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Are the polls overstating Trump's support?
The Washington Examiner ^ | 12/1/2015 | David M. Drucker

Posted on 12/01/2015 12:51:28 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Donald Trump's lead in public opinion polling could have a soft underbelly, leaving him more vulnerable than the numbers might suggest.

The New York real estate mogul and reality television star paces the field of Republican presidential candidates nationally, garnering an average of 35.1 in the Huffington Post polling tracker. Rounding out the top four candidates are retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, with 13.9 percent and Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, with 12.6 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively.

But use the site's custom filter to remove surveys conducted via the Internet, Interactive Voice Response, a combination of IVR and online and through automated telephone interviews, and the data looks significantly different. Using only polls conducted via interviews with live telephone operators, Trump's still commanding position in the national GOP average drops to 27.2 percent; Carson's number rises to 20.2 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; demagogicparty; election2016; elections; mediabias; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; tedcruz; texas; trump; trumpwasright; understatingsupport
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No, the polls are a sham and they are no doubt UNDERSTATING Trump's support. Dishonest MSM trying to deceitfully push Trump from center stage - number one - at the next debate!

Go Trump!

1 posted on 12/01/2015 12:51:28 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Possibly a bit. Perhaps not. The accuracy of any poll depends upon the sample. Who know how well the sample reflects who the actual voters will be?


2 posted on 12/01/2015 12:53:00 PM PST by TBP (Nous sommes tout Francais.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

If anything they are understating his support. Look at the massive turnouts at his rallys.


3 posted on 12/01/2015 12:53:05 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Try understating.


4 posted on 12/01/2015 12:54:22 PM PST by pgkdan (But as for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

If the polls were indeed overstating Trump’s support, the GOP-e wouldn’t be in such a panic.


5 posted on 12/01/2015 12:54:24 PM PST by Arm_Bears (Biology is biology. Everything else is imagination.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain
Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.

Marketing 101, nothing whatsoever to do with journalism.

6 posted on 12/01/2015 12:54:25 PM PST by Eddie01
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To: Parley Baer

“If anything they are understating his support. Look at the massive turnouts at his rallys.”<—————what he/she said.


7 posted on 12/01/2015 12:54:53 PM PST by moehoward
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To: Arm_Bears

Good point!


8 posted on 12/01/2015 12:55:54 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: Arm_Bears

“If the polls were indeed overstating Trump’s support, the GOP-e wouldn’t be in such a panic.”

Kasich calling a fellow candidate a Nazi. How sad. Kasich used to me someone I looked up to. Now, just another pathetic establishment hit man.


9 posted on 12/01/2015 12:56:17 PM PST by Eddie01
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Comment #10 Removed by Moderator

To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Gee, David. I wonder what your opinion is... (NOT)


11 posted on 12/01/2015 12:58:17 PM PST by AdaGray
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain
They are still trying to prop up Carson - who is dropping like a rock.

I really don't have faith in any of the polls. But the fact that Trump is filling stadiums and arenas across the country for his rallies - with people standing outside because they can't get in - speaks volumes.

Is there any other political candidate out there that can fill a stadium for a rally? Most of them couldn't fill a conference room at the Hampton Inn.

12 posted on 12/01/2015 12:59:23 PM PST by SamAdams76 (It's time we sent a junkyard dog to Washington to run the low life out)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain; All

Trump is the one drawing the large crowds.


13 posted on 12/01/2015 1:01:01 PM PST by Amendment10
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To: SamAdams76

But the fact that Trump is filling stadiums and arenas across the country for his rallies - with people standing outside because they can’t get in - speaks volumes.....

Amen

Not just once like Bernie but repeatedly.


14 posted on 12/01/2015 1:01:35 PM PST by Hang'emAll (If guns kill people, do pencils misspell words?)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

The purpose of polls is to shape public opinion.


15 posted on 12/01/2015 1:01:57 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Little children have imaginary friends. Modern liberalism has imaginary enemies.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Another suspect anti-Trump article out of the Washington Examiner. I am seeing a pattern here.


16 posted on 12/01/2015 1:03:26 PM PST by SteveSCH (Migrants are Barbarians at our gates!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Betting against polls for us burned in 2012.

There are screwy ones that definitely make no logical sense, but by and large they are what they are.


17 posted on 12/01/2015 1:04:01 PM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Oohhhh yes... Trump is really not popular at all.

I bet you democrats are really going to win big! that’s for sure...

We’re sure scared


18 posted on 12/01/2015 1:04:18 PM PST by Mr. K (If it is HilLIARy -vs- Jeb! then I am writing-in Palin/Cruz)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

The only polls that are verifiable are the ones held right before an election.


19 posted on 12/01/2015 1:04:30 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain
Trump can't be leading. He says all the poltically incorrect things. And he doesn't apologize or back down. Even when 100% of the un-American liberal and amnesty pimping GOPe MEDIA proves him wrong.
20 posted on 12/01/2015 1:10:07 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to to God!)
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