Posted on 02/20/2016 8:55:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Today, South Carolina Republicans cast votes in the 2016 presidential primary. As expected, two things happened. First, Donald Trump wiped the floor with the competition. Second, pundits have overreacted in declaring that his second win clears him a path to the nomination. The latter is not only premature, but rabidly underestimates how the party primary system works. But in due fairness, let's address both points.
Trump continues to be underestimated
This is not a post to bash Donald Trump. In fact, as a student of elections, Trump wildly impresses me. He entered a crowded race in which Republicans had not just a number of choices, but a diverse set of good choices. The GOP had young and old, white and nonwhite, male and female, domestic policy guys and foreign policy wonks, experienced politicians and newcomers. Ben and Jerry may have endorsed Bernie Sanders, but the GOP race quickly became the Baskin Robbins of politics.
Enter Donald Trump. He surely brought something different and new to the table. But along with his success as a businessman and tremendous wealth, he also had an easily critiqued history and absolutely no political experience. Combine that with the lack of polish and decorum expected of presidential contenders, and his candidacy seemed not only easily undermined, but doomed. Everyone underestimated Trump, assuming his brash, flippant, offensive, brutally honest, and clearly genuine rhetoric would force him out of the race quickly. Nothing was further from the truth.
As time went on, he just grew more popular. Comments that would normally force a candidate from the race--and political relevance generally--seemed to propel Trump further. And that success continues. After losing a controversial race to an even more controversial Ted Cruz in Iowa, Trump went on to win in New Hampshire and again tonight in South Carolina. That success is indisputable. It is a testament to a very different candidate, who does whatever he wants, in a year where predictions and expectations are thrown out the window. Actually, somehow Mr. Trump has built a wall to combat common wisdom and he's making the political intelligentsia pay for it.
Tonight's win in South Carolina is not only impressive in itself, but it is in a state that had clear currents and moments that favored other candidates. Jeb Bush should have won South Carolina because his father and brother were successful in the state and still remain very well liked. Marco Rubio should have won South Carolina because his story is a compelling one; his foreign policy chops connect well with a defense-oriented state, and Nikki Haley, the popular Republican governor, endorsed him. Ted Cruz should have won South Carolina because the Republican electorate is deeply conservative and disproportionately evangelical Christian. Donald Trump most certainly should not have won South Carolina. He's a wealthy New York businessman with New York values, multiple divorces, a slight relationship to religion, and a history of supporting liberal causes--traits that typically don't resonate with South Carolina Republicans. Yet, despite all of the things other candidates had going for them and the myriad reasons Trump shouldn't have won, the Palmetto State picked the Donald. His message focused on fear, anger, disgust, and a desire to "Make America Great Again" touched a nerve. It's quite odd. In some ways, "Make America Great Again" is the 2016 version of "Yes, We Can." People are responding to the message not necessarily because of its substance, but it makes them feel the way they want to feel. It inspires them as the kind of alternative they want to see. Earlier this week, I drew parallels between how Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump connect with very different supporters in very similar ways. But perhaps, instead, Donald Trump is the 2016 and Republican version of Barack Obama. Trump supporters hope he can change Obama's "Hope and Change."
There is no reason on paper, by demographics, or by outward appearance Donald Trump should be successful in South Carolina, but alas, he won the primary there and marches on to Nevada and then Super Tuesday with more wind at his back than any other candidate by far. His momentum is huge.
Why Donald Trump is overestimated
Every other Republican candidate--and probably both Democratic candidates--would love to be in Donald Trump's shoes. Dominant, in control of most news cycles, Teflon to scandal and his own gaffes, connecting with should-be-out-of-reach demographic groups with ease, and trouncing the competition. Despite that, the reports of Donald Trump's coronation as the next Republican nominee are quite premature. He may well end up the GOP nominee. Yet, there are several reasons why he may not.
The GOP race remains a crowded field. There are five other candidates of varying success and even if you discount Carson (you should) and Bush (you probably should), Cruz and Rubio are serious contenders. So long as that many candidates remain in the race, it becomes difficult for Trump to amass a majority of delegates heading into Cleveland. Cruz and Rubio may not be able to beat Trump in many of the states to come, but they can be enough of a nuisance to keep him from the type of "clinch" we have seen in previous years after a handful of primaries and caucuses. That moment usually comes early (or early-ish) when it becomes clear someone will march to the convention and the race effectively ends. This year is not one of those years.
