Posted on 07/14/2015 5:11:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
"My sole focus is to run as a Republican," Donald Trump told my Washington Examiner colleague Byron York last week, "because of the fact that I believe that this is the best way we can defeat the Democrats." He went on, "Having a two-party race gives us a much better chance of beating Hillary and bringing our country back than having a third-party candidate."
But when York asked if he would definitively rule out running as a third-party candidate, Trump said, "It's not something I'm thinking about right now." And as John Fund pointed out in National Review, it is something Trump has thought about in the past.
He made a feint at getting Ross Perot's Reform Party nomination back in 1999. And while Trump recently called Clinton "the worst secretary of state in the history of our nation," somehow overlooking James Buchanan's feckless stint in the Polk administration, he also contributed to her Senate campaigns and has called her "a terrific woman."
The fact is that Trump, as a national celebrity and a non-politician often at odds with both parties, has the capacity to launch an independent candidacy scoring double digits in polls, just as Perot did in 1992 and Colin Powell could have done in 1995.
That should scare not only Republicans but also Democrats. History tells us that third-party candidacies have reshuffled the political desk and disrupted seemingly stable political alignments in unanticipated ways.
Consider the Populist movement of the 1890s that came during a 25-year period when partisan competition was as close as today and divided government as much the norm, though with Republicans usually holding the presidency and Democrats usually with congressional majorities.
The Populists supported inflationary silver currency and aid to farmers, and the 1892 Populist nominee carried most electoral votes in the plains and mountain states (all admitted to the Union by Republicans).
In 1896 Democrats nominated the pro-silver, pro-farmer William Jennings Bryan, but in reaction the Northeast and industrial Midwest swung to the pro-gold standard Republican William McKinley. Republicans won seven of the nine next presidential elections.
Half a century later, in 1948, Strom Thurmond's States' Rights Democratic candidacy destabilized the national Democratic Party's majority coalition. Thurmond's 39 electoral votes didn't defeat Harry Truman, but Thurmond helped to detach the South from its traditional Democratic allegiance. Democratic nominees carried all the Confederate states 17 times before 1948. None ever has again.
George Wallace's third-party candidacy in 1968 advanced that process at the presidential level. But his 1964, 1972 and 1976 campaigns in the Democratic primaries provided a template for conservative Democrats to win congressional and state races in places that tilted Republican presidentially. That delayed Republicans' capture of majorities in the U.S. House until 1994.
Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992 came after Republicans won five of the six previous presidential elections, and after 1988 George Bush carried 40 states in 1988. But Perot's spring campaign "de-partisanized the critique of Bush," as deputy Democratic chairman Paul Tully told me at the time, in a way no Democrat, certainly not a little-known young governor of Arkansas, could have done.
But when Perot abruptly withdrew from the race, on the Wednesday of the Democratic National Convention, Bill Clinton's standing in the polls rose 25 points in one day -- surely a record that will never be beaten. Democrats won four of the next six presidential elections.
But their leftish policies, in Clinton's first two years and Barack Obama's two terms, have helped produce Republican majorities in nine of the next House elections and have resulted in the polarization of the electorate that so many pundits lament -- and which is the last thing Perot promised.
What could be the consequences of a third-party Trump candidacy? Immediate speculation is that it would cost Republicans the votes of many conservatives disgruntled with the party's officeholders and angry about immigration, trade and Common Core. That's certainly plausible.
But Trump might also siphon votes of non-college whites from Democrats in states where their support was high enough to produce Obama victories. Examples include Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. All voted 54 percent or less for Obama in 2012, and altogether they have 84 electoral votes.
The present close partisan balance and polarization will not last forever. And Donald Trump seems like just the kind of guy who could disrupt it -- in ways no one now can anticipate.
Perot part 2 is unacceptable. Anyone who tries it for any reason is dead to me.
I don't think being the "me too" candidate is going to cut it. Cruz declared first and had the opportunity to take on illegal immigration first. He didn't. Neither did Rand Paul and every other candidate out there. Only Trump took on the issue on the day he declared. It's nice that Cruz is defending Trump, he gets a big plus for that. But we are electing a leader not a defense attorney. Trump is displaying leadership, Cruz (Paul) not so much.
