Posted on 03/09/2016 1:56:08 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Earlier today Ed Morrissey wrote about a new NBC/WSJ poll showing Donald Trump could lose to Hillary Clinton by double digits in a general election. An ABC/Washington Post poll also published today has similar findings:
Should this matchup come about, the current advantage is Clinton’s. She leads Trump by 50-41 percent in vote preference among registered voters, her widest advantage in three ABC/Post polls since September. Among all adults, including those currently not registered, Clinton’s lead swells to 54-36 percent. And the public by 59-36 percent predicts that Clinton would win — up from a 12-point gap on this question in January to 23 points today. (Some political scientists suggest that, early on, expectations outdo preferences, predictively.)
If you’re keeping track, 50-41 is actually a better result for Trump than the NBC poll which has the matchup at 51-38. Still, looking at the details it’s not hard to see why Trump is in trouble. He trails Clinton in almost every personal metric including honesty:
The big one though might be empathy. You may recall that Obama’s re-election race in 2012 became a contest between Mitt Romney the competent manager and Barack Obama the likable, empathetic President. On the question of who really cares about people “like you” Obama always had the advantage. And as it happened a major storm hitting the east coast days before the election gave Obama a chance to demonstrate that empathy for voters.
There’s a reason Hillary is touring the country saying things like, “I believe what we need in America today is more love and kindness.” That’s not a policy it’s a pose. But the important point is she’s doing it because it has frequently worked in the past and will probably work again in 2016.
Trump does a little better when it comes to policy areas, though here again he is trailing on every issue including immigration:
Now it’s certainly possible that some of the 1,000 respondents to this poll have a detailed knowledge of both Trump’s and Clinton’s positions on each one of these issues. However, I suspect it’s more likely that the majority of respondents are giving a gut response answer based on a few things they’ve heard, i.e. Trump wants to ban Muslims and deport immigrants while Hillary was Secretary of State. Those factoids become the basis of answers to questions about terrorism, immigration and international crisis. And as ABC points out, a majority of Americans don’t like some of Trump’s most discussed ideas:
Trump’s challenged, as well, by the fact that Americans by 63-33 percent oppose his suggestion to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country, and by 61-36 percent disagree with the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Those views are closer among registered voters, but still with majorities opposed, 60 and 58 percent, respectively.
The strength and boldness of these positions obviously appeals to a plurality of GOP voters, but a majority of Americans probably just see them as unkind. And in a general election, unkindness loses to the person talking however ham-handedly about “love and kindness.”
To further the point, where Trump does appear to do well is where he expresses his own version of love and kindness. Maybe you’re thinking he’s not doing that at all but you’d be wrong. When it comes to veterans, who he promises to take care of, when it comes to people who have lost jobs to outsourcing who he promises to help find jobs for again–Trump does express empathy for people and it does draw people to him. In fact, Trump’s frequent focus on trade issues and the need to do better for people struggling in a stagnant economy is probably why he is so competitive with Clinton on the economy in this poll.
This election isn’t a battle of detailed policy positions. Hillary Clinton knows that. At base, what is working (and also not working) for Trump is the same thing working for Clinton. The person elected in 2016 is probably going to be the person who is strong, competent but who really seems to care about the issues (lack of jobs, poor treatments of vets, etc.) that matter to the largest share of the electorate.
That is the biggest line of BS ever posted. Laughable really.
And Reagan started with a 35 point deficit to Jimmuh Carter and Jimmuh promised never to tell a lie while Hillary has promised never to tell a truth. My money is on the rich guy.
Cruz may be most conservative but he’s too religious to appeal to many voters.
Reagan, on the other hand, was somewhat conservative but he most certainly did not wear his religion on his shoulder and push it in everyone’s face. That was his appeal. Conservative and religious-neuteral.
Cruz’s mistake was preaching all the time. Now he wants to “tone it down” for broader appeal, but the image has been made. Religion is a very personal thing and should remain that way, especially in the political world.
Oh, and Beck didn’t help Cruz... at all.
These polls come at a time when Trump has been under unprecedented attack from the right (and the left, for that matter) in a bitter GOP primary where party ‘leaders’ have been behaving shamefully. It’s not surprising that he’s down for now. Also remember that the NBC/WSJ polls have been very unfavorable to Trump throughout his entire candidacy thus far and ABC/Wash Post is not far behind. Don’t forget that 2 recent polls (SUSA and PPP) found Trump ahead in Florida. So let’s just stay calm and hope that Trump emerges from the primary soon so he can start rallying all Republicans to his cause.
Trump is still winning in spite of the lies posted daily by the DSTers.
The hate for Trump is real. Do not dismiss this. Some people see him the same as Hillary or worse.
So how long are we to ignore these polls, or write them off to anti establishment paranoia? Fact is, Trump is the weakest candidate vs Clinton, and would loose head to head to any other Republican in the race. I find it hard to believe that we can nominate someone who only gets, soaking wet, only 40% of the Republican vote, and is openly opposed by the other 60%.
Clinton must not be POTUS.
Since we don’t have a national election by way of popular vote wins, but actually have the Electoral College, such polls are really not very useful.
Polls on a state by state basis, with a large and honest sample from all over each state (not concentrated in cities), may be more useful.
Polls with only registered voters are also not particularly useful. Likely voters are much more useful.
All in all, polls such as these are almost always published to sway opinion, not to accurately reflect opinion.
Bull. Crap.
Trump shut up Bill Clinton in a few days. Trump will destroy Hillary.
How many different “polls” are there floating around? First its Trump over Clinton, then its Clinton over Trump, then it Trump over Clinton............Who the hell cares what the polls say. Get to the real meat of the issue and wait for the vote to take place. Then and ONLY THEN will we get the real truth. I’m sick of ‘polls”.
Among all adults, currently even those not registered...? You mean like illegals?
The media is pimping Hillary over Trump in anticipation of the ONSLAUGHT of illegal alien voters for Hillary.
I guess you are so much smarter than us 20 million people who think Trump will be President.
Bet on the skunk in any p*ssing contest.
Vote tallys so far in all primaries:
Democrats- 8+ million votes
Republicans- 12+ million votes.
If Republicans will stick together and vote for WHOEVER our candidate is, we will swamp them. So, don’t stay home because your favorite candidate wasn’t the nominee.
Have you ever noticed that people (myself included) treat polls like we treat studies?
If a study says coffee is good for you, and you like coffee, you say, “Yeah, nice to know!”
If a study says coffee is bad for you and you like coffee, you say, “Oh, that’s BS.”
The ONLY time this forecast, has been incorrect when applied, was ONCE, which was in 1960.
This is a PROFOUND PREDICTION
Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner
The Statesman | February 23, 2016 | Christopher Cameron
Professor Helmut Norpoth's forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate's performance in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth's formula.
"The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president," Norpoth said, "if he's a nominee of the [Republican] party."
Norpoth's primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.
Complete story source:
Well, if other candidates can’t stop Trump, might as well start trying to use rigged polls.
Nothing to lose.
I can see the way that the media treats Trump, that tells me everything about this “poll” I still say a Trump/Cruz ticket would be UNSTOPPABLE
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