Posted on 02/21/2016 12:18:59 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
LAS VEGAS - It's going to be a long ride.
Rather than anointing a presumptive nominee, the early voting states have narrowed the Republican primary to a three-man race heading into Tuesday's Nevada Caucuses and the 12-state delegate bonanza on March 1.
Donald Trump leads nationally and in most state polls, but both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are armed with the rationales and the resources to stay in the race through at least March, if not right up to the Republican National Convention in July.
Despite Trump's polling lead, there are significant obstacles to his running away with the nomination in the coming weeks. With Rubio buoyed by momentum, Nevada's organizing-heavy caucuses set for Tuesday, and the first half of March weighted toward states where Cruz is poised to finish strongly, there is little space for Trump to translate that lead into a certain nomination in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Rubio's strength makes him the likely standard-bearer of center-right Republicans and their deep-pocketed backers and can only increase the pressure for Jeb Bush to bow out of the race - freeing resources for the Florida senator and cleaning up a cluttered field before the real action begins.
"Until it clears out, it's an advantage for Trump," said one person close to the New York billionaire.
The results so far have only been a prelude. Including South Carolina, only 4 percent of delegates have been awarded up to this point, and Trump has won only a plurality. Heading into Saturday, Trump had won 17 of the 53 delegates awarded in Iowa and New Hampshire, less than a third. Cruz had won 11 and Rubio 10.
On paper, the next three weeks of contests favor Cruz, a feature of the schedule that will prevent Rubio from totally capitalizing on any momentum he gains coming out of South Carolina.
Tuesday's caucuses in Nevada will be only a blip - bringing the delegates awarded to 5 percent of the total - but one that could deprive Trump of momentum if he is out-organized here as he was in the first caucus state, Iowa.
"Nevada is basically a wash. Nobody will care about it unless Trump doesn't win," said a Trump campaign insider.
On March 1, 12 states with a combined total of 588 delegates - nearly a third of the total - will get their turn. Delegate totals on that day are titled heavily towards the six Southern states, where Cruz and the outside groups supporting him are better organized than their rivals. That includes March 1's biggest prize, Cruz's home state of Texas, which awards 152 delegates. Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana, three Cruz-friendly states with a combined 132 delegates to award, will vote four days later on March 5.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15.
Despite favorable conditions in South Carolina - his campaign's director there is a former majority leader of the state's House of Representatives and for much of the race he enjoyed 20-point polling leads there - Trump did not achieve the blowout victory that he did in New Hampshire.
Trump also under-performed in Iowa, the only caucus state to have voted so far.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15, by which point more than 40 percent of delegates will have already been awarded. Both Ohio, with its 63 delegates and Florida with its 99 will vote that day - and the prospect of John Kasich hanging in long enough to capture his home state will only further muddle the delegate math.
Deeper into the map, major prizes like 95-delegate New York, which votes on April 19, and 172-delegate California, which votes on the last day of primary contests on June 7, will award delegates by congressional district.
Trump the new Studebaker.
Rubio is NOT a conservative.
GO TRUMP!
Roger that. He and his dad talk a big game about what the ole man claims he did in Cuba. The problem is the old man never saw Castro or fought with him, and; most of his stories are BS according to others from the timeframe.
It’s the only way I won’t get sued. It was a joke.
Actually wasn’t the Pope an activist Argentine communist?
Maybe a CINO.
oh lol
Your math is off by a factor of 100. Trump has 4.9 % of the delegates required, not 0.049%
If anyone beats trump, yes - it will be trump. Agreed. (We will see -—)
Agree.
I’m for Ted Cruz ...but it’s looking more and more like Trump will persevere!!If he is the candidate I will vote for him....but I believe he is a flim flam man!!!
Yeah just like Cruz was trying to help voters in Iowa?
Yap, just like Cruz was photo-shopping Rubio in SC Ads?
Cruz is a proven liar now in two incidents.
Reputation is like virginity. Once broken, very difficult to repair.
Cheap Foreign Workers on H1-B visa
Pushing import of Syrian Refugees:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7-nLXGoSjpg
big Video's do not lie. Believe your lying eyes!
Time magazine article: Time magazine had one of many reports clarifying his immigration posturing:
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz declined to close the door to a potential pathway to legal status for the 11 million people in the U.S. illegally Friday, saying he wouldn"t elaborate on his plans for them until after the border is secure.
Seeking to carve out a space between real estate mogul Donald Trump, who is calling for the forcible deportation of those in the U.S. illegally, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who co-authored the Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration reform bill that included a pathway to citizenship, Cruz would not explicitly rule out a pathway to legal status for the undocumented.
That, plus his previous support for a huge increase in H1B visas, stymied him as he tried to launch an attack on Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who was a co-author and major mover on the Gang of 8 immigration bill that passed the Senate overwhelmingly. On one level, Rubio" team is simply pointing out that if anti-immigration types want the real deal, Cruz is not the one. Rubio, of course, benefits if Cruz cannot capture the anti-immigration segment of the electorate to whom Donald Trump panders. On another level, however, what is at stake is a larger argument about Cruz's character. Essentially. the argument goes: He is not a hard-liner; he's an opportunist whose positions are no different, and in some cases worse, than those of other Republicans.
On immigration, for example, the entire anti-"amnesty" crusade is a canard unless, like Trump, you want to round people up and kick them out. Otherwise, you are exactly where other candidates are fix the border, reform legal immigration and then regularize the 11 million here. Cruz spends his time excoriating other Republicans for squishiness, but when you get down to it, he's exactly where they are†unwilling to undertake a massive, expensive, intrusive deportation program. In other words, he's not an anti-immigration extremist; he's just posturing as one.
Not true.
It would be nice to kick them out, but there would be a lot of self-deportation if you deny them employment and welfare.
That was Cruz's answer to a debate question as to what to with the illegals already here (beef up E-Verify and deny welfare).
Cruz will post anything so he is no one to get up tight for.
You should know me by now, I was trying to do my imitation of a Cruz apologist.
We’re on the same page - Trump all the way!
;-) but of course. ThAnk you.
True. What is even more amazing is so many Cruz fans will now tell us this and that, how great Cruz is etc. It just never changes. Sadly, it now appears had Trump had not mentioned the wall, no one would. Let’s hope I am wrong. We have heard how it is the GOP e who uses Super PAC’s and those with an agenda to destroy their opponent. The couple whose son is in NE politics works for Cruz and Rubio.
...you’re telling me that Trump ran specifically because he has a hate-on for Cruz and wanted to screw him?
...
For all that tinfoil you’re wearing, I hope that you’re buying it in bulk.
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