Posted on 01/17/2015 4:18:13 AM PST by Din Maker
In the 2016 cycle, Democrats are defending only 10 seats while Republicans have two dozen of their own seats to hold. 7 of those 24 Republican seats are in states that President Obama won twice: Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
To win the majority back, Democrats need to win five of those seven seats in November 2016. (If a Democrat, wins the White House in 2016, then Senate Democrats need to win only four of those seven. That's the exact path Republicans took to the Senate majority in 2014 when, needing a six-seat gain, they won all six of the states Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia that Mitt Romney carried in 2012 and were represented by Democrats. (Republicans also won two states Iowa and Colorado that Obama carried twice and one, North Carolina, that Obama won in 2008 and Romney won in 2012.)
And, while the map looks great for Democrats on paper, several of those seven races look less rosy in reality. Iowa is a very tough Democratic pickup unless Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) decides to retire, which he insists he isn't going to do. Ohio Sen. Rob Portman is a gifted politician and fundraiser while the Democratic bench in the state is decidedly thin. The Democratic fields in New Hampshire, Florida and Illinois are still quite muddled. And neither Sens. Pat Toomey (Pa.) nor Ron Johnson (Wis.) are political dead men walking. Not yet, at least.
There are also two genuinely vulnerable Democrats Sens. Harry Reid (Nev.) and Michael Bennet (Colo.) on the ballot in 2016.
Below are the 10 most competitive Senate contests on the ballot in 2016. The number-one-ranked race is the most likely to switch parties in 2016.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
The best chance for the Democrats to win back the Senate and possibly the House is for the Republicans to continue acting like Democrats.
Works every time.
Oh there is a MUCH simpler way for the Democrats to re-gain the Senate and maybe even the House; just let Tokyo Rove get the nomination for Jeb Bush and 15 to 20 percent of the Republican rank and file will stay home. Simple aint it?
Let Boehner be Boehner. They can watch him entrench obama's destruction of the Constitution AND recover the Senate AND continue the federal government's war against American citizens.
Sounds like a win-win-win.
There will be A LOT more democrats spots open than they are thinking. A LOT of Democrats will announcce that they will retire between now and then.
No one like being in the minority.
Not necessarily true. The Republican Party loves being the minority party.
Schumer recently tripped lightly down memory lane in his ankle-tied pink Capezios, tsk-tsk'ing about Dumbos passing the atrocity known as Obamacare.
Get ready for Schumer sing-song'ing about the amnesty atrocity.....to the tune of " Here Comes That Rainy Day Feeling Again."
And ever since November, they're doing a bang-up job of it.
Promise the lazy freeloaders more free stuff if they vote for you. It’s not rocket science.
There are plenty of folks who could beat Alison Lundergan Grimes. We've got a lot more of a bench than we used to have here, and we should have a good election this year (our statewide offices are all up). I hope there is a real effort to remove her from her current office, which I think is also very doable.
For example?
Bad Democrats are bad Democrats. Generalization is a powerful force, especially when it will be reinforced by the R’s
Run AG Adam Laxalt for governor. Sandoval may also be a '16 VP possibility as is Gov. Martinez.
That makes him the best democrats have... Is that scary or what, Liz?
Oh wait - they've got flighty brain addled Nancy Pelosi...
He knows when to go for the jugular and when to let go. I recall him being on a news program when Bush v Gore was announced... and he said, "You know, from my reading, this is over. Time to move on." or words to that effect.
When it's time to go for the jugular... he is RUTHLESS. Our side could use someone with his qualities. Our last best "enforcer" was Tom Delay.
The black Obama voter base has already demonstrated its unreliability in getting to the polls if he's not on the ballot.
They're not going to turn out for Warren in numbers like they did for Obama. Democrats aren't stupid. They know this.
I agree with other posters here. Obamacare will deep-six the Dems beyond anything they expected or imagined.
I have no use for the fraud Ayotte in NH, but she is not going to lose that seat.
I am not sure that is a true statement.
Hilleary was Obamas Secretary of State. She oversaw a disastrous foreign policy. She did a lot of nothing and what was done under her tenure was a failure. The country and the world is in far more danger than before Obama. Either Obama wanted it that way and she stayed the course, did not resign and did not speak out against those policies or she agreed with him. Any way you look at it, she was a failure.
Any Democrat in congress who runs has a record of voting Obamas way. Failure. Few spoke out against any Obama policy and when they did it was a weak decent. The vast majority vigorously defended Obama at every turn.
The public record condemns every Democrat as an Obama yes man. They can run away from Obama but he is a tar baby that will stick to them where ever they go.
But whoever is nominated will be white washed by the press so it will be a race that the Republicans will have to work hard to win.
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