Posted on 11/29/2014 2:43:52 PM PST by ckilmer
An interesting way to harden the US dollar and make it less of a fiat currency would be to sell the US oil reserve and use the proceeds to buy gold to store in Ft Knox or elsewhere.
For those who know their dollar and oil reserve history--this is 180 reversal of policies set in the 1970's because of a 180 reversal of circumstances. In the 1970's US oil production peaked and went into decline while the US dollar went off the gold standard and went into decline.
What's different now?
1.)Fracking has shown that the USA now has 100 year supply of oil. The USA is not going to run out oil any time soon. The fear of limited supply was the original reason for creating the US oil reserve. Now we know that we will not run out in anyone's lifetime.
2.) There are dozens of countries around the world working at undermining the dollar as the era of petro dollars winds down. Increasing gold reserves will help to harden the dollar.
3.)Countries like Germany and Holland are starting to move their gold out of the USA. This doesn't look good. It shows a loss of confidence in the long term viability of the USA. Selling oil and using it to buy gold would be a confidence builder.
3.) Its likely that oil will return to the $90@barrel in a year or two as lower oil prices reinvigorate the world economy and thereby push up the demand for oil and consequently the price of oil. However, the long term direction of oil is now down. Why. Because car makers in Japan Europe and America are shifting transportation to alternate fuels like natural gas, electric and even fuel cells. This is not a fad. Europe and Japan have an even more profound need than the USA to become energy independent. They can't do that as long as oil is their main transportation fuel.
Therefor its best to sell oil over the next decade while prices for oil are relatively high. 10 years from now and beyond oil is going to $35@ barrel and below as demand for oil collapses.
Government is trying like hell to kill farming. I drove through the inner valley of California, the state government caused water shortage has the farmers grinding up almond trees for mulch. Thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of acres of them... Add that to burning corn as fuel as mandated by fed.gov and you have a disaster brewing...
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The USA succeeds despite the incredible incompetence of government. Last time I lived in California was in the 1960’s when Jerry Brown’s father Pat was governor. He like all California governors before him understood the importance of water. They built the whole complicated water works system in California.
But later generations forgot about the primacy of water to California. Its a shame. Likely things will get worse there before they get better. But they will get better in a decade or two when the price of desalination collapses and all the coastal cities draw their water from the ocean —leaving the inland water works with all the water they need from the mountains.
This is something that will happen. But you wouldn’t want to hold your breath waiting for it to happen.
Oil is very useful. Gold is slightly useful for a few things.
All of that oil and more may be needed for defense. Oil is useful. Let the Iberians seek the gold.
Oil is very useful. Gold is slightly useful for a few things.
So we disagree. As far as I’m concerned, as long we’re IMPORTING oil, we need that reserve. If oil is cheap, then simply top it off.
It’s not one or the other. Both require money from China, so do both.
My truck doesn’t run on gold. Neither do the nation’s tanks, jets and ships.
Foolish idea. Really, really foolish.
Strategic has a better meaning than this.
The federal government owns about 35% of the land in this country, perhaps more. They are sitting on trillions in natural resources and real estate assets. They should immediately implement a program to sell or auction these assets to pay off the trillions in debt to be borne by our children and grandchildren. Buyers would be limited to U.S. citizens and corporations, and thoroughly vetted foreign corporations. By thoroughly vetted I mean no front organizations for terrorists, foreign intelligence services, or hostile foreign powers, or George Soros.
Bingo.
They sell gold with paper-naked shorts to drop the price.
Then, they probably buy gold covertly with fiat currency via proxies in unlicensed markets.
The Feds and central banks are fraudsters and swindlers.
This ponzu scheme and con job cannot go on for much longer.
What’s to prevent me or any other American citizen from buying federal land and flipping it to a foreign corporation? Would there be a permanent restriction on all owners, successors and assigns from ever hypothecating to a foreign entity? Supply and demand would dictate that this would reduce the value of the land. By how much I don’t know, but it would be measurable as it runs contrary to a free market.
Every bar allowed to remain in storage would have a lien attached that was multiple times the worth of the bar. Our currency would not have degenerated to the ephemera scrip it has become if not for the politicians who cannot say no to an opportunity to spend and waste our earnings.
