Posted on 03/18/2016 12:44:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The new Emerson College poll for New York provides some good news for Donald Trump — for now, anyway. With more than five weeks to go before the Empire State’s primary, Trump trounces Ted Cruz for the state’s 95 delegates by more than 50 points, 64/12, with John Kasich only getting 1% despite his big win in Ohio. That puts Trump well over the 50% threshold for winner-take-all allocation, while leaving Cruz and Kasich well below the 20% threshold for any allocation in the event of a plurality. Trump, the home-state candidate, also gets the most favorable marks in the GOP field, +48 against Cruz’ +8 and Kasich’s +20. The small sample of 298 likely Republican primary voters leaves the margin of error at 5.6%, but with gaps like these, the MoE is an afterthought.
However, when it comes to the general election, the news looks worse — much worse, in fact, for the argument that Trump will expand the GOP map:
Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
The MoE on the full survey is a much more reasonable 3.5% on a sample of 768 likely general-election voters, so these numbers are a little more solid. The only bright spot for Trump in the general-election numbers is that Cruz does worse at 61/30, but that’s a cold comfort in a general election, where Electoral College votes are winner-take-all.
Furthermore, these numbers are almost exactly the same as two successive Siena polls got in the past two months, surveys with even larger sample sizes and a traditional live-call model. In February, the race was 57/32 Clinton, and two weeks ago Siena had it at 57/34. That’s close to the margin by which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 (62/36). All three polls show no upside for Republicans by having Trump on the ticket, not even with New York being his home state and the base of his business operations. Clinton may be underperforming Obama, but not by much.
Of course, the general election is still seven-plus months away, but that would only matter if New Yorkers hadn’t gotten to know Donald Trump well (or Hillary Clinton, for that matter) before now. Trump’s ubiquitous in New York, though, and voters there know him better than voters in most other states, with the possible exception of Florida — where Trump actually looks more competitive, but where Republicans have been much more competitive in presidential elections anyway. Romney only lost Florida by a percentage point, getting to 49%, while the RCP average of head-to-head polling there has Trump down 2.2 points … and Trump going no higher than 47% in any of them.
Given this lack of change over Romney’s 2012 performance in New York, where’s the evidence that Trump expands the map? If at this point Trump can’t get to 40% in his home state in head-to-head polling, what makes anyone think that Trump could beat Hillary in California or Massachusetts, or even in Pennsylvania or Michigan? The theory that Trump expands the Republican general-election map and provides a new path to 270 has no evidence supporting it. Right now, it looks like pure fantasy.
President Hillary Clinton will attend Donald Trump’s next wedding.
Yeah its New York, too far gone, what next, will they do a head to head match up with Trump and Clinton in Vermont LOL
I think Trump has some ground to make up in NY and if anyone can do it, he can. He has just barely started on Hillary.
The attack ads and media sycophants will be hellacious toward Trump but they may overplay their hand. Trump is not to be underestimated— he’s a uncanny teflon boomerang.
Polls are lies. Unless they show Trump leading. Then they are perfect and not to be questioned.
New York City votes 80-20 for Democrats in the general elections. There is no way a Republican is going to win in New York no matter what his name is.
We’ll just need to see who nets more overall votes.
Trump or Hillary? I’m predicting a record GOP turnout.
Maybe if his own party would support him instead of actively working against him, he would be doing better in New York....
Reagan didn’t carry New York City.
No Republican is ever going to carry it. Upstate is solid red.
The swing suburban counties will decide the election.
In essence, this poll is saying that Trump actually betters Romney and McCain's efforts by ~10%.
If that is true, and if it generally carried nationwide, We'd be looking at Trump taking all of Romney's states from 2012, plus Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada in November. It would be a blowout for Trump.
That worked so well between Rick Lazio and Hillery didn't it.
Thanks for looking up the relevant data.
That’s what I’m thinking.
17 points isn’t that hard to overcome, especially when he’s from there.
That will make a boatload of states easy pickups.
Let’s all remember the poll that had Hillary beating Sanders in Michigan by 21 points. Then she lost to Sanders.
“Once it is pointed out that Hillary is a carpetbagger and Trump is a true New Yorker he will probably win.”
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Didn’t she grow up in Park Ridge, IL? I grew up not far from there. Suburban Chicago (and she still has the accent).
Although she did try on an African-American accent, didn’t she? She was “no ways tired” then ... imagine how tired she must be now. She is driven.
Well, I’m under no illusion that Trump will overcome a 17 point deficit in New York and win the state.
But then again, he doesn’t have to.
If we were really to see a general 10-point swing toward Trump and from the Democrats nationwide, the results would be, to use the term, YUUUUUGE.
BTW, we should also note that Ed Morrissey was simply wrong in his claim that this poll represents no change from Romney’s performance in 2012. Eddie’s off by ~10%.
That’s New Yawk!
They put in DiCOMMIEo for mayor.
San Francisco of the East!
Propaganda.
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