We should have a much clearer picture at that time.
FYI...latest numbers.
Thank you.
Thanks for doing this Jeff
Thank you for the excellent, numeric, and apparently unbiased analysis of the state of the race.
You’re batting 990! Fantastic!
“Marco Rubio won his second contest by a huge majority in Puerto Rico. “
But compare:
“daveweigel ;@daveweigel · 2h2 hours ago
Final Puerto Rico vote: Rubio 71%. Compare to Romney 85% (2012), McCain 90% (2008), Bush 94% (2000).”
You make the point IMO that Ohio is more important than Fla to Cruz. Stop Kasich: Rubio is already toast.
What’s your take on Idaho?
Here’s my take on all of the talk of a brokered convention.
It may be possible, but I do not trust for any instant someone like Lindsey Graham or other GOPe individual pushing for it. Trying to make any promises regarding it.
Neither should Cruz or Trump.
The GOPe will try and use Cruz to get to a brokered convention and try and deny the nomination to Cruz at that point if they get there.
I believe it is patently obvious that the GOP voters are saying VERY LOUDLY that the do not want any GOPe candidate on the ticket.
IMHO, one of two things is going to happen.,
1. either Trump is going to win the nomination out right...with no brokering needed.
2. Trump and Cruz will fight for the nomination up to the convention with Trump having a lead, but being just short, and Cruz have a very sizable number of candidates.
If number 1 is the option, the trump should choose a non-establishment running mate and deny the establishment any position on the ticket.
If number 2 is what happens, then Trump and Cruz will have the delegates to hands down win this thing and that is what they should do. Combine...unite...and have a completely non-establishment ticket of Trump/Cruz with something like 80% of the delegates.
bkmk
Thank you for the clear & thorough analysis.
As opposed to just shy of 7 million for the Dems total turnout.........................interesting............................
good stuff! I appreciate the effort you put in to this. Thanks!
AlGore.........................................
Predict a landslide win when Trump names Sanders as his VP ......:o)
< / SARCASM>
Cruz lost Texas by 500,000 or 600,000 votes. Yet he is still up overall by 500,000 votes.
Now, you might be tempted to say, "Shut up, Trumpster."
But it is important for this reason: In the fall, voting will not be limited to committed voters who are involved, and willing to spend an hour or more sitting at a caucus. This means that more "everyday" votes will come into play: and these will be less informed. (That cuts every which way: there will be those who listen to attack ads against Trump as KKK Nazi, as well as those who say "Frick Yeah! Build the Wall !" ; and those who say "Finally, with Cruz we have a committed Christian!" as well as those who say, "Yeah, that Bible Thumper *ought* to be committed, and the sooner the better." Also, the voting will not be limited to Republicans: hence the possibility of crossover votes from the Dems will matter.
What this means is, the larger the number of absolute votes, from the larger number of states, the better. The Dems start out with the deck stacked in their favor in the electoral college: if Trump can put just 1 or 2 reliable Dem states into serious play, he changes the entire dynamic of the race: and I do not yet see evidence that Cruz plays well outside of traditional GOP states -- not when there's a Democrat in the mix.
Thanks for taking time to sift through this, make it pretty, and post all of it!
Thank you so much!