Posted on 12/25/2014 6:38:57 AM PST by upchuck
On December 23, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Commerce Department issued its latest revision of U.S. economic growth for the third quarter period (July through September). According to the BEA, the U.S. economy grew at a 5.0% annual rate during that quarter.
Unfortunately, the once honorable Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Census Bureau tweaked the quarterly GDP numbers in order to achieve the 5% growth rate. This tweaking was predicted by Tyler Durden of zerohedge.com.
When Durden analyzed the final revision for the first quarter back on June 25 (Here's the reason for the total collapse in Q1 GDP), he discovered that Obamacare payments had been removed by the BEA from the already dismal results for the first quarter. He predicted that they would be added to later quarters in order to achieve 5% growth during a quarter. Specifically, he wrote:
And now, we all await as the US department of truth says, with a straight face, that in Q2 the US GDP "grew" by over 5% (no really: you'll see).
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Bump
the good news, if you can call it that, is that even though some people like us here are aware of these numbers, the vast majority of americans are just about like what jonathan gruber says and have no clue about gdp or anything else that doesn’t have to do with dancing with the stars or kim kardashian. so, Obama can do all the manipulating he wants, but he’s wasting his time with most americans.
If wishes were horses ....beggars would ride
But I never saw any teenager dressed like that.
“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grammes a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grammes a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”
(1984)
Back in June, when we were looking at the final Q1 GDP print, we discovered something very surprising: after the BEA had first reported that absent for Obamacare, Q1 GDP would have been negative in its first Q1 GDP report, subsequent GDP prints imploded as a result of what is now believed to be the polar vortex. But the real surprise was that the Obamacare boost was, in the final print, revised massively lower to actually reduce GDP!
This is how the unprecedented trimming of Obamacare's contribution to GDP looked like back then.
Of course, even back then we knew what this means: payback is coming, and all the BEA is looking for is the right quarter in which to insert the "GDP boost". This is what we said verbatim:
Don't worry thought: this is actually great news! Because the brilliant propaganda minds at the Dept of Commerce figured out something banks also realized with the stub "kitchen sink" quarter in November 2008. Namely, since Q1 is a total loss in GDP terms, let's just remove Obamacare spending as a contributor to Q1 GDP and just shove it in Q2.
Stated otherwise, some $40 billion in PCE that was supposed to boost Q1 GDP will now be added to Q2-Q4.
And now, we all await as the US department of truth says, with a straight face, that in Q2 the US GDP "grew" by over 5% (no really: you'll see).
Well, we were wrong: it wasn't Q2. It was Q3, albeit precisely in the Q2-Q4 interval we expected.
Fast forward to today when as every pundit is happy to report, the final estimate of Q3 GDP indeed rose by 5% (no really, just as we predicted), with a surge in personal consumption being the main driver of US growth in the June-September quarter. As noted before, between the second revision of the Q3 GDP number and its final print, Personal Consumption increased from 2.2% to 3.2% Q/Q, and ended up contributing 2.21% of the final 4.96% GDP amount, up from 1.51%.
So what did Americans supposedly spend so much more on compared to the previous revision released one month ago? Was it cars? Furnishings? Housing and Utilities? Recreational Goods and RVs? Or maybe nondurable goods and financial services?
Actually no. The answer, just as we predicted precisely 6 months ago is... well, just see for yourselves.
In short, two-thirds of the "boost" to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the "polar vortex" crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this "growth dry powder" for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.
In Hollywood you do!
Statistics so tortured they should qualify for protection under the Geneva Conventions.
John Q remembers the headline number, not the revised numbers.
Longer than that.
As I recall the last employment numbers in for Oct 1992 were very ugly...they were reported just before the GHWB/Bubba election.
As I recall they were later adjusted upward to quite satisfactory.
Mark Levin calls the Progressive Republicans.
Accurate, and historically significant.
Nice post!
CA....
Ha!!
We’ve been grubered!!
Thank you for your most excellent post.
Merry CHRISTmas!!
Thank you for posting this.
I too am tired of OUR government lying to us.
“One thing is for certain...the darker-skinned people of this country, regardless of their darkness, will never make the light-skinned people think they are worthy of full “inclusion” in society until they stop trying to purposely “exclude” themselves from the mainstream with their idiotic subcultures....”.....(I borrowed this quote...from a commentator)
It’s not an issue of race nor ethnic, nor victimhood....it is all about their ‘Culture ‘ and that is the issue.
Especially when they are biased toward certain businesses. Because corruption is known to be awful for the economy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.