“Trump has a lot of negatives that haven’t been focused on yet. But he deserves tremendous credit for his immigration stance.” (Illegal immigration stance btw).
I agree with your comments. Trump addressed some of them the other day in his rambling speech. First off he noted he has given to both parties and tempered that with he knows how the system works and he has to work within it as a businessman. Pragmatic sure, smart to say it....no. He said this which tweaked my ears: “conservatives will have to get over it and admit we deserve to ensure the least of us have health care” but he wants Ocare removed. He is openly saying he is not a conservative. He also said that Santorem is a good guy, which I thought was interesting as he blasted the Jebber.
On balance, I could vote for Trump but I sincerely hope he is not the candidate either of the GOP or a third party. In either situation, I think we lose, bigger if he runs third party.
Regarding the 15 candidate field, nice to have a great bench, problem is, who is going to be the clean up hitter in that batting order??
Donald John Trump
June 14, 1946 (age 69)
Queens, New York, US
Residence
Trump Tower
Manhattan, New York, US
Mar-A-Lago
Palm Beach, Florida, US
Alma mater Fordham University (transferred)
University of Pennsylvania
Occupation • Chairman and president of The Trump Organization
• Chairman of Trump Plaza Associates, LLC
• Chairman of Trump Atlantic City Associates
• Host of The Apprentice (formerly)
Years active 1968–present
Salary $60 million
Net worth Increase US$4.1 billion (July 2015)
Political party Republican (Before 1999; 2009–11; 2012–present)
Reform Party (1999–2001)
Democratic (2001–09)
Independent (2011–12)
Religion Presbyterianism
Spouse(s) Ivana Zelnícková (1977–92)
Marla Maples (1993–99)
Melania Knauss (2005–present)
Children
Donald
Ivanka
Eric
Tiffany
Barron
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
Trump leads in new poll http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-leads-poll-making-gop-101500112.html
Dear Mr. Trump:
I think I speak for many conservatives when I say that I’m not surprised by your current popularity. You bring clarity to a season of politicians skirting the real issues that are organized nicely in your book, Making America Number One Again. You have my vote if you commit to the outcome of the GOP primaries. If you win, we will back you. If you lose, you back the winner.
The idea that you are contemplating a third party run, the way Ross Perot did bothers me. It makes me skeptical of your agenda and your loyalties. Would you actually do that, knowing that it would elect someone like Hillary Clinton or worse? Why would you even think of doing that?
Sincerely,
A concerned American
If you like what Trump is saying, then vote for Ted Cruz, who actually means what he says.
***
Good point. But I sure wish Cruz would get out there and grab some camera time from the loudmouth.
If he does, then it’ll prove he’s a distracter for the RATS. It’ll split the GOP vote causing them to lose, again.
What difference does it make. I know I voted for him. Don’t tell me otherwise
Did you forget that President Bush was forced by the rats to renege on his promise not to raise taxes? I did not. It's a shame that you bought the lies of the lame stream media
Yes he does
That is what I am afraid of
To: Mariner
Is Donald Trump the Ross Perot of 2016?
82 posted on 07/06/2015 4:28:06 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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If the GOPe p*sses him off, I believe it will happen.
Two upsides IMHO.
1) Jeb Bush finishes a distant third, and the GOP really does go the way of the Whigs.
2) The Chamber of Commerce gets to spend four years living under a radical Democrat administration and will be forced to come crawling begging our forgiveness if they ever wish to escape it.
My first comment about Trump when he entered the race was that he’d eventually be running as a 3rd party candidate so as to guarantee Hillary’s election. I’m still thinking the same way. His campaign has so far been beneficial to the nation as he’s forced the debate about illegals out of the box the ruling parties are trying to maintain around it. However, I wouldn’t support him as a candidate, even if he does stay in as a republican.
With Hillary’s plummeting poll numbers, the GOPe has to find a new boogie man to scare the base back on to the plantation.
If... the gope pulls another Mississippi primary scheme, and uses lies, and deception to get a candidate on the ballot, will you vote for them?
W taught me to never vote for RINOs.
XII Amendment:
The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; — The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted; — The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.
— The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
If Trump doesn’t win the GOP nomination we all get President Hillary Clinton.
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