Why Louisiana tells us the most about Trump

Washington Examiner ^ | March 6, 2016 | W. James Antle III

[Zakeet]

Louisiana ... was a primary rather than a caucus. Trump won the state on strength of early voters. He lost among people who showed up on election day. The RealClearPolitics polling average showed him leading by 15.6 percentage points, but he only carried Louisiana by 3.6 points.

Trump finished on the low end of his March polling, with a shade more than 41 percent of the vote, while Cruz overperformed even the high end at better than 37 percent.

If there was any sign that an anti-Trump vote is coming together, we saw it in Louisiana.

[HarleyLady27]

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/06/this-is-a-movement/

[dynoman]

"Political consultant Jeff Roe, who is based in Kansas City, is Ted Cruz's campaign manager — and the architect of the Texas senator's surprising first-place finish.

Roe is hardly a household name even amongst the political chattering class. (He has less than 6,000 Twitter followers.) Locally, he's most famous for commissioning the mean-spirited ad that upset State Auditor Tom Schweich and may have factored into his suicide, at least according to former U.S. Senator John Danforth, who blasted "politics that has gone so hideously wrong" in his funeral oration. Roe has been labeled "the Karl Rove of Missouri" — and the people calling him that don't consider it a compliment.

But as last night's results proved, he knows what he's doing. Cruz didn't just hold off all the other candidates vying for Iowa's large block of conservative voters. He did it even while beating Donald Trump. It was a wild, complicated race, and you have to respect the guy who figured out how to propel any candidate, much less one who's thoroughly loathed by everyone he meets, to victory.

In an interview with Chris Wallace a few weeks ago, Roe discussed a few secrets to his success — namely, a simple message and strong branding. Roe comes across as intensely analytical. He doesn't just know how long the average voter looks at a mailer (17 seconds); he knows how long he wants you to look at one touting Cruz (45 seconds). "When we communicate with the voter, we want it to be simple, clear and reinforce our candidate's brand," he says. For Cruz, that was "strong Christian conservative leader."

A recent New York Times Magazine piece delved more deeply into how Roe & Co. made those words resonate for Cruz, who'd hitherto been identified mostly as a conservative, not necessarily a Christian. Writes Robert Draper,

"One morning early in January, in the lobby of a public library in Onawa, Iowa, I listened to Cruz’s campaign manager, Jeff Roe, as he explained a central challenge of his previous few months. ‘‘Prior to March 23,’’ Roe said, ‘‘if you were to word-cloud ‘Ted Cruz,’ which we do every day — take all the Google mentions and Internet searches, dump them into a file and form a cloud — you can’t find ‘evangelical.’ ’’ In other words, voters were largely unaware of the Tea Party firebrand’s religious faith. To convince evangelicals that Ted Cruz was the ‘‘righteous’’ candidate, Roe told me, his team needed to sell him as such, from the very beginning: ‘‘Regardless of what you’ve got in the bank, you’d better determine the narrative of the campaign, and show that’s who we are, every day."

Last night's results suggest that effort worked beautifully.

Yes, Iowa is unusually dominated by evangelicals, and yes, if Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are any indication, Cruz faces an uphill battle to get the Republican nomination, much less win a single state. But we have to hand it to Roe. Never before has a candidate that so many Americans find this intensely annoying managed to make it this far."

http://www.riverfronttimes.com/newsblog/2016/02/02/missouris-own-jeff-roe-was-the-wind-beneath-ted-cruzs-iowa-wings

[GBA]

If Cruz actually got the nomination. I will kick back and no longer care about the 2016 election,

When "they" ran an all naturalized citizen ticket primary and the "constitutional conservatives" all came out for Cruz, I had pretty much resigned myself to doing exactly that, too.

And then...from out of nowhere Trump shows up and started shaking things up.

Wow! Didn't see that coming.

[Kenton]

The telling thing is that they arent running as "pro" anything. Just anti-TRump. Get rid of Trump, and they fall apart within 24 hours.

Could be, time will tell. I have a feeling that there are lots of "pro" things they have to say, but hard-core Trumpsters are more interested in dominating the conversation than listening.

Just wonder if Cruz is so dumb as to think that isnt what will happen.

Yeah. "Cruz is so dumb". That's what I was talking about. Some Trumpsters have apparently read up and studied the writings of Saul Alinsky, and are somewhat adept at his tactic of "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it." On one hand, it's entertaining to see our side using this tactic, but I wish they'd saved it for the Democrats.

By the way, Cruz is the only conservative in the race, and he's anything but dumb.

Trump's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. He does shout the loudest, but his record just doesn't show him to be the champion that Conservatives want.

When you stop shouting long enough to listen (or when you stop listening to the shouters) it's apparent that this race is not as over as the Trumpsters would have you believe.

By the way, I'm not advocating anybody, I'm going to vote for the Republican candidate, period. That may well be Trump, and I'm fine with that. I started out being pro-Trump, but lately I've taken off the rose colored glasses.

I know that somebody who tells everybody how great America will be after he's elected is very appealing after the last seven and a half years wandering in the political wilderness.

I'm a little concerned that when people try to ask for specifics, he doesn't have any, he just repeats what he said about how great everything will be.

I'll leave such "blind faith" to other people, and I'll see you in Cleveland.

[VanDeKoik]

I’m sorry but I’ve read nothing in there other than your need to say “Trumpster” a bunch of times, assume that I’m shouting, and not listening for some reason...