So we disagree. As far as I’m concerned, as long we’re IMPORTING oil, we need that reserve.
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Oil production is rising so fast that in only 18 months or so, we will have achieved oil independence from all the world but Canada. (I think there is enough production increase built into current plans to allow for production increases even in the face of falling oil prices.)
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If oil is cheap, then simply top it off.
Here, as I mentioned, I think that in five years or so the alternate fuel cars & trucks start to take a bite out of oil demand. That bite will get ever bigger. Oil will get cheap and stay cheap.
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It’s not one or the other. Both require money from China, so do both.
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On this I think that the manufacturing revolution in 3d printing and advanced robotics will result in the reshoring of manufacturing back to the USA. There are big shifts in capital flows coming.
There are two things that have happened since the 1970’s. The US middle class wages have stayed the same while roughly a billion people around the world have entered the middle class.
I think that’s the result of the weak dollar.
I’m not so sure that the world we’re entering doesn’t require a strong dollar.
However, its clear to me we’re at the beginning of the end of the oil age. Oil will live on like coal did after the end of the 19th century. But oil will be much less central to modern life in only a decade from now.
“It will turn the world’s deserts green and double the size of the habitable earth.”
You mentioned cost. The money is currently there and available. All the money that has been stolen for green projects could be diverted to an effort such as this.
Using global warming as the narrative, desalination facilities are built along the African coastline. Technology and infrastructure routes everything inland. This will create new economies, will green the continent and pretty much feed the world.
And best of all, it becomes a CO2 scrubber. And there is nothing anyone can do or say to contradict this.
Want to crowd fund it with me?
Because oil is useful?
Want to crowd fund it with me?
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Sure. But most of the pieces for dirt cheap desalination and transport are being assembled elsewhere.
The costs for desal run roughly 1/3 energy 1/3 capital investment 1/3 maintenance.
Israel and Singapore are currently doing the cheapest desal at around $600@ acre foot. However, all their water is government water so its hard to know how much they have cooked the books with accounting gimmicks. byo comparison the posiden plant in Carlsbad California will likely cost 2k@acre foot. The great desert agricultural revolution starts when desalinated water gets to about 300@ acre foot.
As to the reduction in the price of energy, the work that will do the job is currently being done by half a dozen small portable nuclear power companies doing lftr msr designs. They’re all in design phase. But they are all the real thing and not like fusion which is always 20 years in the future. the LFTR MSR designs are more like 5 years to prototype and 10 years for production. They promise to cut the cost of electricity to 1/4-1/10 current cheapest coal/natural gas produced electricity. When they come on stream they’ll create the real energy revolution.
The second big key to lowering desal costs are to get the costs of the semipermeable membrane down,while raising their performance and durability; there’s already a bunch of companies working on that. This year Lockheed Martin announced big breakthrough in graphene membranes. but then went silent. http://www.desalination.com/wdr/50/9/graphene-membrane-technology-update
The third big key lowering desal costs is to turn salt brine rejection wastes from a cost of doing business to a profit center. There are a number of small companies around whose tech could be adapted for this purpose.
The fourth big key to lowering desal costs is creating new materials that are not just cheap but virtually maintenance free even in the presence of highly corrosive salt water. This area has the least amount of work being done on it as far as I know. But I could be wrong.
Finally I think that 3d printing will play a major role in lowering capital costs for desal plants. But we’ll see.
My point is two fold. doing the R&D is expensive. People are already doing most of it.
Why not sell the US oil reserve and use the proceeds to buy gold for Ft Knox.
Because oil is useful?
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I’ve become a believer that the automotive industry worldwide move into alternative fuels is not a passing fad. For one thing the only way europe and japan can ever become energy independent is to move away from internal combustion engines. So companies there will continue to pump out hydrogen and electric vehicles. price/performance for these cars is coming down. For another I’m a believer that Elon Musk will get his 35k electric car out by circa 2018. That will debut like a shot heard roung the world.
What does all this mean.
10 years from now oil will be less useful. 20 years from now oil will not be so useful.
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