Posted on 12/12/2015 4:56:15 PM PST by Amntn
According to the latest Des Moines Register Poll, (full pdf below) of 400 Republican caucus goers, candidate Ted Cruz has surged into the lead with 31% support - a gain of 21 points since DMR's previous polling:
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
A 21 point jump in one state only sounds reasonable /s
A few weeks before the 2012 caucus this polling outfit had Santorum at 6%.
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/GingrichSurgesinNewIowaPresidentialPoll/2011/12/03/id/419863/
Santorum won the caucus with 25% on January 3rd.
...and they did this with Carson, and they’ll do it with Rubio...so you really can’t believe Iowa polls....and they are a different breed of people there, it depends on how close they are to payday, how the weather is, they are very moody people...nothing against them personally, just noticed that thru my travels....
3 things stood out.....
Who has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton
11 26 20 30 14
Carson Cruz Rubio Trump Notsure
(1) The candidates are listed in ALPHABETICAL order for
who is your number 1 and number 2 choice.
(2) Cruz is near top. Trump is near bottom.
That helps Cruz because once choice is made,
rarely the voter will change it.
(3) How did they pick likely voters? Trump’s ground game has signed up yuge number of first time caucus goers. The poll obviously has no access to that list. So the poll of only 400 likely voters is a pathetically small sample.
Cruz has exactly 3 friends in senate who back his bills.
He is the least popular senator! Not only that, Cruz is actually despised by majority of republican senators. It is laughable to assume Cruz would get best cooperation from congress.
Craig Robinsob was the republican Political Director in Iowa in 2007.
Check his tweets:
Iowa Republican Craig Robinson â€@IowaGOPer 2h2 hours ago
The campaign that should be nervous about the latest Iowa Poll is Cruz. That # is unrealistic, much like it was for Carson.
Craig Robinson â€@IowaGOPer 2h2 hours ago
I’ll be really honest, those Iowa Poll numbers wouldn’t bother me at all if I was @realDonaldTrump He’s solid.
Much like movie critics, useless
I like both Cruz and Trump, but more than 400 people could be polled at a mall on Saturday. This sample size is way too small to mean much.
I like both Cruz and Trump, but more than 400 people could be polled at a mall on Saturday. This sample size is way too small to mean much.
I just heard on Fox News, that even senator Cruz does not take this poll seriously!
Between the two, I prefer the guy who wasn't a Hillary-supporting democrat a few years ago.
Don’t tell the TDS’ers. They might cry.
Check post 6.
That is what the internals of this poll say.
It is obvious the people polled have to familiarity with congress. Cruz has exactly 3 friends in senate who regularly back his bills, out of 100. He is the least popular senator! Not only that, Cruz is actually despised by majority of republican senators. It is laughable to assume Cruz would get best cooperation from congress.
Actually, Santorum is the most popular senator running in 2016. He would get the best cooperation in congress. But I am not supporting Santorum in 2016.
Trump just needs to stay calm and not overreact to this. I believe Cruz has a surge, I don’t believe he is up 10, and I do believe its a push poll. One thing I noticed was that there were 2 descriptions for Carson, Trump and Fiorina. Trump was “New York businessman” and “Businessman and TV personailty”. These are both intended to give Iowans a negative impression of Trump as a New Yorker and a TV personaility. Trump needs to stay on message about immigration, fixing the economy and most importantly that he is self funding and can’t be bought. Aside from everything else Trump has brought to the game I’ve always felt that being self funded is the ticket this year. Nome of the rest can say that and aside from Carson, they are all politicians.
Gotta quote your hero:
“You guys are losers”. Now remember, I am quoting your hero, no need to respond.
Didn’t something similar happen using Dr Ben a month or so ago?
In Iowa? Are you nuts? This would be like sampling 10,000 in a national poll. Which by the way is never done.
You forgot to total the poll numbers, I’ve saved you the trouble:
Cruz 31%
Trump 21%
That can be seen at a glance.
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