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Posted on 12/28/2014 8:22:56 AM PST by expat_panama
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Weird, all our doom'n'gloomers have disappeared! Usually the pundits are warning about the big upcoming market crash but look at what the latest "expert" predictions are for 2015 stock market returns:
Outlook 2015: Year Ahead Reports & Analysis Our 2015 year-end target for the S&P 500 is 2200, putting returns on a more-normal pace of 6%.
Barron's Cover Outlook 2015: Stick With the Bull Wall Street’s top strategists expect the S&P 500 to rally 10%
Markets Wall Street bull: Market will rise another 14% in 2015
Add to this the fact that we're still overdue for our longer term growth cycle points to even more optimism.
Of course there's always the contrarian approach that says upbeat sentiment is a negative sign, so let's be fair to our cautious side and post these stock warnings;
----Don't Hold Your Breath for a 90s-Style Boom
----Seven Shocks for the Markets in 2015
----What the Fed Will Decide About Rates In 2015
Continuing that line we got more boosters who are into precious metal hedges --3 Reasons to buy gold FM trader Brian Kelly outlines reasons to buy gold going into 2015. Tim Seymour disagrees with the commodity's bull case. CNBC Videos. That plus the possibility that the lackluster 2014 was just basing for the next uptrend. This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our-- Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.
Yeah why? Bad enough having a crash but to have to put up with it on a Sunday?
The stock market is going to take a turn one day, there may be a short window of opportunity left so if I do get back in it may be only for a short time and that time needs to count.
Down here where I live in GA the local big name stocks are UPS, Coke, AFLAC, Rubbermaid, Home Depot but don't want to do the buy and hold.
The banks haven't paid any interest to speak of in years, the only way to make money outside of the stock market these days is through Reward Points on credit cards.
Would be nice, but I’d bet ya $100 the Dow will not close 2015 over 22k.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-refiners-boom-amid-oil-220001336.html
India Refiners Boom Amid Oil Bust as Investors Eye Risks
There may in fact be someone to take that bet, although it would be easier to buy some kind of option for the Dow doing something and what you're saying is you'd be willing to buy some kind of option/derivative that the Dow won't do something --exceed 22,000. SAJ, is there such an animal?
fwiw, 22,500 would be only a 25% jump, and there've been much bigger moves over the past decade or two --moves that imho are long over due.
It was 20% up in “13”
Predictions, AKA wild ass guess. I haven’t a clue. Bluestocking quoted JP Morgan “‘’It will fluctuate.’’ “. I like that so I’ll stick with that. I don’t see anything right now that makes me think the overall uptrend is over though.
Of course if it were that simple we could all become hippies and not worry about anything.
What we do is we predict the sun will come up and we predict that if we put in a good day's work we eat better than if we don't. Predicting the Dow at 36,000 in 2025 is a very safe bet because the big industrials have been doubling every decade for over two centuries. There are some other very safe bets for the shorter term but we can't know everything. If we knew everything life wouldn't be nearly as much fun.
---and wild asses can be a lot of fun...
Happy Monday morning and another short week! This ones supposedly four days but considering the major econ reports are totally done now for 2014, and we only get two on Friday, I'm expecting trade to be slooooooow....
Rapid price swings can still happen though, right now futures are +0.16% stock indexes and -0.27% metals. My thinking is that if a third trader shows up on the floor that prices could swing the other way.
Exactly, and there's no rule that we can't have a ten-fold surge over 15-years--
--of course that's only a 15%/year increase but you know what I mean.
I agree that the long term outlook is always up. There is no reason to believe the Dow will never be as high as it is now. We have ups and downs along the way. I’d be good with 20% this year. But I’m expecting about 6. ;)
It’s games like that which give me hope in the next generation. You can’t do all that “merit” and free trade without some of it rubbing off on your worldview.
5% is probably a pretty decent pick. I think oil induced geopolitical events will make things dicey during the year. Players like Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and others aren’t going to idly sit while they go bankrupt. In fact I will go with about an 18K for the DOW come 12/31/2015, with a caveat of a 10 -20% decrease if we see major currency disruptions
That is my prediction as well--date included. Although I'm not sure the damage will be limited to the stock market.
...my prediction as well--date included...
Wait a sec., y'all know that Sept. 13, 2015 falls on a Sunday?
They’re just games, but it seems the closer they resemble real life the more fun and popular they become. Eve is from Iceland and has more of an anti-business/euro-socialist slant, but Elite-dangerous is from the UK and my bet a lot of the content comes from folks that voted for Thatcher.
Won’t matter. Monday’s open will be horrendous—if there is an open at all.
hmmm, right now stock futures are falling. 2015 may end up rising from a much lower 2014-end than we thought...
Could be. That one-day 20% drop in '87 happened on a Monday that many said was a weekend process.
yup—and that Monday drop in ‘87 is related to what is gonna happen this coming Sept.
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