3 things stood out.....
Who has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton
11 26 20 30 14
Carson Cruz Rubio Trump Notsure
(1) The candidates are listed in ALPHABETICAL order for
who is your number 1 and number 2 choice.
(2) Cruz is near top. Trump is near bottom.
That helps Cruz because once choice is made,
rarely the voter will change it.
(3) How did they pick likely voters? Trump’s ground game has signed up yuge number of first time caucus goers. The poll obviously has no access to that list. So the poll of only 400 likely voters is a pathetically small sample.
Craig Robinsob was the republican Political Director in Iowa in 2007.
Check his tweets:
Iowa Republican Craig Robinson â€@IowaGOPer 2h2 hours ago
The campaign that should be nervous about the latest Iowa Poll is Cruz. That # is unrealistic, much like it was for Carson.
Craig Robinson â€@IowaGOPer 2h2 hours ago
I’ll be really honest, those Iowa Poll numbers wouldn’t bother me at all if I was @realDonaldTrump He’s solid.
Right. I read an article on the pollster they use earlier today and she said she relies heavily on known caucus goers.
“The candidates are listed in ALPHABETICAL order..”
I don’t know about this poll, but generally in poll taking where you are giving a list the questioner rotates the names, because yes there is a tendency to pick the earlier named person.
There is also a real bias in the world toward the right hand. At work we have garbage can that pull out from the cabinet. The one on the right hand side can be full to overflowing almost and the one on the left will be nearly empty. So, I always use the left one.