Posted on 02/11/2016 10:55:58 AM PST by Kaslin
I know, I should quit saying, "I told you so." But I was right in December 2014 in this column and I'm still right more than a year later, after the New Hampshire primary. Donald Trump gets it when it comes to how so many frustrated Americans feel. He has tapped into a populist revulsion to a national political tableau of political correctness, indecisiveness, weakness and expanded government power and spending.
And it's not that I'm in the bag for Trump. My son's Opinion Savvy polling firm, which I use for my analysis, was about the only pollster to show Trump not winning big in Iowa, which is not our home territory. The South is home, however, and it happens to be where the Republican nomination will be decided this year.
But before explaining how that will go down, let's reflect on why Trump kicked butt in the nation's first primary in New Hampshire.
Trump's victory was a validation of his blunt, tell-it-like-it-is approach, as opposed to what has for years been mundane, play-it-safe Republican politics. And his "ground game" in New Hampshire was the huge number of events attended by his sons and daughter, as well as by Trump himself.
How did I recognize more than a year ago that Trump's approach might work? Because I spent decades working with a man named Newt Gingrich. Gingrich built his brand by taking on his party's establishment and making blunt and sometimes controversial statements. And Trump has the same indefatigable energy and zeal that Gingrich showed throughout his political career.
Yes, Gingrich had much greater knowledge of the political process and government. But Trump has sophisticated financial and business experience that no modern-day politician can match. And as Newt would freely admit, Trump has the one thing that cost Gingrich the nomination in 2012 after he won in South Carolina: money. Recall that Mitt Romney, the establishment candidate that year, had plenty of cash and he spent it to savage Gingrich in a Florida primary that followed less than a week after Gingrich's South Carolina win.
And money is becoming even more important as we move toward the coming contests in the South. If he chooses to, Trump can outspend all of his opponents combined. The several establishment candidates left standing after New Hampshire -- John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio -- must spend precious resources just to try to leave the Palmetto State with a chance to emerge viable going into the big "SEC" southern-dominated Super Tuesday of March 1.
That means that the candidates vying for the right to carry a lone establishment flag into Florida's likely decisive winner-take-all contest in mid-March will have to spend their next week in South Carolina attacking one another instead of Trump. And they won't be able to spend much time picking at Ted Cruz, who will escape from the evangelical-voter-starved Northeast to a South Carolina GOP that has a strong contingent of the voters who are more likely to support his candidacy.
And Trump's endless visits to southern states, plus his vocal support for veterans, will give him an additional boost in South Carolina, which is filled with military and ex-military voters.
So, as was noted in this column several weeks ago, South Carolina will not be about defeating Trump or Cruz. Both will likely emerge with more delegates than the other contestants, and both will remain more than viable going into the March contests. Instead, the South Carolina Republican primary will be about which of the three remaining establishment contestants will be still standing and with cash on hand to remain viable.
Conventional wisdom among the usual DC/NY pundits is that once the establishment choice emerges, that candidate will consolidate the vote of all the other mainstream candidates and the math will favor that candidate wiping Trump and Cruz out. That is way off base.
The states that will decide this contest, like Georgia and Florida, are different animals than Iowa or New Hampshire. Trump's populist themes resonate much more with southern voters. And no, a Florida GOP contest is not that different from a Georgia or Tennessee primary. While Cruz will take the majority of evangelical votes, Trump will take a strong share as well.
No, it's no guarantee that Trump will win it all. But I'm 100 percent sure, in proud Trumpian style, that I'm still right: 14 months and going strong.
You really need to get out more. I was talking to a couple of fairly liberal people the other day and they were saying that the Democrats would win the election because we would nominate Cruz and they would nominate Hillary and that she would get all the typical minority and special interest groups to vote for her to put her over the top. I said what if Trump were the nominee? Would he not turn people out who don’t usually vote at all? Wouldn’t he get some Democrats to vote for him - people who would otherwise not even consider voting GOP? All of a sudden their entire demeanor changed. They went from boasting the the GOP had no chance to win...to likely winning IF Trump were the nominee. I would like to think any of our candidates could beat any Democrat in November...but I also think that only Trump could win in a landslide and honestly say he has a mandate.
If Trump gets too far in the lead expect the Justice Department to indict him for something... perhaps for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor or something (libs would believe anything).
Oh I forgot this (Same op-ed)
Creators.com op-ed by Matt Towery 14 Months and Counting, I'm Still Right About Trump
I have always respected your opinion.
To win in 2016, we need to pickup Blue States.
Which Blue States will Cruz bring to the table?
Maybe Iowa but I don’t think so after pi**ing off Ethanol farmers.
Truthfully, I expect a Cruz ticket would loose AZ, CO, MO and not pickup a single Blue State
Passion is a good thing but it only goes so far.
“Trump is still a flip-flopping foul-mouthed liberal with no conservative bone in his body”
Trump is pro-America and has a lot to lose if the election goes badly for him AND if the conditions in the country get any worse.
Country over Party. That’s my motto.
Cruz, Rubio, Trump...what they said about Trade & Guns in their announcement speech. Stunning comparison.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3395582/posts?page=136#136
Because everyone loves Hillary and socialism. Step aside, Sarah Palin! Here comes Hillary on a charm offensive. IT girl of 2016, her chunky cankles drive the boys wild!
Or if you prefer, the wildman of Vermont will wow you with his custom time machine, back to the future in 1917! Feel the Bern when taxes hit 88%! Such win. How can Trump beat that?
14 Months and Counting, I'm Still Right About Trump
Not all Townhall.com op-eds are anti Trump
got it?
That goes for all
Who don't know
You are absolutely spot on right! All these trumpeters who think that the media has gone after Trump are clueless. All they’ve done is snipe around the edges in an attempt to try to ensure the election is between a Democrat and a GOPe, which they correctly believe the Dem will win.
However, there is so much more that they’re saving for if he gets the nomination. Because ultimately what they’re after is a Democrat win.
Because of his decisive lack of character, shady business dealings, absence of morals, political flip flopping and the highest unfavorables in the entire race (yes, worse than Hillary), Trump is the one candidate that is guaranteed to lose.
And I know I’m not convincing a single one of the Trumpeters. But mark my words, if he gets the nomination, seven months from now, the vast majority of them will be realizing just what a disaster they will have wrought. Fools, one and all.
{Donald Trump gets it when it comes to how so many frustrated Americans feel. He has tapped into a populist revulsion....}
I agree. Too bad so many are pouring what they want into his contemptible vessel as the outlet for their frustrations.
No body cares about your OPINIONS.
Actually you are confirming my support for Trump.
Based on your post, I am sending another contribution to Trump today.
I am appalled by dirty tricksters. The Iowa dirty trick about Dr Carson leaving the race stink to high heaven. Bible does not approve lies.
You long ago showed yourself to be among the most deranged Trumpeters...so no surprise. Have fun with that.
Winning is great! No dirty tricks from the Trump campaign. Are you not bothered to back a campaign employing dirty tricks in Iowa, spreading false rumors about Dr Carson leaving? Show me where in bible it says it is OK to Lie?
Only the Quran justifies Taqiyya.
What’s a Townhall.com?
PS According to the Heritage Foundation, only 25% of evangelicals vote anyway so make a plan that doesn't depend on their turnout
You calling me deranged? Resorting to Ad Hominem now?
May be Forest Gump is right, it takes one to know one!
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