It has been exceedingly clear that the GOPe has been running since October what is nothing more than a “anti-Trump” effort. Not Pro Bush, Pro Carly, Pro Rubio or anyone else.

Both the Gope and Cruz see no other option than to team up to take out Trump, where Cruz will be disposed of once he has outlived his usefulness. That, or Cruz will be blackmailed into being full GOPe as a nominee.

Cruz has no real magic or pull beyond what his amen chorus pretends. Once the GOPe has the brokered convention they have openly said they wanted, they will no longer need him. That’s just the sad truth.

I dont care how “conservative” he is. The question still stands if he is too stupid to see what is coming.

[DoughtyOne]

[IFly4Him]

Something changed in the last 7-10 days:

1/ Romney

2/ Thr's debate

3/ Super Tuesday expectations

4/ Fewer candidates

My hunch it's a combination of 3 & 4.

[Kenton]

I dont care how “conservative” he is.

Yup, true dat... cool how easily I got you to admit that in front everybody, huh?

See, here at FreeRepublic a lot of us do care about that, and calling Cruz stupid is arguing at a six grade level. Your argument isn't very convincing to people who have progressed beyond the sixth grade.

Vote for whoever you want to. You've obviously drunk more than your share of the cool-aid, so I'm not going to waste any more time with you.

I've already said I'll wind up voting for Trump if he is nominated, but your apoplectic rantings won't have any affect on that either way. Try switching to decaf.

[VanDeKoik]

Seriously?!?!?!

Now here is the complete quote that you are too darn dishonest to post:

“I dont care how “conservative” he is. The question still stands if he is too stupid to see what is coming.”

What am I responding to?

“...By the way, Cruz is the only conservative in the race, and he’s anything but dumb.”

Which HAS JACK CRAP to do with anything. What do you think, that if you are conservative you are mistake-free? That no one can pull one over on you?

It is a political philosophy, not a darn superpower.

I will repeat:

I DO NOT CARE HOW CONSERVATIVE HE IS. IF HE DOES NOT SEE OR CARE ABOUT WHAT THE GOPE HAS IN STORE HE WILL GET STOMPED.

Are you able to follow it now?

[DoughtyOne]

[Kenton]

"Now here is the complete quote that you are too darn dishonest to post:"

“I dont care how “conservative” he is. The question still stands if he is too stupid to see what is coming.”

It wasn't at all dishonest, I didn't feel like reposting your entire response. Anybody who's following our little discussion here can go back and read your original post if they have any interest in doing so. I responded to the part I found interesting, the part about your disdain for conservatism.

“...By the way, Cruz is the only conservative in the race, and he’s anything but dumb.”

Which HAS JACK CRAP to do with anything. What do you think, that if you are conservative you are mistake-free? That no one can pull one over on you?

No, but before you blow an O-ring, let's ratchet this down a bit. No, I don't think conservatives are mistake free or that no one can pull one over on them, but I do think conservatism matters when we do something as important as elect a president. It's one of the founding cornerstones of this website, as a matter of fact.

The question still stands if he is too stupid to see what is coming.”

I'm curious. Where do you get off calling him stupid? Like I said before you sound like a sixth grader when you do that. What, is there anything substantive to your claim, or is name calling all ya got?

You seem to be filled with blind, unquestioning faith in The Donald. My financial adviser knows him because he belongs to Donald's country club in North Carolina. (Yeah, Donald OWNS the country club). He speaks very highly of him, and I have no reason to doubt him on that. I appreciate the input of somebody who has first hand experience with the guy, and he genuinely respects Donald and his family (or at least Eric, but I assume his whole family). Like I say, I'd vote for him, but I just have so many unanswered questions about him. So let me ask you something.

How long have you been a Trump fanboy? Does it go back any further than when he announced he was running? Do you really know much about the guy, besides the rhetoric at the Trump rallies? Do you have any good solid reasons not to wonder if he's putting something over on YOU? It doesn't sound like you're entertaining questions like that at all.

OK, moving on...

I DO NOT CARE HOW CONSERVATIVE HE IS. IF HE DOES NOT SEE OR CARE ABOUT WHAT THE GOPE HAS IN STORE HE WILL GET STOMPED.

There ya go, shouting again. The louder you shout, the less people listen.

Are you able to follow it now?

Believe me pal, I'm able to follow anything you got.

[musicman]

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[lodi90]

My prediction should Cruz get the nomination is that his eligibility will either be challenged by the GOP-E or more likely, the Democrats will challenge it after the convention. Either way, Cruz will end up not being the nominee and a Romney will be called on to save the day.

What could have been a revolution with Trump and Co. will become just another failure of the people and continued slide into socialism. Makes me sad.

---

Cruz won’t get the nom. He’ll never get 1,200 delegates. IF they steal the nom from Trump it will be probably be a Ryan/Cruz “unity” ticket. Cruz will be just fine with that. He already said he prefers Amnesty Rubio to Trump. Cruz won’t be standing with us at the convention. That much is certain.

[WHBates]

No doubt, Hellry would not only sue him (NBC) if Cruz is nominee but would eat him alive on debates. A polite Hahvud debater is NOT what is needed to defeat the witch

Why would anyone waste their time suing Cruz, you sound like a 12 year old. Suing him would not provide any relief to her or Trump, he isn't the one that puts his name on the ballot, that occurs on the state level. Ultimately Congress will decide the question, as the framers intended.