Posted on 03/10/2016 5:07:48 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Republican lawmakers are warily eyeing the possibility of a brokered convention that could force party leaders to choose between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and celebrity businessman Donald Trump for their presidential nominee.
It is, they say, a very difficult choice. From their perspective, it’s picking between the devil they know and the devil they don’t know.
Many GOP senators have declined to state their preferences publicly while the race remains competitive. Privately, they are flummoxed at the possibility of likely having to choose between two candidates they view as highly problematic.
Lawmakers who spoke to The Hill on background say they are wavering over who would be the better nominee — or more bluntly, the lesser of two evils.
Trump is generally viewed as having a better chance of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and less of a negative impact on Republican candidates down-ballot in the general election. But the idea of him in the Oval Office makes some GOP senators uncomfortable.
“Trump would have a better chance against Hillary Clinton and wouldn’t be as bad for Republicans in other races, but I think Cruz would make a better president,” said one GOP senator who requested anonymity.
“Trump wouldn’t have as much of an impact down-ballot because it would be easier for us to disassociate from him,” the lawmaker stated.
Lawmakers said they had a hard time distancing themselves from former Missouri Rep. Todd Akin (R) and former Indiana treasurer Richard Mourdock in 2012 after they made controversial comments on rape and abortion.
Some think it would be easier to create distance from Trump because he’s running as a businessman new to politics who supported Republicans and Democrats in the past.
A Republican senator argued the recent primaries in Alabama and Arkansas, which Sens. Richard Shelby and John Boozman won with 65 percent and 76 percent, respectively, show that Trump may help GOP candidates by boosting turnout.
“Set aside Trump’s disadvantages. He would probably bring out a lot of people to vote. If you look at Shelby’s and Boozman’s primaries, Trump won their states and they won big,” he said. “So it looks like people who come out to vote for Trump are comfortable voting for the Republican Senate candidate.”
The idea of Trump in the Oval Office, however, makes stomachs churn on Capitol Hill because he is so unpredictable. And while the billionaire may have helped Republicans in a deep red state, how will he affect vulnerable Republican senators in purple and blue states in November?
Cruz, meanwhile, is the least popular member of the Senate, though his colleagues say at least they have an idea of what to expect from him.
“It’s a Hobson’s choice. Cruz is more predictable. Predictability is comforting in politics,” said another Republican senator, who agreed that Trump has more upside potential against Clinton because of his appeal among blue-collar voters in the battleground states of the Upper Midwest.
“The thing with Trump is he’s unpredictable. You really don’t know how he would act as president,” the lawmaker added.
More than 50 conservative national security and foreign policy experts released a letter last week panning Trump as unfit to serve as commander in chief.
Trump pledged Tuesday night after winning victories in Michigan and Mississippi that he would adopt a more presidential tone in office.
“I can be more presidential than anybody,” he told supporters at a rally in Florida. “If I want to, I can be more presidential than anybody.”
Republican senators won’t get to vote for the nominee in Cleveland, where the convention will be held in July, but they may have influence as senior party officials if Trump or Cruz fail to win on the first ballot.
“I don’t know how it works. It’s uncharted territory,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the party’s standard-bearer in 2008.
A well-funded coalition of anti-Trump Republicans has emerged, but giving the nomination to someone else if he wins the plurality of delegates could prompt a revolt by his supporters.
“A legitimate question is, suppose they have a brokered convention and they don’t pick Trump? What does he do?” McCain added.
Trump has 458 delegates, while Cruz, who’s in second place, has 359, according to The Associated Press. Trump would need to win 54 percent of the remaining delegates and Cruz just over 60 percent to reach the 1,237 needed to clinch the nod outright.
If neither candidate reaches the magic number, the nominee may be decided by two, three or more rounds of balloting at the convention in Cleveland. A larger proportion of the delegates will become unbound with each successive vote, giving them more and more discretion to pick the party’s standard-bearer.
Trump will take a major step toward avoiding a brokered convention if he wins Florida and Ohio, two large winner-take-all states, which will allocate delegates after the March 15 primaries.
Republican senators say Trump has proven himself to be a formidable political force. However, they question whether he’ll stick to conservative policy tenets once in office.
“Trump doesn’t have much of a political compass. He has the ability to redefine himself over the course of a debate,” said another GOP senator. “My concern with Trump is there’s a greater likelihood of the pendulum swinging to the left of center with him in office.”
On the other hand, the lawmaker fretted that Cruz as president would routinely swat down bills passed by Congress if they contained elements of compromise.
“With Cruz I’d be worried about opposition along the lines that things don’t go far enough,” the GOP senator added.
Republican senators say Trump could prove a stronger general election candidate than Cruz because of his appeal to independent voters, but the polling has been contradictory.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey shows that Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is also vying for the Democratic nomination, would beat Trump by double-digits in a general election match-up. The same survey showed Cruz trailing Clinton by only 2 points and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) tied with her at 46 percent.
But other polls show Trump beating Clinton in the key battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who dropped out the 2016 presidential race in December, has suggested that Republicans should rally around Cruz.
