Posted on 01/31/2016 11:39:50 AM PST by Red Steel
One more day to the Iowa Caucuses - and the public is pretty sure they know what will happen. Voters aren't necessarily happy about the influence the first caucus and primary states hold. Still, many potential voters admit that what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire will be important in deciding how they will cast their ballot.
In the latest national Economist/YouGov Poll, pluralities of both Republicans and Democrats think Iowa and New Hampshire have too much influence on who wins the parties' presidential nominations.
Half the public isn't sure whether the Iowa-New Hampshire dominance needs to change, and partisans are closely divided on whether Iowa and New Hampshire should remain as the first-in-the-nation, or whether other states should take that position.
Still, the results in Iowa and New Hampshire will matter to many voters. A majority of Democrats and more than four in ten Republicans say what happens in those two states will be important in deciding how they will vote for President.
Americans are pretty sure they know what to expect on Monday night, and it will be a victory for the frontrunners. By far, Republican primary voters expect Donald Trump to prevail in the caucuses, while Democratic voters see a Hillary Clinton win coming. As for New Hampshire, Republican voters again see a big Trump victory, while Democratic voters narrowly see Sanders, who comes from neighboring Vermont, as who has been leading in New Hampshire polls, as the winner.
Republicans see something - or at least hope for something - very different happening on the Democratic side. They expect Sanders to take both events: by 49% to 23% they think the Vermont Senator will carry the Iowa caucuses over Clinton, and by 55% to 16% they think he will do the same in New Hampshire. This may reflect their wish for Sanders to defeat Clinton, who is extremely unpopular with Republicans, or more interest in the polls, which have generally shown a close race in Iowa and a large Sanders lead in New Hampshire.
Of course, public opinion on who will win has always been affected by opinion polls and campaign events. Clinton and Trump remain in front nationally when their respective partisans are asked who will win each party’s nomination, but they also rank first for electability. 82% of Republican primary voters say Trump could win in the fall, 90% of Democratic voters believe Clinton could win.
Donald Trump's best numbers yet
In national preference, Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, by more than two-to-one among Republican who say they will participate in the presidential selection process in their own state. 43% is Trump's highest level of support recorded so far in YouGov/Economist Polls on the race.
Clinton's lead over Sanders in preference with Democratic voters nationwide is much smaller.
Anger at the entire process is helping fuel two candidacies - those of Donald Trump's and Bernie Sanders. More than three in four Republicans agree with the statement that they are "mad as hell as not going to take it anymore," compared with 54% of Democrats. (Overall anger at the system is higher today than in 1992, when CBS News asked this question). Nine in ten Trump supporters are "mad as hell."
On the Democratic side, while there may be less anger, those primary voters who are angry are as likely to support Sanders as they are to support Clinton. Those who aren't angry favor Clinton by more than two to one.
From that same website they posted a poll on the number of Democratic voters supporting socialism. More reason why that political party needs to be defeated from DC down to dogcatcher level.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/01/28/democrats-remain-divided-socialism/
The last 3 weeks have been devastating to Cruz.
It started with his New York Values comment at the debate.
His omission of the Goldman Sachs Citi-Bank loan did not help.
Glenn Beck endorsement was insane.
His Faux News debate performance was way below average.
And of course, the Mailer that insulted Iowa voters.
He has had a rough 3 weeks.
Absolutely stunning. Trump at 43-18. Unprecedented in a fractured field. This comports with the new Reuters which had Trump at 42. Waiting for the posters to start jumping on the 2nd choice numbers which are largely irrelevant. The tremendous advantage that Trump has in 1st choice margin, guarantees that his second choice numbers will be lower than anyone else’s. If you have all the 1st place votes there’s no need to get 2nd place ones.
Talk about a worthless poll.
Funny thing about primaries, the whole country does not vote at eh same time nor do voters vote in elections outside their state.
Well not legally anyway.
So the only poll that counts is the ones of Iowa voters.
So, this begs the question, why even waste the bandwidth to post it.
Perception becomes reality.
So, there goes the “first and second choice” meme. Now Trump is solidly ahead in not only first (Yuge) but in first and second (9 points) over Cruz.
And another Cruz talking point out the window.
The last one to fall before this “He’s ahead in the only poll that counts, DMR.”
Before that it was, “Well, Cruz is still ahead in the RCP average of IA.”
I fully expect Cruz to win the Iowa caucuses.
Uh oh, “Only IA counts” meme. The threads are getting thinner and thinner for the Tedibans to cling to.
Sorry, but your guy is losing big. I guess the only defense is to call the poll worthless
So, this begs the question, why even waste the bandwidth to post It
Because Freepers like you can’t resist commenting on it.
After all, you took the time to read it and comment.
You complain about the thread, then post a comment on it.
You sound like a Cruz supporter.
Did you fully expected to win the Powerball too?
Selected Trump articles on FR, with links, from 12:00 AM to 3:00 PM EST, 1/31/16:
Americans expect Trump, Clinton victories ahead of Iowa Caucuses(Poll: Trump 43%, Cruz 18%) [YouGov]
Dear FRiends, We need your continuing support to keep FR going strong. [FReepathon thread XXXI]
Nobody Knows: The State of the Primaries and the Nation
2016 President - Primaries (latest betting on Iowa caucus) [Predictwise]
A crowd led by 'Duck Dynasty' star blows duck calls for Trump at a Cruz rally in Iowa [Phil; for Cruz]
Minnesota GOP Rules Change after Ron Paul Delegates Win May Give Donald Trump the Win
Coulter: FOX Is 'Indistinguishable From George Soros' On Immigration: 'Implacably Pro-Open Borders
Trump: Unlike Cruz, 'I Have a Heart,' I'll Enact Universal Health Coverage
Trump Winning Over Latinos [NY Post]
Trump rips 'dishonest' and 'deceptive' Cruz mailer
Reuters Polling (January 29,2016)
The 'Magic Number' That Could Decide Trump vs. Cruz in Iowa
Reformer Sen. Cruz and Brutal Mr. Hyde
Iowa Caucus - Free Republic Prediction Thread
Cruz: Trump 'Owes At Least $480 Million Right Now' [Ted's financial ignorance on display]
The Jeb Bush Hatchet Man Who Might Accidentally Elect Donald Trump (Mike Murphy)
Carr: Media may determine Iowa, The Donald will get his due in N.H. [Howie Carr - Boston Globe]
Donald Trump saved the Veterans Parade in NYC in 1995.
GOP braces for Trump Iowa result
LIVE THREAD: TWO TRUMP RALLIES today Council Bluffs @ 1pm (CST) & Sioux City @ 6pm
Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 31 January 2016
Insider warns elites heading toward 'one-world solutions' [on the issues]
Iowa blizzard watch for Monday night (caucus night) through Tuesday night
The Apprentice US - Trump's Best Firing (Part 1)
The Best Pollster In Iowa Just Released Its Final Survey - How Accurate Has It Been? [FiveThirtyEight]
What if Trump or Cruz wins the SC primary?
A Reagan Doctrine for the Twenty-First Century - Let's take off our gloves [on the issues]
The superfan behind the Trump billboard in Iowa everyone is talking about [Awesome!]
"World is divided between pagan brutality and the Christian ideal... [on the issues]
Free Republic 2016 Caucus Open Discussion Thread XII
“Nine in ten Trump supporters are “mad as hell.”
Got that right!
I think you will find this very interesting (as I do):
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-support-in-iowa-is-narrow-but-deep/
LMAO!!!!!!
Thanks.
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