Posted on 01/31/2016 12:04:23 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political world - us included - was eagerly awaiting this survey, as Ann Selzer, who has conducted the Register's polls since the 1988 caucuses, has a very good track record. But just how predictive of the final results have Selzer's polls been? History suggests they're a good indicator of what will happen in Monday's Iowa caucuses, though there is room for a candidate or two to surprise.
I've gathered Selzer's final caucus polls for Republicans and Democrats since she started at the Register. For each race, I've calculated the difference between all candidates' polled percentage of support and their final share of the vote.
Selzer's final poll has correctly projected every single winner except for Republican Rick Santorum in 2012.
And the Register poll's successes haven't been limited to blowout races. She caught the late momentum for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and famously called Barack Obama's victory in 2008.
Even when Selzer's final poll missed the winner in 2012, it still indicated the potential for Santorum to win. The survey was conducted over four days, and in addition to the topline, aggregate numbers, Selzer released day-by-day results. The final day of her last 2012 caucus poll showed Santorum within a percentage point of Mitt Romney. In fact, the average error per candidate of the last day of her final 2012 caucus poll was just 1.9 percentage points.
Indeed, what makes Selzer truly special isn't just that she calls winners but that her error rates are fairly low across all candidates. Her average error per candidate per year has been just 3.3 percentage points. That means that what a candidate receives in her poll is probably going to be pretty close to what he or she gets from voters.
That's not to say the Des Moines Register poll is perfect. It sometimes misses on a candidate by a lot. Selzer's final poll in 1988 missed Republican Pat Robertson's eventual vote share by just more than 10 percentage points. Same thing with Kerry in 2004.
Who might benefit from that type of miss this time around? History suggests there are two types of candidates who tend to outperform their polls. The first is a candidate who does well among Christian conservatives. Selzer's final polls on the Republican side in 1988, 1996 and 2012 all missed the candidate favored by Christian conservatives by at least 8.5 percentage points. That could be good news for Cruz. Secondly, candidates with late momentum, such as Kerry in 2004 and Santorum in 2012, also tend to beat their polls. That could be beneficial to Rubio, who seems to be gaining in some polls.
Could there also be a big error on the Democratic side? It's possible, but Selzer did particularly well in 2000, the last Democratic campaign with only a few candidates running. Fewer candidates means voters have an easier time settling on one candidate and reallocation of support becomes less of an issue.
Of course, we won't know how accurate Selzer's final poll is this year until Monday or the day after. It's worth remembering, however, that even the best pollsters - and Selzer is one of the best - aren't perfect.
Frame it anyway you like.
If you believe that by making me “scorned” “grieving” “hateful” and “resentful” helps your candidate, go for it.
“Bile flowing” from my “mouth and fingers?”
My my.
I think its going to dramatically change at the last minute.
many people are holding back opinions and just keeping it to themselves, its just too nasty out there what with instant social networking.
ALL the polls will be inaccurate, thats my guess.
I am sorry but it is true deary. You are filled with hate, and not kindness. I am so sorry Scott took a dive. Get over it.
Oh and why did you wipe out your former tag line? Acceptance? You are still at the anger stage.
I don’t use tag lines.
I remember the Walker one
You “remember” wrong.
I have NEVER used tag lines.
Oh wait you are right. It was your whole hog support of him, or do I have that wrong too?
After he got knocked out you came here like a woman scorned.
Yes, thanks for correcting me.
She is not attractive. Sorry, that aint gonna fly.
That was my point.
For my part, I would let everyone do anything. But, your screed gets tiresome since it is really nothing more than a drive-by shot with you fleeing the consequences. I think you have posted every article from any source, no matter how lame, leftist or discredited, with approval, if it casts a pall on DT. It makes you the mouthpiece of the open borders crowd despite your protest that you support another good candidate.
I just think you might want to re-think your approach.
You are correct that my support for Walker was “whole hog.”
But your attempt to characterize my “whole hog” opposition to Trump as stemming from Walker leaving the race, is merely a ploy to move the topic off Trump’s failings.
I get it.
So does everyone reading this thread.
I know you don’t like information about Trump circulated for everyone to see.
I get it.
But this is America and there still is freedom of speech.
I do exchange comments with others (there are times I can’t or don’t want to fence with posters personally insulting me) so your description of me as “fleeing the consequences” - though telling - is inaccurate and misleading.
the part about Christian voters gets me to 50/50.
reduced to infantile threats?
no different from wild eyed libs. Shout down and shut the opposition. No dissent permitted.
Nope. Just stated the facts. I am not management. I saw what happened, and from the looks of it management has had enough of it. No more trolling.
Troll at your own risk.
No life Guards on duty.
You mean nasty like here?
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