Posted on 03/09/2016 4:27:14 AM PST by jimbo123
A new poll released Wednesday, March 9, 2016 shows Donald Trump leading two Republican presidential opponents in each of their respective home states.
The new CNN/ORC poll shows Trump ahead of Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida and Gov. John Kasich in Ohio.
In Ohio, Trump is at 41% to Kasich’s 35% and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in a distant third.
In Florida, Trump holds 40% to Rubio’s 24% with Cruz 19% and Kasich 5%.
(Excerpt) Read more at kwqc.com ...
This morning on Fox, Scott Rasmussen (the pollster) was talking about how Trump still needed 60% of the future delegates to clinch the nomination. He was saying it in context of how difficult it will be, that it’s unlikely. This was complete spin. If Trump wins FL and OH, Kasich and Rubio will both drop out. Rubio might not make it there at all.
Once those two drop out, the remaining 25ish future contests will ONLY be between Trump and Cruz. Trump’s percentage of the overall delegate count will skyrocket because almost all of these states are winner take all and favor Trump. So instead of getting 30-40% of the delegates, in states like CA, NY he’ll get 100%. By the end, (again presuming Trump wins FL and OH) he will probably have close to 1500 delegates in total.
Yes and that same poll showed Hillary beating Bernie Sanders..things that make you go hmmmmm. Love the hyperbole by the delusional here "All the polls still agree—with Trump you get Hillary.". Remember kids no need to buttress your hyperbole with facts just use absolutes like "All" and it adds weight to your supposed argument.
No, but he'd essentially block any other candidate's path to the nomination. Rubio and Kasich would have no chance. Cruz would need something major to happen in order to get there. Trump would up by about 250 EVs, not including the other states like IL, MO and NC where the Donald would likely fare very well.
You'd likely have a two-man race going to Utah and Arizona ahead of the April break.
Iowa was a 4.7 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 3.3 (8 pt drop at the actual vote)
Jan 26-31 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, Emerson), Feb 1 vote...
SC was a 17.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 9.9 (7.2 pt drop)
Feb 16-19 polls (FOX, SC House, Emerson), Feb 20 vote...
OKL was a 11.4 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 6.1 (17.5 pt drop)
Feb 28 Monmouth and SoonerNews9 poll, Mar 1 vote
VA was a 14.5 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.8 (11.7 pt drop)
Feb 26 CBS poll, Feb 24 Monmouth poll, Mar 1 vote (Roanoke had him up 23 on Feb 24)
TN was a 18.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 14.2 (3.8 pt drop)
Feb 23 poll Mar 1 vote
VT was a 15.0 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by 2.3 (12.7 pt drop)
Feb 17 VPR poll Mar 1 vote
Alaska was a 4.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 2.9 (7 pt drop)
Alaska Dispatch poll, Mar 1 vote
Texas was a 9.0 point win for Cruz just days before the vote... and Cruz won by 17.1 (8.1 pt drop)
Feb 26-28 polls (CBS, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, Fox26), Mar 1 vote...
(Emerson and ARG had Trump within 3 and 1 point respectively on Feb 28)
KS was a 6.1 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 24.9 (31.0 pt drop)
Mar 3 poll, Mar 5 vote
ID was a 11.2 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he lost by 17.3 (28.5 pt drop)
IdahoWeekly Mar 6 poll, Mar 8 vote
MS was a 24 point win for Trump just days before the vote... and he won by "only" 17.3 (6.7 pt drop)
Feb 29 poll, Mar 8 vote
An average last-moment drop of 12.9 points in these 11 states, half of those voting so far. When it comes time to actually vote, Trump's support crumbles by double digits.
Caucus states and primaries, before and after candidates drop out, liberal and conservative states, before the lousy GOPe Stop Trump campaign and after, all with one common theme... Trump isn't pulling as many actual votes as poll votes and impressive rallies... and most polls have him behind Hillary head-to-head (most recently: Trump down 8 to Hillary, 52-44, Cruz up 1, 49-48 - March 1 CNN poll), or up only 1... and if he drops 6-12 pts at voting time, as he seems to be doing in half of the states so far, Trump is in deep trouble.
