Posted on 02/11/2016 10:55:58 AM PST by Kaslin
I know, I should quit saying, "I told you so." But I was right in December 2014 in this column and I'm still right more than a year later, after the New Hampshire primary. Donald Trump gets it when it comes to how so many frustrated Americans feel. He has tapped into a populist revulsion to a national political tableau of political correctness, indecisiveness, weakness and expanded government power and spending.
And it's not that I'm in the bag for Trump. My son's Opinion Savvy polling firm, which I use for my analysis, was about the only pollster to show Trump not winning big in Iowa, which is not our home territory. The South is home, however, and it happens to be where the Republican nomination will be decided this year.
But before explaining how that will go down, let's reflect on why Trump kicked butt in the nation's first primary in New Hampshire.
Trump's victory was a validation of his blunt, tell-it-like-it-is approach, as opposed to what has for years been mundane, play-it-safe Republican politics. And his "ground game" in New Hampshire was the huge number of events attended by his sons and daughter, as well as by Trump himself.
How did I recognize more than a year ago that Trump's approach might work? Because I spent decades working with a man named Newt Gingrich. Gingrich built his brand by taking on his party's establishment and making blunt and sometimes controversial statements. And Trump has the same indefatigable energy and zeal that Gingrich showed throughout his political career.
Yes, Gingrich had much greater knowledge of the political process and government. But Trump has sophisticated financial and business experience that no modern-day politician can match. And as Newt would freely admit, Trump has the one thing that cost Gingrich the nomination in 2012 after he won in South Carolina: money. Recall that Mitt Romney, the establishment candidate that year, had plenty of cash and he spent it to savage Gingrich in a Florida primary that followed less than a week after Gingrich's South Carolina win.
And money is becoming even more important as we move toward the coming contests in the South. If he chooses to, Trump can outspend all of his opponents combined. The several establishment candidates left standing after New Hampshire -- John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio -- must spend precious resources just to try to leave the Palmetto State with a chance to emerge viable going into the big "SEC" southern-dominated Super Tuesday of March 1.
That means that the candidates vying for the right to carry a lone establishment flag into Florida's likely decisive winner-take-all contest in mid-March will have to spend their next week in South Carolina attacking one another instead of Trump. And they won't be able to spend much time picking at Ted Cruz, who will escape from the evangelical-voter-starved Northeast to a South Carolina GOP that has a strong contingent of the voters who are more likely to support his candidacy.
And Trump's endless visits to southern states, plus his vocal support for veterans, will give him an additional boost in South Carolina, which is filled with military and ex-military voters.
So, as was noted in this column several weeks ago, South Carolina will not be about defeating Trump or Cruz. Both will likely emerge with more delegates than the other contestants, and both will remain more than viable going into the March contests. Instead, the South Carolina Republican primary will be about which of the three remaining establishment contestants will be still standing and with cash on hand to remain viable.
Conventional wisdom among the usual DC/NY pundits is that once the establishment choice emerges, that candidate will consolidate the vote of all the other mainstream candidates and the math will favor that candidate wiping Trump and Cruz out. That is way off base.
The states that will decide this contest, like Georgia and Florida, are different animals than Iowa or New Hampshire. Trump's populist themes resonate much more with southern voters. And no, a Florida GOP contest is not that different from a Georgia or Tennessee primary. While Cruz will take the majority of evangelical votes, Trump will take a strong share as well.
No, it's no guarantee that Trump will win it all. But I'm 100 percent sure, in proud Trumpian style, that I'm still right: 14 months and going strong.
Wow, a Townhall piece that’s not all about the bashing of Trump. Color me shocked! The Salem Media powers that be must have decided that reader backlash across their sites was in need of some tamping, LOL.
Trump will run the table.
Cruz will be second.
The GOP establishment is not going to make the cut, no matter who is still around by the time its March.
Trump is still a flip-flopping foul-mouthed liberal with no conservative bone in his body
Trump can’t win in November under any circumstances
He’s twice as popular as every one else and still fills stadiums on a good day.
You don’t have to like him, agree with all of his current ideas, or not be concerned about some or his past positions... You just have to realize that this is a pivotal time for our country. We cannot afford to nominate someone who will not win. A Bernie or Hillary win means our country will plummet to certain destruction. It is that important. Even with their lame race, almost as many Democrats voted in the last two contests. In the general election we will be facing hoards of voters who want to get something for nothing. It is going to be a tight race. Among the Republican contestants only Trump has a realistic chance of actually winning.
And Mitch McConnell is a rock solid conservative
I hate to tell you, but as sincere as your beliefs may be, you sound like a kook.
“Trump can’t win in November under any circumstances”
And yet you can’t envision a way that Cruz won’t, right?
You insist on playing the Identity Politics card but you don’t seem to understand it doens’t work any better for you than it has for the Democrats. Trying to discredit Trump for not being “conservative” is going to work only amongst those who think that being a conservative is a good thing, and those people are already split with Cruz and a couple others anyway (plus the No Votes who will just stay home).
So go ahead and repeat it all you want, it’s not even a factor. And if you run out of steam, go to Denver and tell the Bronco’s fans that they’re just not Panther-like enough. People don’t need youe identify label to tell them who a winner is.
Everyone was certain he would get out of the race. Then they were certain that he would drop in the polls. Then they were certain he wouldn't win any elections. Then they were certain he wouldn't get the nomination. And now it's gone up to he'll never win beat the Democrats. If I were a betting man I'd bet on Trump every time.
I hope your right.
You are a brilliant rock star.
Don’t like Trump? Take half your paycheck and imagine it gone to the feds. At least.
That’s Bernie and his new socialism.
Who can afford to not like Trump?
After that, consider the coming joys of socialized medicine under Bernie or Hillary.
Sure you don’t like Trump enough to vote for him?
Me too! I did a double take that it was from Townhall. A go Trump piece, imagine that.
Hey noobie, Townhall.com did not write the op-ed.
Townhall.com published the op-ed. The author of the op-ed is Matt Towery.
Come back when you know the difference.
Trump can win.
But more than that he’ll be able to get things done once he’s in office. That’s the real reason democrats hate him... he’ll make a difference.
Trump will build the wall. He’ll make trade deals that work FOR the United States. Vets will be treated better than prisoners at GITMO. Our military will become a military again - and not a liberal elite social experiment. Jobs will start coming back...
I like Cruz but Cruz’s strong points are a keen intellect and great debate skills. They’re not ‘getting everyone on board’ and making things happen. When democrats say we should all work together - they mean we should work with THEM. When Trump says we need to work together he means they need to work with US. BIG difference. Huge.
When Trump wins South Carolina hopefully he’ll spend the first 8 minutes acceptance with a knock down drag out written speech (speechwriter time - metaphorical black tie) that speaks to people sitting at home who don’t go to rallies but are starting to believe. Then after the 8 minutes of reading the speech, he can toss it and do what he does best - have a pep rally that’s fun for all of us.
Join with us GeronL
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.