Posted on 03/15/2016 10:25:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The two leading GOP campaigns intend to muscle the Ohio governor out of the race.
Advisers to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz say there's no way they'll allow John Kasich to even compete at a contested national convention -- let alone prevail.
Trump and Cruz are betting that their dual dominance in the delegate hunt will permanently box out the Ohio governor, who has no mathematical path to the nomination and is openly pursuing a floor fight at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. And their aides say Kasich won't even make it to the floor.
"There is virtually zero chance he can even be nominated," Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican national committeeman who's advising Cruz on his convention strategy, told POLITICO. "It's a two-man race."
Their confidence is rooted in the fact that Trump and Cruz are nearly certain to control the lion's share of the 2,472 delegates participating in the July convention. Together, they've earned more than 1,000 delegate slots to Kasich's 136. And those delegates will ultimately approve the rules that govern a contested convention.
In addition, a rule adopted at the 2012 convention -- pushed by supporters of Mitt Romney to box out Ron Paul -- requires that any candidate eligible for the nomination win the majority of delegates in eight states or territories. In 31 contests so far, Kasich's only win came Tuesday night in Ohio -- his home state -- and it's unlikely he'll command majority support in seven of the remaining 20 contests.
There's a small chance Cruz could fail to meet the target as well. He's only won majority support in four contests so far. Trump, with a dominant win in the Northern Mariana Islands early Tuesday, became the first candidate to cross the threshold.
To be sure, the convention rules will get a thorough review and revision when delegates convene in Cleveland, raising the possibility that the threshold to participate could be lowered, making room for Kasich. But with Trump and Cruz delegates at the helm, it's unlikely they'll adjust it to help a rival.
"The Cruz folks would never allow the rules to be changed and of course we wouldn't either," said Barry Bennett, who's coordinating Trump's convention strategy. "The laws of math are not amendable."
Trump's resounding wins in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina on Tuesday may preclude a contested convention altogether. If he secures the support of a majority of delegates over the next three months, he would enter Cleveland as the presumptive nominee and head off any challenge to his supremacy. But Kasich has predicated his candidacy on the notion that no one will have a majority entering the convention. What's been unclear until now is that even if he's right, Kasich may have little reason to hope he'll get the party's nod.
A Kasich spokesman said the naysaying only fuels the governor further. "With so many states still to go, and the map becoming increasingly Kasich-friendly, there's little doubt we will be going all the way to Cleveland," said the spokesman, Rob Nichols. " The same people trying to write us off at the convention were also trying to write us off for the first debate, for New Hampshire, after South Carolina and countless other times. How'd that work out? We're very comfortable with our place, our strategy and our future."
In that vein, Kasich's campaign foreshadowed its plans for a convention brawl late Tuesday, naming Stu Spencer and Charlie Black -- two veterans of the last contested convention, the 1976 fight between President Gerald Ford and an insurgent Ronald Reagan -- to his national strategy team.
Tom Rath, a Kasich adviser from New Hampshire and veteran of the Republican convention process, said Trump and Cruz's advisers may be overlooking the role of politics at the convention. If a contested convention arrives, and Kasich is dramatically outpolling Trump and Cruz against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, convention delegates may make judgments based on political calculus.
"It's a political convention and sooner or later, the realities of the moment politically, which we cannot foresee now, will overwhelm all the process in the world," Rath said. "You cannot make a judgment about what could happen until you know the political context within which that action is happening."
Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican Congressman and Kasich supporter, added that convention delegates must consider who can win in November as part of their process. "The rule of the party is to make sure to advance the best candidate for the general election. I think all the delegates are going to have to sit down and think this through very carefully.
Rath said that if Trump and Cruz are unable to break a deadlock to hand one of them the nomination, convention delegates can suspend their rules -- including the eight-state threshold -- to give other candidates the chance to put their names forward. Paul Ryan, who as House speaker presides over the convention, would preside over that process -- and his determinations on suspending convention rules could carry the day. Rath added that a deadlocked situation could also elevate Kasich as critical tie breaker -- perhaps the key to assembling a winning coalition.
