Posted on 12/02/2015 9:13:56 AM PST by Michael van der Galien
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio continue to surge in the polls. According to the latest national poll from Quinnipiac, Cruz has surged to third place with 16%. That's the highest score ever for the Republican senator from Texas.
Rubio too is doing better than ever before: he's now in second place with 17%. This means that Cruz and Rubio are effectively tied and both gunning for the important 20% threshold.
Ben Carson also polls 16%. This means he's tied with Cruz and virtually tied with Rubio. The difference, though, is that this is absolutely bad news for the retired neurosurgeon. Not too long ago, Carson was tied with Donald Trump for first place. While Rubio and Cruz are on their way up, the good doctor is now on his way down. The longer this downfall continues, the more likely it becomes that he may drop out before the Iowa caucuses even take place.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to lead the field nationally. He is supported by 27% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Although that's certainly good news for the billionaire businessman, he too has reason to worry about the rise of Cruz and Rubio:
POLL RESULTS
The main problem for Trump is that Cruz is surging among Tea Party voters, "very conservative" voters, and evangelicals. These are exactly the kind of voters a candidate needs to win in Iowa. Trump is still doing relatively well among these members of the conservative base, but his numbers aren't improving, whereas Cruz's are.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Senior Amnesty has a scarlet “A” on his family that will keep him from ever winning the Republican nomination. He had little chance to begin with but after Paris he has no chnace - no chance at all.
Well Jeb is gearing up for NH but you are right he will be out soon. NH is his last stand and he is going to lose big to Trump. Jeb has no chance to win Iowa. That is likely Trump or Cruz. My money still on Trump though.
Rubio’s numbers come from his ability to speak very well... he doesn’t stutter... he talks fast and says what they want to hear. But he’s more the GOP than he seems. His voting is along with the GOP. His was the deciding vote on the trade deal and he reaped $3.9 mil for that vote. He’s too close to letting the illegals live here and give them what they want. I don’t trust Rubio on ever getting the illegals sent packing. I don’t trust Rubio to NOT cross the aisle. I don’t trust Rubio to defy congress, and do for the people.
Trump’s numbers come from the fact he is not the GOP and he has the fight in the belly that gives us hope. He doesn’t talk like Rubio.. if he did, his numbers would be twice what they are. I do believe Trump will get the illegals packing .. Trump will see that our veterans are taken care of. Trump’s deal making impresses me. Trump has the sense to appoint those who will help him make the decisions that will make our country great again. I don’t think Trump will buckle to the media, nor to congress.
And Trump’s attitude is to WIN.
Cruz is my second choice after Trump... Cruz has proven he will fight congress and the media.. he’s good to go!
Thinking of putting up a Pataki sign in front of my house - just for the laughs.
How on earth can any sane person believe that these Quinnipiac results are reliable? The same national poll that you cite also shows that Bernie Sanders would beat Donald Trump by 49 to 41.
JFK deja vu
1984 - Reagan was the incumbent with no serious challengers
1988 - While Bush was the handpicked choice of outgoing Ronald Reagan, it was not a smooth ride for Bush. He came in third in Iowa and Bob Dole led in the polls for a while. However, by Super Tuesday, Bush locked up the nomination and never looked back, having secured establishment money and backing.
1992 - Bush was the incumbent with no serious challengers and establishment money and backing.
1996 - Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes traded leads for a while until "It's my turn" Bob Dole took command of the race with the establishment money and backing.
2000 - John McCain and Steve Forbes traded early leads until GWB got the establishment money and backing. I think McCain blew out GWB by 20 points in the NH primary.
2004 - GWB was the incumbent and had establishment money and backing.
2008 - Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani traded leads until John McCain, with establishment money and backing, took control of the race.
2012 - A free for all with Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachman and Rick Perry trading leads until Mitt Romney, with establishment money and backing, took control of the race. This was the first time in GOP history three different Republicans won early contests (Santorum in Iowa, Gingrich in SC and Romney in NH).
2016 - Jeb Bush, with establishment money and backing, has so far failed to take control of the race due to insurgent self-funding Donald Trump. In fact, Trump has led the race virtually from the day he entered it. Will history repeat itself with establishment backing and money ultimately winning the day? We shall see.
Trump should worry about Cruz pulling a McCain on him. Apparently Cruz said this week he does not believe Trump will win the primary. I think he's right. Trump's a very Giuliani-style candidate...a tough-talking northeasterner who just isn't acceptable to social conservatives. Unlike Romney, Trump doesn't have the built-in base of Mormons to give him a solid base of support.
Bush did get a notable challenge from Buchanan in 1992. Bush only got 72% of the primary vote vs. Reagan’s 98% in 1984 and Bush’s 98% in 2004.
Put up a Jim Gilmore sign. People won’t find that funny. They’ll be scared to come anywhere near your house.
Flies are attracted to dung heaps.
Am I being harsh? No we need more talk like this.
Did you hear her last week speaking out against sexual abuse?
Do you remember how she demonized Jennifer Flowers and Anita Broderick?
That ALONE should make her unqualified never mind the death of 4 fellow Americans. Never mind the emails.
No doubt, Cruz will do well in Iowa, however, aside from their home location, Trump is no Giuliani. One picture took Giuliani down, much more has been thrown at Trump and he deflects it and continues to rise. This is also not 2008 and we’ve had 7+ years of a radical transformation with a complicit Republican party that has alienated it’s base.
Great reply...I do remember, now, those early races. Thank you.
According to this, Giuliani was on top for all of 2007 until McCain finally topped him at the end of 2007.
Trump should worry about Cruz pulling a McCain on him. Apparently Cruz said this week he does not believe Trump will win the primary. I think he’s right. Trump’s a very Giuliani-style candidate...a tough-talking northeasterner who just isn’t acceptable to social conservatives. Unlike Romney, Trump doesn’t have the built-in base of Mormons to give him a solid base of support.
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You’re wrong if you think Trump’s supporters will dump him and go to Cruz. This is different time. Trump is seen as the strongest on national security, immigration, and the fact he is an outsider...that’s a solid base of support...wouldn’t you say?
2. Do you remember how she demonized Jennifer Flowers and Anita Broderick?
No, but that does STINK.
3. That ALONE should make her unqualified never mind the death of 4 fellow Americans. Never mind the emails.
True enough.
75...You can see that in pundits faces, "If you only knew what I knew about that guy, AND CAN'T TELL YOU ABOUT EVEN THOUGH IT IS MY JOB TO DO JUST THAT, you would never elect him."
And the opposite here?
If they had the goods on him, they'd have used it by now.
You've got a contradiction there.
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