail over GOPe back stabbers.

And how has that worked for him worked for him so far? They still blame Cruz for the last government shutdown, and the one thing the establishment does well is pay back those who cross them.

-PJ