(I expect the usual Trump folks here to dismiss all of this with a single useless dismissal, of course... my favorite so far has been "you have too much time on our hands", as if that changes a single fact posted.)
Polls may not be accurate (another common Trump supporter dismissal), but the trend is clear... Trump underperforms the polling, and by significant numbers. (Yes, he has beaten a few polls, but only once by more than the margin of error.)
This disappointed me, but I’m not surprised. Cruz has been responding to Kasich’s “excitement” over the prospect of a brokered convention, but in a very politician-like spin is saying he never had a problem with a “contested” convention. Par for the course.
Mr. One delegate Rubio is hurting Rubio's chances in Florida.
The thing is, there’s no enthusiasm on the dem side and there’s lots of enthusiasm on the republican side. Trump can win battleground states and likely some blue states because the dems are going to stay home and/or cross over to Trump. They already have. So those polls mean nothing.
“All the polls still agree—with Trump you get Hillary”
Ah you haven’t heard! The are no longer electing POTUS by popular vote. They switched to that new-fangled “electoral college!”
Cruz has been the establishment guy all along, and with NEIL BUSH joining his finance team yesterday it is obvious and clear to all who are paying attention.
The wise move, it seems, would be for Trump to offer Cruz the Vice Presidency, for Cruz to accept, and close the deal on the first ballot.
Besides, Cruz would be an excellent choice for Vice President.
Cruz ran as the outsider and he placed his frewall in the sout.
that was destroyed and now he is running to the establishment, or to be fair they are running to each other.
Bush on the team
Romney saying vote for Cruz
Graham saying he will work with Cruz
and now after Cruz saying he thought a contested convention was a bad thing two weeks ago is now saying he welcomes a contested convention.
Now it shows how desperate Cruz is by wanting others to drop out
WTH
why can’t Cruz voters understand this?
I switched my vote two weeks ago form Cruz because I saw how he really was, and yet some on here would rather stick with him no matter what he says and does , or who he gets into bed with i.e. the establishment
‘So Cruz voters are you happy now he is staying in knowing he cannot get enough delegates and is doing the establishments bidding?’
Worse than that - Cruz knows if he is the nominee, hillary and her RATS will remove his name from the state ballots in the general election (he is not constitutionally eligible!), yet he insists in competing to make it hard for other eligible candidates to get nominated, thus leading to the ‘convention’ where they will shove Bush or Romney down our throats!
That is NOT the behavior of a conservative!
Not exactly true. Carter was polling ahead 62-33 in DEC '79. The hostage crisis began on NOV 4, and the lead was seen as people rallying to the flag in response. By March '80, it was clear that he wasn't getting our people back, so it was 40-34 Carter on March 10, and the race was on. (Carter ended with the same 41 pct in NOV.)
So the only conservative in the race should drop out, "for the conservative cause". Yeah, that make a ton of sense. SMH
So the only conservative in the race should drop out, “for the conservative cause”. Yeah, that make a ton of sense. SMH
LOL. The “only conservative” in the race is picking up amnesty pimp support now. Seems like the “NY Liberal” would be a natural fit for the establishment but apparently not. They’re all in for bought and paid for career politician Ted Cruz. It’s now an old school GOPe divide and conquer conservatives operation. Sad to see so many good conservatives duped by it.
The big problem with a Trump/Cruz ticket is -
Cruz is not a article 2 natural born citizen and is constitutionally ineligible to be the president or VP. Hillary and her RATS and her media WILL challenge the ticket and we will lose!
I wish Cruz is constitutionally eligible so we can have the Trump/Cruz winning ticket, but we have to face reality.
Perhaps the 2 can make a deal for Trump to be the nominee and Cruz can be in his cabinet, or be the Attorney General...
Every candidate in history wanted the others to drop out. You guys are hilarious.
And as I've been saying since DEC, Cruz's best chance is a 2-man race vs Trump. Nothing has changed. Trump leads, he is polling ahead in most states, and Cruz still needs a 2-man race (and soon) for a shot at the win and avoiding the GOPe Convention (which I've been yelling about since NOV).
This is why Cruz at this point isn’t even a factor anymore. and now that he’s signed on one of those oh so savvy bushes and is for a contested convention how can any of you Cruz folks consider voting for him!
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