Party rules make it hard for Trump to clinch. While some states are winner-take-all in their allocation of delegates. Many are not. Many allocate strictly proportionally or function as a winner-take-all if and only if a candidate receives a supermajority (between 66 percent and 85 percent depending on the state). Trump is "winning" by pulling 30-40 percent of states' votes, making those winner-take-all-thresholds far out of reach. It also makes securing the nomination formally (winning a majority of delegates) or informally (broad support being so obvious that further competition is seen as fruitless) that much more difficult.
Party leaders don't like Donald Trump and they're scared to death of his candidacy. The GOP brass see themselves--right or not--to be in a very strong position this year. Secretary Clinton's candidacy exists in the shadow of scandals and investigations and her primary competition is a self-described socialist. They think their chances to retake the White House are quite good, but only if they have the right candidate. They believe Donald Trump is not that candidate. The Republican primary contest has "uncommitted delegates" (Democrats call them "superdelegates") who are able to cast convention votes without input from voters. There are fewer of them than Democrats have, but in a close primary contest, they may make a difference. These unpledged delegates tend to be state party leaders.
If Republicans head to Cleveland with no candidate securing a majority of delegates (every political pundit's daydream), and a brokered convention comes to fruition, the uncommitted delegates may play an outsized role. So, too, may the party brass--the baron-like establishment that Trump and his supporters rail against. It would be a risky proposition to strip the man with the most delegates from being the nominee, but the party may see it as their only avenue to beating a Democrat in November and thus make it a reality. For the GOP leadership the calculus is easy: if we nominate Trump we absolutely lose; if we give the nomination to someone else, Trump's supporters will be angry, but we at least have a chance of winning. Economists' expected value calculations make that decision a no-brainier. The politician's calculations make it more difficult.
That said, if Republican leadership have any opportunity to usurp Trump's momentum and keep him from being the 2016 Republican Party nominee, they will do it. The crowded field, the primary rules, and the preferences of many in the party mean it's a real possibility. Trump and, in a similar way, Ted Cruz have built campaigns and candidacies based on running against and explicitly spitting in the face of the party brass. They work well with angry voters, but in a brokered convention it is a death knell. A brokered convention is great news for party leaders afraid of Trump, for more mainstream candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, and for the health of the Republican Party. But at the end of the day, the almost unbelievable state of the Republican primary could be salvaged on the floor of Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena. If it takes that long, the man or woman chosen in a smoke-filled room may bask in the glow of being the Republican nominee. But the real winner in that situation will be the person Democrats select as their nominee a week later in Philadelphia. In that way, the only thing worse for the Republican Party than Donald Trump would be an establishment-led overthrow of Donald Trump.
For those making absolutist predictions based on the South Carolina results, take a deep breath. This race is nowhere near over. We have no idea who the nominee will be. The only thing Trump's unbelievable win in South Carolina tells us is that the Republican primary will continue to be an unbelievable mess...maybe even a YUGE one.
conservative voters, even those that don’t like Trump will be outrage and refuse to vote or protest vehemently
If they can’t be moved to vote out of self preening petulance, then they have no cause to complain about the direction of the country, do they...
I’d like to go to my grave knowing I didnt vote for a liberal .
No, you just failed to cancel a vote for a communist, so...
The Party's Rule 40 states:
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nominationIf Trump wins 8 or more "winner take all" states, and no other candidate has passed the 8-state threshold, then Trump may show up at the convention as the ONLY candidate who is allowed to be voted on in the first round.
His message focused on fear, anger, disgust, and a desire to “Make America Great Again”
NOPE, John Hudack (??) still does not get it!
“Fear”, hah, Trump and his supporters are fearless.
“anger, disgust”, you betcha, directed at the professional politicians who promise one thing, then do the exact opposite to cling to their office and perks.
“desire” to make Americia Great Again, that which Trump has promised is not a heavy lift. Trump pledges to follow a law and build the wall, junk 0bama care, and look after the best interests of US Citizens
“If he’s the nominee, not voting for him means supporting Hillary as the next judge-picker”
Effectively, yes. And isn’t that EXACTLY what happened to Romney? Millions of Republicans just stayed home. I don’t think it will be any different with Trump. His negatives are way too high among Republicans. He has offended to many people, changed his story too many times, changed positions too many times, and clearly has no conservative bona fides. Many people assume he is saying whatever will get him votes. I don’t doubt his native intelligence. I just have no reason whatsoever to believe he holds views all that similar to mine.
“Compared to Hillary? Are you being serious?”
Yes, and I’m right too. Remember, millions of Republicans refused to vote for Romney. They just stayed home even though that meant four more years of Obama. If some Republicans were willing to do that, then there are some who are willing to stand aside . . . and effectively allow Hillary to win. Do you think Jeb’s supporters will ever support Trump? Rubio’s? Kasich’s?
