Posted on 12/31/2015 5:54:01 PM PST by Kaslin
That’s odd. What could Democrats possibly see in a lifelong true conservative like Donald Trump?
There’s something for everyone in Nate Cohn’s new post. If you’re a Trump fan, here’s the smoking gun that he really is a new Reagan, the guy who’s going to broaden the tent and sweep to victory in November by bringing centrist Democrats into the GOP. If you’re a Trump critic, here’s further proof that he’s the RINO of RINOs, a man who’s blended nationalism, center-left economics, and Jacksonian foreign policy into something that tastes better to members of the other party than it does to conservatives. That sounds a lot like Perotism, frankly — except, according to the (Democratic) pollster who provided Cohn with data, Trump’s geographic support is the opposite of Perot’s. Perot did best in the west and in New England. Trump cleans up in the south, up through Appalachia, and into the industrial northeastern states like New York. How do you explain that?
Cohn’s theory, comparing Trump’s map of support to a map of “racially charged Internet searches,” is that prejudice is driving some of his votes. There was nothing comparable in Perot’s campaign to Trump inveighing against rapists from Mexico and calling for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. (There’s no disputing that Trump is the favored candidate of the white nationalists of the “alt-right.”) On the other hand, how many Trump voters in economically distressed industrial areas in the eastern U.S. like Trump’s immigration rhetoric because they “hate” Mexicans and how many simply want less competition from foreign labor in the name of bringing back jobs to America? According to Cohn, Trump’s best state is West Virginia; West Virginia also happens to be the only state in the U.S. where (as of March of this year) less than half of the adult civilian population is employed. Being a protectionist doesn’t make you a racist. Either way, though, this part is certainly true — and important to the future of the GOP:
In many of these areas, a large number of traditionally Democratic voters have long supported Republicans in presidential elections. Even now, Democrats have more registered voters than Republicans do in states like West Virginia and Kentucky, which have been easily carried by Republicans in every presidential contest of this century. As recently as a few years ago, Democrats still had a big advantage in partisan self-identification in the same states.
But during the Obama era, many of these voters have abandoned the Democrats. Many Democrats may now even identify as Republicans, or as independents who lean Republican, when asked by pollsters a choice that means they're included in a national Republican primary survey, whether they remain registered as Democrats or not.
Conn Carroll put it this way:
I think a big part of what explains Trump is the natural growing pains of the GOP assimilating big govt whites leaving the Dem Party.
— Conn Carroll (@conncarroll) December 31, 2015
Right. The GOP is gradually becoming older and whiter due to white Democrats crossing the aisle for various reasons — contempt for some Democratic welfare programs, disagreement with progressives on cultural flashpoints like gay marriage, righteous disgust for the left’s insistence on open borders, racial anxiety, and so forth. On “values” issues, that influx of culturally conservative Dems will help entrench the GOP (for a while, at least) as a socially right-wing party despite more centrist tendencies among younger Republicans. Economically, though, it seems likely to do the opposite: Trump’s gone a long, long way this year preaching protectionism and zealous defense of entitlements, and as the Democratic constituency within the GOP grows, other Republican pols will feel pressure to follow suit. The Reagan revolution was about convincing centrist Dems to try smaller government and deregulation; the Trump revolution is about convincing them that big government will work for them with Donald Trump in charge. A populist would say that that’s really no different than what we have now, with GOP candidates preaching Reaganism to get elected and then practicing Trumpism once in office — except it’s Trumpism for the donor class, not for blue-collar voters. Reaganism remains the party’s ideological guiding star, though, at least for the moment. If Trump has a long run this year thanks to centrist Democrats coming out to vote for him in Republican primaries, does that change? How do you build a conservative party if a significant chunk of it is Democratic? Or do we no longer care about conservatism so long as we’ve got nationalism?
That’s the long-term problem. The short-term problem is one for Trump: How do you get these Democratic voters re-registered as Republicans and out to the polls in February? And if you’re Ted Cruz, how do you maintain your position as their second choice when you’re running as the staunchest conservative in the field? Maybe continuing to attack the “Washington cartel” without emphasizing too heavily how right-wing you are is enough. I’d be curious to see how Trump fans shake out, though, in a hypothetical match-up between Cruz and, say, Chris Christie after a month or two of Christie selling his own brand of alpha-male centrism on the trail beyond New Hampshire. If you want a guy who knows how to pander to Democratic voters and ostentatiously doesn’t care how boorish people find him, there’s an obvious choice. And it ain’t Ted Cruz.
Exit question: Is Trump’s Democratic support being oversold by Cohn? Look back at the numbers at the top. Even among registered Republicans, he’s just a hair shy of 30 percent support, enough to lead the field. Is that because a bunch of former Democrats have already re-registered as Republicans over the last 10 years and are responding to Trump? Or is Trump appealing in some ways even to longtime righties?
Yes, even Democrats want a job.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not only that , even Democrats want to be safe from some rag head touching themselves off on 10 pounds of strapped on dynamite at their kids schools.
