Posted on 12/21/2015 5:29:30 AM PST by RoosterRedux
Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some polls may actually be understating his support, according to a new study.
The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally does better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
Why is that, and which polls are more accurate -- the online surveys that tend to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have generally shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer?
Morning Consult ran an experiment: It polled 2,397 potential Republican voters earlier this month using three different methods -- a traditional telephone survey with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones, an online survey and an interactive dialing technique that calls people by telephone and asks them to respond to recorded questions by hitting buttons on their phone.
By randomly assigning people to the three different approaches and running all at the same time, they hoped to eliminate factors that might cause results to vary from one poll to another.
The experiment confirmed that "voters are about six points more likely to support Trump when they're taking the poll online then when they're talking to a live interviewer," said Morning Consult's polling director, Kyle Dropp.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailypress.com ...
It’s kinda like the MSM mantra, “more guns, fewer owners” since people are reluctant to answer phone pollsters’ asking “Do you own guns & if yes, how many?”
“Do you support Donald Trump, YOU RACIST!!?”
;^)
Ted Cruz’ lead in Iowa, and four bucks, will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
Still six weeks out, that is all it means.
Ted Cruz may, if the needle is threaded exactly right, end up as the Republican Presidential candidate. At the moment, the issue is in a great deal of doubt, with no degree of certainty for anybody.
But beyond the Republican primary, there is a much wider pool of potential voters, and there is a sort of double campaign going on right now, one for the primary, and one for the general. In the general, The Donald has an appeal that is magnetic in nature, among what many here term the “low-information” voters. Face it, folks, partisans determine the primary winners, but charisma determines the general winners. And charisma showered on the “low-information” voters is what wins elections. They simply have to be persuaded to vote the “right” way, even if for all the wrong reasons.
There are way more of them than there are of us.
I don’t know if you’re being sarcastic or not, but Trump has put out more salient position papers in his plans than other candidates.
All the more sweeter is that he’s showing promise in a stronger relationship with Russians than with the Chinese.
Cruz is running an ad blitz here in Texas, not a good sign. He should be able to carry his home state of Texas without an ad blitz. I have not heard a single ad for Trump and last time I checked Trump was ahead in Texas.
Lots of “quiet” Trump supporters. Myself included. I will tell people to their face I prefer Rubio or Christie (I admit I’m pretty RINO but I’m a long time freeper) but I know neither of them will get it.
Cruz is running an ad blitz here in Texas, not a good sign. He should be able to carry his home state of Texas without an ad blitz. I have not heard a single ad for Trump and last time I checked Trump was ahead in Texas.
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If true, that does not bode well for Cruz.
You do, however, hear ads for Trump 24/7. No newscast is complete without a Trump segment. Why waste money on commercials between the free ads?
Being part of a newscast is significantly better than a paid advertisement.
Same here, my friends will gladly lie to any polling just to see how much it messes them up.
“She’s a liar everybody know that” LOL, on national TV too. Telling like it is, in plain language is why Trump is ahead. Trump explodes more heads than all the other (GOP) candidates combined.
I was ‘polled’ Friday night by a Gallup pollster, or so they said......................
But . . . he’s “surging.”
I believe this to e true because they are not polling democrats who plan to vote for Trump
âSheâs a liar everybody know thatâ LOL, on national TV too. Telling like it is, in plain language is why Trump is ahead. Trump explodes more heads than all the other (GOP) candidates combined.
Truth in politics is hate speech. Got to reach across the aisle and bend over, that is the only acceptable way.
I believe Trump has far more support than any of the polls are actually picking up.... I know the GOPe currently is hoping for a contested convention, but I fully expect Trump to not just have a plurality, but a straight majority at least from the election side, doesn’t mean the GOPe won’t try to play games with superdelgates.
Watching the CNN Cuomo try to swallow his human face with his lizard mouth this morning was worth a pay per view. He was reacting with anger to Donald asking Cankles for an apology.
This might be the case, a kind of Bradley effect. While I would support him in the general, I am a little embarrassed to admit to others that I would, unless the express support for Trump first.
LOL, got a link? I’d like to see that.
Probably correct. I’ve thought for some time, with fewer landlines and more cell only voters, that an online polling company with a large database of voters, scientifically categorized as to various demographics, etc., could conduct polls with more accurate samples than one relying on telephone calls.
I would like to believe this, and they have some evidence, but overall we placed way, way too much stock in the “Wilder Effect” in 2008 and 2012. So I prefer to take the polls as they are-—good and bad.
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