Cruz and Graham spoke on the phone last week but Graham, who quipped that having to choose between Trump and Cruz is like picking between “being shot or poisoned,” said he doesn’t have any plans to make an endorsement.
“I go back and forth between them,” another GOP senator told The Hill Wednesday. “They’re both so unpredictable.”
The legislator added that he and his colleagues have been reluctant to come out publicly against Trump because they fear endorsing a rival would only backfire.
“A lot of us are afraid, well not afraid, but reluctant to come out for someone because it will probably help Trump. Trump will just say, ‘See, there goes the establishment,’” the Republican senator said.
On the other hand, the lawmaker fretted that Cruz as president would routinely swat down bills passed by Congress if they contained elements of compromise.
“With Cruz I’d be worried about opposition along the lines that things don’t go far enough,” the GOP senator added.
There you go - the choice is a consistent conservative or a wheeler-dealer who many in the Establishment recognize will make deals with them.
Tell me again, who is the choice conservatives - that Americans, should support?
Tell them they can quit worrying, Trump will have a majority of the delegates before the convention. Too bad for all talk do nothing establishment boy Teddy.
I know you tend to get strong opinions to your posts, but I enjoy them, so don’t stop!
My preference is Trump 1, Cruz 2. I am really glad the GOPe has these as the only two choices left.
In my view Cruz’ best fit is SCOTUS.
If I could predict the GOP ticket, it would not be Trump/Cruz (although that’s a really good one).
I would think that if I had to place a bet as to the GOP ticket, it would be Donald Trump / Scott Walker.
Go to Drudge for the full article.
If the nomination is stolen from Trump, Republicans will have difficulty winning anything, right down to local dog catcher. Why? Those new voters are gonna vote, and they’ll be mad as *ell.
Ironically, the reason Trump got the traction he has is precisely because too many Republican Senators, and Congressman, did not stick to the policy tenets they campaigned on. The whole anti-establishment sentiment that has propelled Cruz and Trump was borne of that failure of elected Republicans to stick to those policy tenets.
No, just keep your mouth shut and vote. Then support the winner. How hard is that?
TRump : tough choice/
Cruz : Shades of Reagan.
“I go back and forth between them,” another GOP senator told The Hill Wednesday. “They’re both so unpredictable.”
Gee, that’s too bad, Linda.
“Republican senators say Trump has proven himself to be a formidable political force. However, they question whether he’ll stick to conservative policy tenets once in office.”
Pot meet kettle.
It is precisely because of the extreme conservatism that many conservatives find Cruz distasteful and are not voting for him.
Cruz is in fact not attracting enough conservatives to win
Agree. The nomination I see it as Trump’s to lose. So if Trump goes to the convention with the most delegates and doesn’t get the nomination, a good chunk of his supporters could easily say, “screw it,” and stay home.
If the GOPe wants to maintain their gravy train, they will try and steal the nomination. My guess is that if they have a can’t miss strategy to do that but at the same time maintain control of the House and Senate, they’ll do that in a heartbeat.
Would not surprise me if they are wargaming how to screw Trump AND Cruz while conning the GOP voters to come vote anyway for GOP Reps and Senators.
“just keep your mouth shut and vote.”
Can she wear shoes? Leave the kitchen?
Bernie Sanders
When he gets screwed by the Clintons most of his supporters will stay home and a few will vote for the GOP candidate ( a lot will vote gop if it is trump)
So a vote for Bernie means not- Hillary more than voting for a gop RINO
How about letting the voters decide? I guess it would be too much for the elitist scumbags to do that, though. They have all lined up behind Ted now and we’re all supposed to vote for Ted to “stop Trump”.
Screw that. Sounds like more of the same, to me.
Easy choice:
Trump, a liberal RAT under cloak who will lead to the destruction of the Republican Party.
Cruz, an unashamed Conservative who will lead to the energizing of conservatism.
Sure they hate both, but one leads to their demise, the other leads to a rise of conservatism, but at least they still have a shot of playing a part in the game.
Trump will lead to their absolute destruction, as the party WILL crumble if he is nominated.
If you think otherwise, you are kidding yourself.
When did Reagan ever scorn patronize and insult any group of GOP voters by calling them white trash ( ie, “ low informatioan”)
When did he ever jump on a KKK meme and call his GOP opponent a racist?
Cruz is no Reagan. He is Greg Marmalarde from “ Animal House”
and Trump started a GOP food fight like Blutowski
Look who won at the end!
The one wheeling and dealing is the guy who have brought Neil BUSH on board for financial advice, is meeting with Jeb, and who has “accidentally” voted for TPA and promoted TPP.
And there’s the lie about Canadian citizenship.
I don’t trust Cruz.
“Beep beep beep” (Sound of Trump-truck backing up)
Donald the driver, “Load all those used up Cruz conservative robots, I'll take them back to the brand new American factory and have newly employed Americans refurbish them.”
Anytime RINOS face an agonizing choice, it’s a good day for America.
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