So where now? Rubio can't win alone. Cruz can't win alone. They are like Germany in WW I---they each need an ally. But do they gang up on Trump (hating each other as they do)? Or does one deal with the Donald? You know my prediction (and so far I have been right on Trump) from last summer. Cruz and Trump met in NYC twice, an hour and a half each time. They were'n't looking at Jimmy Chu catalogues. The deal then was, I remain convinced, three fold:
1) Keep from attacking each other as long as possible. (Grade: A+). They managed to only say nice things about each other until December. Remarkable. I remember the second debate (I think second) where the moderator tried to get Trump to say something bad about Ted and he said "Oh he's all right. Don't you worry about him."
2) Once they had to fight, they agreed it would be no holds barred. I am sure back in June and July Trump said, "When we come to that point I'm using everything--birth, flip-flops, anything I can," and I'm sure Cruz said "same here. I will call you a liberal, question your values." May the best man win.
3) Where we almost are now: Ted has MUCH more in common with Trump than Rubes: they are both outsiders, despised by the party and elites, pretty much on the same side of the big issues. I think Cruz knows that with Trump he would have a good shot at the Supreme Court. With Rubes, I think he knows he'll be a convenience, completely ignored if they win.
If I am Ted Cruz I give it til Super Tues, but the reality in "deal making" is you have to deal while you have cards to play. If Trump wins many more, Ted's cards will be gone.
Always interesting, LS. Thanks.
“3) Where we almost are now: Ted has MUCH more in common with Trump than Rubes: they are both outsiders, despised by the party and elites, pretty much on the same side of the big issues. I think Cruz knows that with Trump he would have a good shot at the Supreme Court. With Rubes, I think he knows he’ll be a convenience, completely ignored if they win.”
Win/win.
Fascinating to see how this plays out.
We will see if Ted is as smart as most of us here think he is.
His ability to do a ground game is impressive, even in losing. Can he repeat that in a really blue state? Dunno. Geographically, he adds a little (New Yorker, Texan, but both have same basic appeal). In intangibles, Cruz would be a treasure by giving Trump the Constitutional wherewithal in cabinet meetings to properly frame everything-—without embarrassing him in public by contradicting him (i.e., in a debate).
ditto post 215
lots of liberal attitude here. Those who ‘know’ what is best for the rest.
The dynamics, considering what is at stake for the republic, are breathtaking. Going forward, both men and their detractors will be exposed.
HOORAY Cruz
HOORAY Trump
Maybe not. But it does make it more likely.
Piffle. All of the GOPe rules mean nothing, nada, zippo. The fact is Donald Trump/s towering wins mean that he now OWNS the Republican Party. Anything the GOPe did is DOA....including rules that were meant to cement the establishment candidates in power.
THIS IS THE BEST PART Party leaders are scared to death of Trump/s candidacy. They know he can make his own rules.
How did that work out for them?
No politician has survived so much time in the furnace with so little scarring to show for it. His negatives all relate to the beating he gave those who did it to him.
Talk about tempering. I can't imagine anyone wanting to try THAT again. Well, in fact, the result of Bush's and GOPe's $100M spend was that Bush said enough already.
What we learned from that is that Cruz's position is that Trump lied about him lying about Trump lying about Cruz lying. Oh and that Crewzoids claim he is the "true conservative," and that voters think that is largely irrelevant. We know Trump's views quite well. We can all recite them. Cruz's? Uh, ah, uh, well, er, uh, he is a really really smart ivy League lawyer -and uh conservative.
Cruz schlonged himself, and I don't know how he backs out of the morass he has entangled himself in.
Trump can get back on message easily. In fact, he never got off message - luxury condo [hardwood cabinets, gym, swimming pool, two parking places, guarded door, 5th avenue shopping, views of NYC]. We all know the list.
LOL! That is like taking title to a toxic waste dump.
I don’t think the GOP knows what they’ll be in for IF they somehow screw Trump out of the nomination after he amasses a commanding number of delegates. They’re used to making deals with politicians. If they say to Trump privately “Hey, if you fall on your sword on this one your turn will be next election”. Or “If you fall on your sword on this one we’ll take care of you for life”....he’s going to go public early and often and rat out the entire nest of vipers. He will essentially destroy the GOP as a party and basically put every GOP hack out of a job. After he does this his popularity is going to skyrocket.
Trump is only in it to get Jeb Bush elected.
I don’t buy that reasoning in the least. That is the lesser of two evils argument. We’ve been sold a bill of goods with that line over and over again. When people finally realize that voting the liberal to represent the conservative brand then maybe just maybe Conservatism will be relavant again. Conservatives have sold their souls to the cheapest used car salesman out there.
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