Posted on 03/21/2016 10:19:26 PM PDT by Steelfish
Donald Trump Will (Almost Certainly) Never Be Elected President. Here’s Why.
By Greg Sargent March 21
With Donald Trump steamrolling towards the GOP nomination, the political chatter is increasingly focused on whether Trump could win a general election by making surprise inroads into states in the industrial Midwest. Many Democrats and nonpartisan observers see this as probably the only plausible (if that’s even the right word for it) path for Trump, who might do this mainly by running up huge numbers among white voters — particularly blue collar whites.
But a new examination of the demographics and projected voting patterns in some of the key Rust Belt states underscores just how unlikely this really is.
snip)
Given the overall margins that Obama won these states by — which are in some cases quite large — Trump would have to improve enormously on Romney’s performance among blue collar whites:
— In Michigan, where Romney beat Obama by 53-45 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 62-36, an improvement of 18 points.
— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.
— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points. — In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points. (This is lower than the others because Ohio was much closer overall; but even six points is a pretty sizable improvement.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
If Trump is going to lose, why all the panic in the GOP establishment and on the Left?
They can relax and stop worrying. Common Core math (and math) says Cankles will be our next President.
All Hail Hillary!
If Trump can never be president then it is also that Cruz can never be president or any other non-Democrat. Democrat control of the voting process and of much of the vote count is pretty much complete now and the Republican Party will not challenge Democrat shenanigans because of an engineered court agreement they made.
Isn’t the propaganda machine amazing? Isn’t it like so secure in it’s own little world of headlining comfort that is soon to be toppled?
... Cruze or Lose.
Thanks Trumpkins (sarc) if the Donald becomes the republican standard bearer
I am out if he is the nominee. I won’t claim him. The gop can all go rot together.
There has never been such a low-info candidate for president here. He’s like any guy in a bar on a rant who has to walk almost everything back, changes policies frequently and they trust him. His supporters don’t care what his policies are.
And they think he would beat Hillary.
Let's stop with the "disavow" nonsense. Staying on topic is called message discipline. It hurts a campaign to go off message and spend time disavowing every moron who supports or pretends to support some part of your message. I don't want Trump to disavow comments or supporters, and I don't want Cruz to do it either.
Note: I believe Cruz would be the best president among all the candidates who were ever in the race. However, Cruz cannot win on the first ballot at the convention. I strongly suspect that a contested convention would go to Kasich, Jeb, Christie, Rubio, or someone else who supports Amnesty and Obamacare. Trump is my #2 choice overall, but he is the only one with a real chance to avoid a contested convention, so I'll be voting for him - he is far better than anyone else who could get the nomination. It doesn't help Free Republic or America to act like a true conservative is the second coming of Hillary or like Trump's current campaign rhetoric about a competitor he wants to beat (and whom he used to praise) is actually true.
No, that's not gonna happen. But Trump may not win on the first ballot, either.
I strongly suspect that a contested convention would go to Kasich, Jeb, Christie, Rubio, or someone else who supports Amnesty and Obamacare.
If there is no winner on the first ballot, the GOP-e will start moving their "compromise" candidate to the fore.
However, at that point, it will be time for the Cruz and Trump delegates to unite and crush the establishment initiative. Say this happens on the 2nd ballot.
Then, on the 3rd ballot, we might see a Cruz vs Trump head-to-head showdown. And you would have your winner...
The question is whether the Cruz/Trump delegates are loyal to Cruz and Trump or merely obligated to vote for them on the first ballot. I have serious doubts about their loyalty, especially under pressure.
Yes..l
I didn’t bother to click on the article. The excerpt was enough.
The author has written a fatuous screed. He makes the fatal flaw that Fat Bottomed Girl will get the same percentages of the voting populace as Ears.
Herself (miss Screeching Voice) doesn’t have a prayer of that.
Guaging by the commitment of each candidates' supporters here on FR, I'd guess that their delegates might be more loyal than the usual the usual party hack's.
Washinton ComPost speaking. If this were so, they would be pushing him. Clearly liberal disinformation.
Trump is not Romney and Hilary is not Obama and the Republican party is still at war and the media is in high slander mode against Trump with half the Republican party chiming in with them.
If the Republican party can unify after this bloody fight with Trump getting the nomination, then if the high slander drum beat and nasty thug tactics of the left can be exposed, then Dilbert might be right about this one...Trump in a landslide.
Trump has negatives, but so does Hilary. Trump has excitement, Hilary does not. Both have stinky crap in their past, Hilary has more. They both have remarkable charisma. Trump in the positive direction. Hilary in the negative direction.
Having been asked to be a delegate for three candidates this year, I disagree.
My goodness, why the popularity...???
I've worked for them (political pollster, now retired) - they know and trust me.
I remember being at home the very day Ronald Reagan was elected President of the US. For weeks before, the leftist media (Yes, they were left, even then, but I was young and stupid and thought they were truthful)were reporting that he would lose. On election day, they were reporting that he would lose badly. When the votes were counted, Ronald Reagan won by a landslide. Maybe the organized crime so evident now in the political world has changed things..Maybe the people who lie to the pollsters are fewer in number, maybe the polls are fair. Still you cannot trust them. The unseen hands are out there talking over neighborhood fences and among themselves where they gather for coffee and donuts. Most have never been polled. Here is an original thought..MAYBE THE POLLSTERS LIE OR MAYBE THEY HALLUCINATE. If the dictators, on both sides, who are in our faces, letting us know that, “Ha-Ha, your vote doesn’t count. You thought we were servants for you. Well, in the dark of night and over the years, we decided that we know best, and, so, get over it. You now live in a dictatorship.” Folks, once the nose of the camel is under the tent, it is very hard to turn it back. Whether or not you have been for Donald Trump, you had better be for him now. It is the last chance to show the dictators that they miscalculated about whether your vote still counts. You do not want martial law, where the powers that currently be, will jail you or shoot you if you do not obey their rules. If you think that is a crazy idea, do some heavy duty research on past history and think again. The majority vote of the people has to rule.
So we should elect Trump because he’s a great parent and a hard worker? Good to know. Coherent and workable policies would be nice but hey, he’d a great dad so that makes up for it.
Cruz will do much worse than Trump. Abusing to latest polls and Lying Ted math he is rejected by 76% of Primary voters alone. He’ll be slaughtered in a general.
According to latest polls.. Sorry, it’s early.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.