[okie01]

However, Cruz cannot win on the first ballot at the convention.

No, that's not gonna happen. But Trump may not win on the first ballot, either.

I strongly suspect that a contested convention would go to Kasich, Jeb, Christie, Rubio, or someone else who supports Amnesty and Obamacare.

If there is no winner on the first ballot, the GOP-e will start moving their "compromise" candidate to the fore.

However, at that point, it will be time for the Cruz and Trump delegates to unite and crush the establishment initiative. Say this happens on the 2nd ballot.

Then, on the 3rd ballot, we might see a Cruz vs Trump head-to-head showdown. And you would have your winner...

[Pollster1]

However, at that point, it will be time for the Cruz and Trump delegates to unite and crush the establishment initiative. Say this happens on the 2nd ballot.

The question is whether the Cruz/Trump delegates are loyal to Cruz and Trump or merely obligated to vote for them on the first ballot. I have serious doubts about their loyalty, especially under pressure.