Reuters Poll: Trump 40.2%, Cruz 23.2%, Rubio 14.5%, Kasich 11.3%

Reuters Polling ^ | 3/9/16 | Reuters

[Eccl 10:2]

Poll Reading: Republican support for Trump settles around 40%

[Georgia Girl 2]

Yeh Trump gained delegates last night. That’s a real bummer. LOL!

[grania]

Cruz is OVER because of the Neil Bush appointment to his campaign staff. There is no longer any way he can pretend to be independent of outside influences.

[Uncle Miltie]

That looks about right, and has been pretty consistent.

So, even if Rubio and Kasich left, with their 36.6% up for grabs, it would have to break no more than 10% for Trump and no less than 26.6% for Cruz. Plus, Trump already has many wins in the bag, so Cruz would have to do even better.

Indeed, for Cruz to credibly claim to win the vote, he’d need to get at least 30% of the 36% left on the table. And that would have to happen BEFORE Ohio and Florida. That’s not going to happen.

So suppose Kasich and Rubio leave AFTER losing their states. Cruz would have to win essentially 100% of their potential voters for the rest of the cycle. And, Rubio and Kasich would have to ask their delegates to vote Cruz.

This is looking extremely unlikely.

Trump could still totally blow himself up. But that looks highly unlikely since his followers support him through any number of behaviors that would permanently destroy any other candidate.

So, my analysis says it looks like we have our nominee. I don’t see a credible path for Cruz.

I do think Cruz should fight it out through to the end and lose by the 10% - 20%. It is valiant and good to fight the good fight all the way through to a known (political) death. This cycle. Cruz is so young. We’re going to be seeing him for many cycles to come.

[moehoward]

“FWIW, fivethirtyeight.com”

Yeah I have them bookmarked as well as reuters. 538 total count is off it takes them awhile to update, but I assume the percentages will remain unchanged. Trump maintaining his over 100% and Cruz lagging at 70%.

Bottom line, we are entering areas where Cruz just isn’t going to make up the deficit, and all objective Cruz supporters acknowledge it. So the question is. If he isn’t going to get the delegates required, and he will not benefit from convention high-jinks, what is it he wants?

[TexasCajun]

I’m hoping the deal with Cruz will be US Attorney General.

[djstex]

WooHOO, GO Trump GO! Thanks for the ping. Great wins last night for TRUMP!

[djstex]

Go Trump!

[ripnbang]

Yes, but still 100 +/- ahead of Cruz and the southern firewall strategy failed Cruz...where does he go from here? There are only so many Idaho’s out there.

[Teacher317]

Good point, but Trump is in the lead, and was expected by most here to have the nomination by now. Cruz was only supposed to take TX, and Marco MN... the rest to The Donald. Instead, Cruz has 7 so far
(including three primary states now), and it is a real race (basically 23-18 closing in on halftime).

[GOPJ]

Trump’s winning... all of the exceptions... the reason’s ‘this will help’ the others - never comes true.

[moehoward]

I’d rather see him there than Christie.

[TexasCajun]

Yet Trump is endorsed by Big Bank outsiders and it's A-OK.

Neil Bush, big nothing burger.

[Teacher317]

Keep in mind, Trump rarely gets his polling numbers:

Iowa was a 4.7 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 3.3 (8 pt drop at the actual vote)
Jan 26-31 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, Emerson), Feb 1 vote...

SC was a 17.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 9.9 (7.2 pt drop)
Feb 16-19 polls (FOX, SC House, Emerson), Feb 20 vote...

OKL was a 11.4 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 6.1 (17.5 pt drop)
Feb 28 Monmouth and SoonerNews9 poll, Mar 1 vote

VA was a 14.5 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.8 (11.7 pt drop)
Feb 26 CBS poll, Feb 24 Monmouth poll, Mar 1 vote (Roanoke had him up by 23 pts on Feb 24, I'm not cherry-picking here)

TN was a 18.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 14.2 (3.8 pt drop)
Feb 23 poll Mar 1 vote

VT was a 15.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.3 (12.7 pt drop)
Feb 17 VPR poll Mar 1 vote

Alaska was a 4.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 2.9 (7 pt drop)
Alaska Dispatch poll, Mar 1 vote

Texas was a 9.0 point win for Cruz just days before the vote... and Cruz won by 17.1 (8.1 pt drop)
Feb 26-28 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, Fox26), Mar 1 vote...
(Emerson and ARG had Trump within 3 and 1 point respectively on Feb 28)

KS was a 6.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 24.9 (31.0 pt drop)
Mar 3 poll, Mar 5 vote

ID was a 11.2 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 17.3 (28.5 pt drop)
IdahoWeekly Mar 6 poll, Mar 8 vote

MS was a 24 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 17.3 (6.7 pt drop)
Feb 29 poll, Mar 8 vote

An average last-moment drop of 12.9 points in these 11 states. When it comes time to actually vote, Trump's support crumbles by double digits.

Caucus states and primaries, before and after candidates drop out, liberal and conservative states, all with one common theme... Trump isn't pulling as many actual votes as poll votes and impressive rallies... and most polls have him behind Hillary head-to-head (most recently: Trump down 8 to Hillary, 52-44, Cruz up 1, 49-48 - March 1 CNN poll), or up only 1... and if he drops 6-12 pts at voting time, as he seems to be doing in half of the states so far, Trump is in deep trouble.

(I expect the usual Trump folks here to dismiss all of this with a single useless dismissal, of course... my favorite so far has been "you have too much time on your hands", as if that changes a single fact posted.)

Polls may not be accurate (another common Trump supporter dismissal), but the trend is clear... Trump underperforms the polling, and by significant numbers. (Yes, he has beaten a few polls, but only once by more than the margin of error.)

[grania]

Those who are supporting Trump are not raising money for him. Neil Bush, bad news appointment by Cruz.

[dangus]

Filter to “Likely Republican Primary Voters” (Why wouldn’t you?) and the poll moves to 39 Trump, 30 Cruz, 15 Rubio, 11 Kasich

[Teacher317]

My guess since JAN is that Tump has a ceiling of about 49 pct... he hasn’t topped it (except in liberal MASS, 49.3), and I believe that a simple majority in 8 states is also required to get the GOP nod now. Nobody has even ONE yet, and we’re almost half done.

[Kenny]

Everyone portrays Cruz as the anti-Trump but that’s not true. I think if Cruz were out of the race that a majority of his voters would go to Trump.

But Cruz will use the anti-Trump label to justify going to a brokered convention.

[napscoordinator]

That just proves that the polling companies are dumb not trump. Perhaps ban the polls. I think it is pathetic they think Cruz should win over winning 7 states. Bernie has 8 states and I don’t hear then saying Bernie has a chance. This is all theater for the media to continue to make money off trump. This election is trump!

[faucetman]

YES, my tag line

[Teacher317]

Next up is the winner take all states. Trump should do very well in most of those states.

They start next week, and Trump still polls ahead in basically all states (as he has from the beginning), which is why everyone else's efforts have suddenly ramped up. I don't trust Trump nearly as much as most here, but he is still the likely winner, and has been since NOV. The real story is that Cruz has kept it this close for this long and won 7 states (4 caucus, 3 primary). NOBODY called that outcome to this point.