Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[TEXOKIE]

bttt - thanks!

[chit*chat]

The caucus invites fraud. Read the article from the Utah voter on FR. Why should we the people stand for this? Voters did not line up for Cruz, why should Trump be cheated? Why should voters stand to be disenfranchised?????

[Ingtar]

I missed American Samoa’s unbound delegates. Colorado for GOP is April 8 and 9 for delegate selection.

[Eccl 10:2]

Interesting analysis here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-states-on-trumps-path-to-1237-delegates/

Sorry it doesn’t come out well in this post.

Basically, their panel felt Trump will come up 30 delegates short. Some states of opportunity for Trump include Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado. If I were him, I would start hitting those states “big league” as he is wont to say. But there are others as well.

DELEGATES
DATE CONTEST AVAILABLE PROJECTED FOR TRUMP
3/22 Arizona 58 58
Utah 40 4
American Samoa 9 2
4/5 Wisconsin 42 25
4/9 Colorado 34 7
4/16 Wyoming 14 1
4/19 New York 95 71
4/26 Maryland 38 31
Connecticut 28 19
Rhode Island 19 10
Pennsylvania 17 16
Delaware 16 15
5/3 Indiana 57 37
5/10 Nebraska 36 1
West Virginia 34 33
5/17 Oregon 28 12
5/24 Washington 44 17
6/7 California 172 93
New Jersey 51 51
South Dakota 29 0
Montana 27 0
New Mexico 24 10
New Trump delegates 513
Delegates to date 695
Total 1,208

[Psalm 144]

“I suspect Cruz will abide by any decision that the Bushes and Romney make for him.”

Yep. Even the career breaking, spiteful kamikaze run.

As the OP has demonstrated though, he WAS warned.

[Sybeck1]

@mitchellvii @HouseCracka
Cruz has won 7 caucus states.
1 mixed caucus/primary (TX)
Just 1 full primary state (OK)
Yeah, that's a pattern.— Angelfire (@Angelfi81906197) March 23, 2016

[kara37]

What is Ted’s burn rate. If your losing and using other peoples money how long will they invest in a loser?
***********************************************

Hmm, did you miss the Jeb endorsement today? That may not mean much in terms of votes, but it's massive in terms of money. Jeb has all the money guys, and now Cruz does too.
Face it, We are in this until June. If, and I mean a big “if”, Trump wins this, It will end with CA.

[Psalm 144]

Looking at UT primary results from ‘08 and ‘12 put last night’s into perspective for me…

2012: Romney 93% | Paul 4.7%
2008: Romney 89.5% | McCain 5.4%

Nothing all that anomalous since apparently Utahns vote in creepy lockstep. If anything, Cruz underperformed by only netting 69%.

---

Interesting analysis. He underperformed in in Texas as well, securing the most enfeebled win in 102 years for a home state:

http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2016/03/02/cruz-records-weakest-home-state-gop-primary-victory-in-party-history/

He is weaksauce.

[marron]

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.
But there are only 763 delegates left to win.
As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Good analysis.

Cruz's only hope now is to make common cause with Rubio or Kasich.

Kasich is more likely to go with Trump, which means Rubio is his only chance. And if Kasich sides with Trump, even that's not enough.

There is a further problem; if he puts together a winning coalition, he still needs angry Trump supporters to vote for him in November, which means he still needs the support of the very man he just defeated.

Which means Trump is still in the catbird seat.

So I agree with your solution:

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 1237 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

Its over. Now its just about getting the best possible deal.

[Eccl 10:2]

Every, and I mean EVERY delegate is going to count in EVERY state from here on out.

[Innovative]

It’s definitely time for Cruz to withdraw.

[RC one]

Cruz and Kasick need to drop out then. At this point, they’re just pawns of the leftists who will use them to create chaos in our convention.

[The Mayor]

Great analysis Jeff

[SueRae]

add in Pa. wta, 71 delegates if I’m not mistaken.

Thank you for putting all of this together, Jeff. My brain was hurting today crunching numbers. :-)

[LibsRJerks]

Such a wonderful idea. That’s where Ted belongs and where this country needs him.... Fighting for the right. Let Trump fight for the common man.

Between the two, we could do worse.

[Veracious Poet]

[Jim W N]

Thanks. Colorado is weird. Started March 1st ends April 9th.

The good news is this means Trump has at least 55% of the delegates so far and needs 55% of the delegates of the remaining states to win. So at least % wise, Trump is on track for the needed 1237 delegates.

[enumerated]

Right, the delegates are unbound, but it would still be interesting to know the results of the voting. I wonder why nobody is reporting it.

[GodGunsGuts]

You must have been looking in the mirror when that came to mind. And you know what, I completely agree with your assessment of the man in the mirror.

[ripnbang]

It’s majority of the delegates (50% + 1 of delegates) not 50% of overall % of vote, I believe. There is a significant difference. I may be wrong but I think that is what it is.