Posted on 01/25/2015 10:11:11 AM PST by expat_panama
Considering the top headlines were about soft footballs this has to have been an easy no-brainer week for investments. Maybe; here's what he experts are telling us:
[excerpt from Investors Business Daily At Davos, Hypocrites Tell Rest Of Us To Lower Expectations] Former Vice President Al Gore listens to singer Pharrell Williams... ...talking, of course, about the annual confab at Davos, Switzerland, ... [snip] [snip]
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[excerpt from Daily Finance Market Wrap: Stocks Fall on Miners, UPS; Indexes Up for Week] NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks fell modestly Friday, pressured by underwhelming corporate news including guidance from economic activity bellwether UPS and as materials stocks fell after bearish notes. [snip] |
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[excerpt from T.RowePrice Weekly Market Wrap-Ups ]
...ECB's QE plans drive shift in sentiment...
Even as earnings reporting season was in full swing, investor sentiment appeared to be driven in large part by macroeconomic concerns, and not even domestic ones. Reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) might announce a large quantitative easing (QE) programbuying long-term bonds in order to lower borrowing costs and spur growth and inflationseemed to foster improved sentiment early in the week. U.S. and other global markets rallied on Thursday, when the ECB announced a program that was in fact much larger than what many investors had anticipated. T. Rowe Price's London-based sovereign credit analysts note that while the size of the program is roughly in line with the Fed's recent QE efforts, it should have a larger effect on the European bond market given the smaller amount of bonds available. ...but also drives up dollar, threatening overseas profits for U.S. multinationals T. Rowe Price analysts also expect the program to have a significant effect on the value of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar. Indeed, following the announcement, the dollar reached its highest level against a basket of other currencies since late 2003. While the strong dollar has some positive effects for the U.S. economy, it also threatens the profits of U.S. businesses earning revenues overseas. Earnings down for financial sector, but individual opportunities remain Threats to overseas revenues and declining oil prices have already weighed considerably on earnings expectations. Analytical and database firm FactSet now estimates that overall earnings for the S&P 500 will grow by only 0.25% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Profit expectations have declined significantly for financials firms, along with energy companies. Some better-than-expected bank earnings reported Thursday helped fuel the market's rally, however. [snip] |
I agree. Of course, this leaves cutting cutting taxes as the only way left to improve the economy, and God knows the administration would never resort to that.
I am waiting to hear Liberals demand Apple pay it’s fair share, that like Big Oil, their profits are simply too much.
The biggest way to improve the economy left is to pull back on the stifling regulation as well as clarify the legal playing field. Neither of which this administration is going to do.
Cutting the corporate tax will help (along with allowing repatriation of cash tax free). Cutting the personal income tax rate, particularly in the upper income levels, is worthless.
And lay off all those Deadheads that have a liplock on the government tit? Not on your life!!!
True...
And still, in spite of all of this, the US economy is the best in the world. Sure, a low bar, but still the standard.
Speaks to the creativity, drive, enterprise, and indomitable will that the concept of Free Enterprise sparks in the human heart. We’ve been through worse than what this Marxist bastard now in the White House has dished out, and still survived.
We’ll survive this, too!
Also it would only strengthen the dollar further against the Euro and Yen and we are already up big time over the past year. So in a race to the bottom, we'd be going the wrong way by raising rates.
I'm gonna get my 3.5% 30 year mortgage yet.
Yes!
Also it would only strengthen the dollar further against the Euro and Yen
Maybe I'm missing something but when I look at the dollar along w/ the fed rate I don't see a link.
Sometimes it's worked together that way, but right now the dollar's the strongest its been in ten years and the fed rate's the lowest.
Everything is relative.
Right now our 10 year bond is 1.70 or so.
Germany, Japan, and France are at or around 0.5
So our interest rates are still a good bit higher than our competitors.
Of course everyone’s is artificially low as the main market for all this debt is their own central banks
That's the impression a lot of people have been getting lately, but no matter how big governments may want appear, they're just bit players compared to free people like you and I. Right now the Fed's holding about $4.5T in debt and that's less than 8% the total U.S. debt market's $58.0T (page nine from here).
For a minute I thought today was Friday and I was concerned about losing the whole week; I'm not a guy for saying "TGIF". Instead I find we still got another day in the week and we can be Sure Happy It's Thursday!
Like, futures got metals off -1.39% but that's down from last week's high. Stock indexes look good +0.31% after yesterday's solid distribution having IBD now calling the outlook "market under pressure". Reports now coming at us:
Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
Pending Home Sales
Natural Gas Inventories
Everybody seems awful quiet out there today.
Trading’s been indecisive. Waiting for tomorrow’s GDP? Can’t imagine why.
It seems horribly contrived, but the DJIA started out as a simple average of the prices and they had to fudge when some of the stocks split various ways. Good thing we got indexes to turn too...
Maybe but GDP is the last thing you see in the rear view mirror...
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/downloads/fact_info/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Stated Objective
To represent large and well-known U.S. companies. Covers all industries with the exception of Transportation and Utilities.
Key Features
The index is maintained by the Averages Committee.
Components are added and deleted on an as-needed basis. For the sake of continuity, such changes are rare, and typically occur following corporate acquisitions or other significant changes in a component company’s core business. When one component is replaced, all of them are reviewed.
While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. Maintaining adequate sector representation within the index is also a consideration in the selection process.
The index is price weighted.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first calculated on May 26, 1896.
I wish I would have put a bunch in Alcoa when it fell out of their objective. ;^)
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