Morton Blackwell, a Republican national committeeman from Pennsylvania who has attended every national convention since 1964, said he foresaw the obstacle that the rules would cause and pressed to revise them at a meeting in January, before any primary contests had been held. He was ultimately shot down. He says he's concerned that any attempt to lower the threshold now -- at the expense of Trump and Cruz -- would be viewed as an attempt by insiders to rig the convention against the two anti-establishment candidates.
"Reintroducing it now would be a cause of war," he said. "I don't want the scandal of a change in the rules ... I think we're much more likely to lose if there's an attempt to change the rules no matter who it helps or hurts."
Cruz himself won’t make it to the floor either if he can’t win outright majorities of delegates in at least 8 states/territories.
The arrogance of this guy just turns my stomach. First he, himself, admits he is in the wrong party and would be more comfortable as a Democrat. Perhaps this is why he feels he can just waltz in (after doing nothing but talk), be handed the scepter and nomination with no hard work and effort put forth. The men who worked their butts off are denied why? So this goody two shoes is crowned. Not likely, but one never knows. And what does the MFM do? They embrace him. Where would he go in attempting to go up? For him there is definitely a ceiling and he’s reached that point. The party has not done the base any favors and the harm far outweighs the good that its done. The business of manipulating the numbers has never been more clearly seen than today. Not only our ‘party’ but the other party as well. Time has come to eliminate the party and begin a more honest journey on the road to the WH It’s no wonder the Republicans want to keep common core. Those taught using that system are taught nothing and remain at a disadvantage thru life
See my:
2016-0316 Primary Election Numbers and Analysis
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410028/posts
Look at the GOP Analysis Section for my recommendation to avoid any Kasich or other GOPe effort to broker the convention.
Not without making Barack Obama illegitimate.
Governor John Kasich needs to be back in Ohio demanding the return of that North Korean student who is a resident of Wyoming, Ohio.
Anyone stupid enough to go to North Korea deserves what they get.
“They have been planning to throw this to an open convention and nominate Jeb for months. The only way to avoid this is for Trump or Cruz to get 1237 so that they can lock it up on the first ballot.”
I think there is another way if Cruz would agree to the VP slot. Together they will have plenty of delegates.
BS.
I live here. I have been following elections for two decades. Everybody who lives here knows it was fraud. There are people up in Cleveland talking about the fraud.
I called this the Monday night.
I also suspect they tried to steal Missouri and couldn’t pull it off.
He needs to go away.
Kasich “the spoiler” beat Trump by just 11 points in Ohio..his ONLY win... ...He’s dreaming of playing king maker at convention and wants to see the party duke it out on his home turf in Cleveland. He looks to “win” something out of this and likely will walk away unscathed eventually.
Kasich’s campaign named Stu Spencer and Charlie Black — two veterans of the last contested convention, the 1976 fight between President Gerald Ford and an insurgent Ronald Reagan — to his national strategy team.
Kasich isn’t going to step down by any means...even if he knows he won’t win he’s going to play in this match if for no other reason then being the spoiler to Cruz and Trump til convention.
I have a hunch that could happen. Let's see if there's a softening in attacks within the next few days, as that would be a signal.
I'm no longer a Cruz fan, but as a VP nominee, the party and the base would have a compromise with Trump. Politically speaking, if the citizen question is satisfactorily clarified, if would seem logical.
Kasich will have the elites behind him for a time at convention....just to throw off Cruz or Trump...same with Bohners nominating Ryan.....they’re trying to muddy the waters.
“I don’t see the “Anybody but Trump” crowd going to Cruz, or vice versa.”
The “Anybody but Trump” crowd is simply the GOPe. I don’t believe there is such a crowd in the electorate.
(c) Ayahuasca
“Besides, if Cruz is the VP on the Trump ticket, the left/communists will remove the Trump/Cruz ticket on constitutional ground - that Cruz is not eligible to be VP!”
Nope, Trump would just have to pick another as VP. Same as would happen if the VP candidate were to die between the nomination and the election.
I thought that the rules have already been changed, freeing the delegates on the first ballot. They did that in 2012 to make sure that the Libertarians were shut out.
I wonder whose coat he was wearing in the pic.
I thought that the rules were already changed, freeing the delegates on the first ballot. It was done in 2012 to shut out the Libertarians.
I think that is the reason that the Libertarians latched onto Trump. They tried destroying the Conservatives and working with McConnell through Rand Paul. That didn’t work out, so now they are out to defeat the Establishment, too.
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