Posted on 12/21/2015 5:29:30 AM PST by RoosterRedux
Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some polls may actually be understating his support, according to a new study.
The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally does better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
Why is that, and which polls are more accurate -- the online surveys that tend to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have generally shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer?
Morning Consult ran an experiment: It polled 2,397 potential Republican voters earlier this month using three different methods -- a traditional telephone survey with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones, an online survey and an interactive dialing technique that calls people by telephone and asks them to respond to recorded questions by hitting buttons on their phone.
By randomly assigning people to the three different approaches and running all at the same time, they hoped to eliminate factors that might cause results to vary from one poll to another.
The experiment confirmed that "voters are about six points more likely to support Trump when they're taking the poll online then when they're talking to a live interviewer," said Morning Consult's polling director, Kyle Dropp.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailypress.com ...
Ping
Careful, you are about to cause mass heart failure in the TDS sufferers.
Reverse Wilder effect again?
I think Jeb must be one of the college educated Republicans that are reluctant to admit they are supporting Trump....
Exactly. Didn’t you know Cruz has already wrapped up the nomination because he’s ahead in Iowa?? /s/
I have ran into a lot of people I know that whisper that they are voting for Trump but don’t want others to know...
I have a feeling there is a lot of that going on, and as far as the polls go, a lot of us have cell phones and don’t answer ‘unknown’ callers....
Right Cruz is 5 pts behind in his home state, tx. So the nomination is his
-—a lot of people-—
many folks are reluctant to declare until they feel a stiff breeze indicating the wind direction. What you have noted is that the breeze is stiffening
One nice thing about having a cell phone only (no land line at all) is they are not catalogged in a telephone directory making them open prey for for telemarketers.
Point being, I believe freedom lovers enjoy privacy and would tend to not want their phone number published. This type of person is being missed and if tapped into would likely cause Trump’s numbers to soar even more.
Our phone is not published. If we do not know the number we wait for a message.
Absolutely! Been saying it for weeks!
That's because the Left has declared they will shoot Trump supporters on sight.
To say nothing of the evil things FReepers will call you...
Ping in case you missed this.
This article makes a lot of sense.
I don’t have a landline, just cell. I wonder how that affects the numbers.
Quick, somebody get over to the Salem studios and resuscitate Bill Bennett.
Ah, but you forget - Ted Cruz has a super-duper secret plan for sweeping the nomination that he's just not old us about yet - because it's a secret.
Whether it is factual or hyperbole or anywhere between, I feel Trump has already changed America for the better. I sure hope he can keep the message going.
I get polled a lot (via landline telephone) but almost always for Mississippi issues.
Most polling is “press 1 for Yes,” etc. or IOW, automated.
I have NOT been polled with regard to GOP POTUS candidates save for the calls from CRUZ’s campaign because I have donated money to him.
I have ran into a lot of people I know that whisper that they are voting for Trump but don’t want others to know...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.