Posted on 01/02/2016 3:01:51 PM PST by entropy12
Republicans say that Trump^s ground game, which has been the source of intense speculation, is the real deal. That is critical, as Trump is banking on turning out a diverse coalition of caucus-goers that have not historically participated in the process.
A poor showing in Iowa could doom Trump, as his flashy polling numbers and record of winning are central to his pitch.
He is definitely for real out here, said one Iowa Republican official who requested anonymity. The question is whether the people they have identified as supporters will turn out. I am not convinced they will, but if he can turn out just half of them he could blow the top off this thing.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/264526-thirty-days-to-iowa-candidates-make-final-sprint
Amen....to the record setting turn out!
Go Trump!!!
Trump’s the only one I’m seeing filling football arenas, convention centers, three ballrooms at a time....yep, the turn out to vote for Trump is going to be Y U G E!!!
Perhaps. Or Trump could be this cycle’s Howard Dean.
Remember that Dean had very large rallies in Iowa too. However, on the night of the caucus, his supporters didn’t show up.
What can Iowa people here do to be the ground game? People can volunteer at phone banks and remind people to vote, drive people to polling places, etc.
Iowa had an unsuccessful ground game. Stanford killed them.
I am trying to contain my expectations. Realistically, Trump could finish in the top 2 in Iowa, and retain momentum into NH & SC.
If Trump wins 30% delegates before March 15, which are all proportional delegate states, he would have 345 delegates.
States holding primaries on super Tuesday March 15 and onward can do winner take all delegates, except NY. There are 1191 delegates up for grab. If Trump wins most of those states, he can get to the 1236 magic number without much problem.
If not, Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, American Samoa and Guam won’t hold presidential preference votes in 2016 in the hopes of granting delegates more autonomy. Trump should be able to get needed delegates there.
When I was at Univ of Iowa, Hawkeyes went to the Rose Bowl. I recall Forest Evashevski was the coach.
Cruz’s “Strike Force” of Texas Supporters Readies Iowa Push
http://www.texastribune.org/2015/12/04/cruzs-strike-force-sets-shop-begins-work-iowa/
So is Carly still rooting for Iowa? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Howard Dean had less than 5% total crowds at his rallies compared to sum of all Trump rallies. Apples & Oranges.
I live in small town Iowa. This morning when I went into the coffee shop three quarters of the coffee drinkers were wearing Trump caps.
I’m not a Trump support. Just reporting on what I saw.
Thanks for first hand report. I have not seen many Trump caps in Washington state around Seattle. But this area in King county is all democrats.
Iowa is a super tiny fraction of the total vote needed to gain a nomination. Just being first, it doesn’t make any other state’s vote less decisive. Plus it is a caucus and it isn’t quite the same as an election. Only delegates get to vote. They can be bought and sold. Trump could bomb completely in Iowa and the only effect would be the gloating of the media and GOP elites. Trump will win the nomination if he wants it. The only person who could be helped by winning is Jeb.
All states voting prior to March 15th are proportional delegate award states. Trump can easily win 30% delegates in those states, which would give him 345 delegates.
On March 15 is super Tuesday. Except NY, most states are winner take all starting March 15th. There are 1191 delegates up for grabs in winner take all states.
Trump needs to win 891 out of 1191 delegates. He can win by 1 vote over opponents and get all delegates in each state.
No other candidate is having these big of crowds and like I said earlier:
“The Silent Majority isn't the Silent Majority anymore, it's a REVOLUTION!!!”
Your advice seems relevant to primaries, more than caucus.
Cruz has 300,000 donors, 700 per Congressional District on average nationwide. Since hard D Chicago, NY, etc districts might have under 10 donors; and since Cruz campaigns heavily in IA it is likely that Cruz has about 1800 donors per Congressional District in IA. In other words one donor for each of the 1784 IA precincts.
Most of us Cruz supporters are unable to donate money. So it is likely Cruz averages 10 hard core supporters per precinct who are willing to recruit their family, friends and neighbors for Cruz.
Question: Is the Cruz organization attuned on how to use us volunteers?
I’m here in GA and only hear the crickets.
My prediction for Iowa is that Trump & Cruz will get the great bulk of the allocated delegates...with Rubio a distant third. The other candidates, if they are lucky, will get one delegate because of “rounding their percentage of the vote ‘up’”.
“I’m here in GA and only hear the crickets.”
Go to the Cruz website and contact them there or use their phone numer there and contact that way. They will use you if you let them know about you.
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