Trump has it going for himself.And the rest of the field, Democrats and Republicans, are not as smart by over half.
Yesirreee!
I think the author was being facetious here.
maybe you should ruminate on that for a while....I only ruminate on your asininity. Blow it out.
Done.
And it was easier than you apparently think.
I appreciate your passion, but I resent your casual accusations. You don't know me at all.
Waaaaaaait a minute. Post # 169 wasn’t to you, or are you using 2 Freeper names?
Nope, I’ve used this and only this screen name since ‘98. After accusing me of wanting Hillary for president I assumed your generally directed comment in 169 included myself.
Hope you had a nice new years eve, btw.
"I was a Democrat for a period of time early on. And then I was also an independent.
And then I became a Republican."Donald Trump
click the pic
donate to the most conservative online site!
I believe that Trump will do what he says he will do and that alone makes him much more conservative than 40%of the conservatives in the Congress right now, people like McConnell and Gramnesty and the treacherous Ryan, speaker of the house of democrats and like the the man boenhead he replaced.
And he is also the only one running the speaks the magic word conservative Americans like, DEPORTAION OF ILLEGAL ALIENS! I am so sick of the worthless and foolish and evil dems and rinos of DC.
Trump has more conservative Supporters than everyone except Cruz.
Trumps at 40%. He has a lot of moderate Dems and Conservative Republicans when he controls almost half the GOP primary voters.
Rubio/Jeb/Kasich/Christie have mostly very liberal Democrats and ISIS preferring Republicans.
It’s Cruz #1
I agree Trump might be popular because of his mouth, but Cruz is the true conservative, if he isn’t on the ticket I’ll write him in.
Cruz votes for TPA
Cruz votes for Corker bill that gave Iran NUKES
Cruz supports Pathway Amnesty - avoids using the word “Deportation”
Cruz, the polite Hahvard debater will be eaten alive by Hellry and marxist media
Cruz has no chance to win Reagan Democrats, black Americans
Cruz has ZERO experience at building & running a successful business
Cruz is ultimately controlled by his financial sugar daddies
TRUMP is the ONLY candidate with the uber-successful record of business building and creating jobs
TRUMP is the ONLY candidate that can be a street fighter to save America and the Constitution
It’s not rocket science for those with a modicum of intelligence
Cruz needs a little more seasoning/experience and then his potential rises, imo.
I hope Trump or Cruz gets every democrat vote. Don’t you?
Your premise is mistaken. Democrats who like Trump like his tough talk on issues like illegal immigration and BLM. These are conservative positions. Democrats do not think Trump is a liberal.
You may be right or wrong about whether Trump is truly a conservative or a liberal. But you are mistaken if you think some democrats like him because they think he’s liberal.
I’m sure you thought Romney was a liberal. Romney did not get liberal democrat votes.
His policy objectives are what matter and they are more conservative than anyone else running, so great some Democrats are supporting conservative policies, gee Trump is brilliant!
The problem I saw with the movie The Big Short was how it left out how Clinton made it possible and legal and how Bush 2 keep it going. Otherwise a good movie but that is a HUGE thing to leave out.
Cruz was defending the constitution and winning battles for the Bill of Rights while Trust Fund Donnie was still giving money to Chuck Shumer and Hillary and saying what a great mayor Bill DeCommio would be.
Cruz was “shutting down the government” to fulfill his promise to fight Obamacare, while TFD was advocating for single-Payer - which he still does.
When he was a teenager, Cruz memorized the Constitution. Into his 40’s and 50’s TFD was bankrupting companies right and left and piling up wives like they were having a clearance sale at Eurotrash Models Outlet.
Cruz is a world class debater who will give Hillary a vivisection in a one-on-one. TFD will be at a loss once he runs out of schoolyard insults and says he’s going to “get all the best people” in response to the first 10 questions.
A brilliant lifelong fighter for conservatism versus a guy who thinks “nuclear triad” is a death metal trio.
You’re right. It doesn’t take much intelligence to see who any thinking CONSERVATIVE would choose.
Hank
I think Democrats - many of them - probably DO like his tough talk on immigration. But I’m sure a lot of them also like his support for gun restrictions and socialized medicine, and mostly his extensive history of supporting Democrat pols. They see him as a guy who isn’t “too” Republican and conservative and like that.
I get it.
But as a conservative that’s not really a source of encouragement for me. I suppose if we could somehow nominate Chuck Schumer, HE’D get a lot of Democrat votes too. But his election would be detrimental to what I believe in.
This isn’t an R-Team/D-Team thing for me. A statist with an R next to his name is no preferable to me than a statist with a D next to his name.
Hank
You think democrats see Trump as liberal. I disagree.
As for republicans versus democrats, please see my tagline.
No different than most giving a pass for GWB all those years. Trump has all the right people angry. It's a middle finger to the GOP. If you don't understand that then that's your problem.
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