Washington Post's election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate.

WAPO ^ | October 10, 2014 | Chris Cillizza

[Din Maker]

The Washington Post's Election Lab -- our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall -- is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models -- kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times -- project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I’m not breaking out the champagne until they actually call it on election night.

[Din Maker]

Did they factor in the 110% voter turn out in the hood?
_____________________________________________________________

Oh no; I’m sure they did NOT.

[Sybeck1]

I don’t remember Romney calling me a racist like Thad Cochran.

[billhilly]

Dick Lugar of Indiana lost, but who remembers?

[C. Edmund Wright]

Wrong. You’re conflating two totally different ideas while ignoring the reality of civics. A conservative Democrat winning elections empowers Reid and Obama. PERIOD. End of discussion.

A RINO Republican wining will increase the power of people like Ted Cruz and Trey Gowdy and Louie Gohmert and Mike Lee and so on. PERIOD. End of that discussion too.

The RINO angle gets posted on FR what, 500 times a day? Which is fine, but that’s another whole discussion than the point I was making, which is unassailable.

[C. Edmund Wright]

The Lugar Mourdock campaign was nothing like Cochran McDaniel. Analogy is a tricky and seductive mistress. You gotta be careful with them or you might end up making the wrong point.

[Sybeck1]

You come down here in Mississippi and cancel my vote against him. I am voting against the Barbour machine

[Jacquerie]

And as soon as he lost, he beat feet for Wall Street wealth.

Color me skeptical, but it would seem he never viewed himself as a rep, but rather as a power broker with full intent to line his pockets.

Washington DC, where avarice intersects ambition to our detriment.

[mwl8787]

Vote conservative in a primary, republican in the general.

Even if you don’t like a particular republican, it pulls the entire caucus to the right. Harry Reid thanks every conservative who fails to vote for Cochran, rounds, Purdue, and so forth.

[Maceman]

ARE WE BETTER OF LOSING THE SENATE IN 2014?

If the GOPs RINOcrats win, the GOPe will be convinced that it doesn't need the conservative base and will pass the leftist agenda, including Obama's nominations.

Don't believe me? Even now the Republican leadership is lowering expectations about what they'll do if they take the Senate in 2014.

You worried about a Democrat Senate approving Obama's judicial nominees? Well maybe you should listen to John McCain saying what will happen if the Republicans win the Senate: “I will work very hard to go back to 60 votes,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who boldly predicts a Republican Senate would process Obama’s nominees “more rapidly than [Democrats] do today.”

And as for the House: John Boehner: ‘Very Few’ Republicans Will Oppose Me

So tell me again how much better off we'll be voting for the RINOs.

If it wins the Senate, the current Republican leadership and RINOcrat candidates will do nothing to save our nation (assuming it is still capable of being saved), and the anger of the electorate will be aimed at them in 2016, as Hillary comes in and promises to save us.

And she will probably win, unless the GOP valiantly articulates, expresses and supports conservative candidates and the conservative agenda and has a credible conservative firebrand -- preferably Ted Cruz -- running against her.

If, on the other hand, the GOPe RINOcrats lose the 2014 general election, they will be forced to move immediately to the so-called "Right," and their their proven-loser moderate mainstream candidates (Romney, Christie, Bush, Huckabee) will never get past the primaries in 2016.

And Karl Rove will be a distant memory.

So which is better, if we win the Senate now or lose it?

Honestly, long term, I think it's better that we lose it this time.

And before you call me a Democrat troll, check out the 581 threads and 19,635 replies I have posted on FR since joining in 1998.

[mountn man]

About the only thing going for todays Republicants is that they aren't the party of Obama.

[cp124]

What difference does it make. More executive orders and ball less responses from the Democrat II party.

[nhwingut]

Exactly. I wrote this in regards to Scott Brown.

And I’m not one of those who throw around the ‘RINO’ and ‘GOPe’ tag very much. As a New England Republican, I’m pragmatic when it comes to messaging and trying to cobble up a majority/plurality in a Democrat-leaning swing state.

To me a so-called RINO is nothing but a back bencher and a number – allowing conservatives such as Rand Paul and Ted Cruz to have a bigger say in shaping legislation – in a Republican controlled Senate. Whereas, in a Harry Reid controlled Senate, conservatives have almost no sway. Reid could care less about what Limbaugh and Mark Levin are saying on the radio, or how many conservatives are flooding their phone lines. But Senate Republicans do – as they need our votes and money.

Plus, RINOs, while annoying, still vote far better than even the most (ahem) moderate Democrat. Susan Collins, for instance, voted against Obamacare. No so-called “moderate” Democrat did. And her 50% GOP voting record is 50% better than someone like Jeanne Shaheen.

[xzins]

Since this is not a national election, I can’t really imagine an ‘October surprise’ that would resonate state by state. They are effective in swaying a national election by a few percentage points, and that can be the difference.

But, what really are they going to do in Washington that is going to affect West Virginia? Positively, they could approve total open market on coal, but that’ not going to happen.

Negatively, which is what an October surprise is generally, I can’t think of anything short of declaring that the republican party has secretly signed documents to all become democrats, or all support abortion/amnesty/gaymarriage as soon as the last ballot has been cast. I suppose Priebus and Rove aren’t that stupid.

[Liz]

You nailed it---look no farther than the greedy Clintons....who never held jobs other than "public service" .....and ended up multi-billionaires.

News reports say the State Department announced it has "no idea" what happened to $6 billion used to pay its contractors..... an earlier State Dept “management alert” warned “significant financial risk and a lack of internal control has led to billions of unaccounted dollars over the last six years....under Hillary's watch as SoS.

BETTER ADD THIS IN, TOO Billy Boy got a hundred million dollars while Hillary controlled the State Dept checkbook......monies that were meant for Haiti (the place where the Clintons spent their honeymoon).

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Now we know how the "dead broke " clintons got their geedy hands on billions of dollars. Being president has an astoundingly good monetary return....that's why Hillary wants back in.

Hundreds of millions flow into the Clintons three tax-exempt foundations which the Clintons morphed into hundreds of separate fund-raising machines.

The Clintons calculatedly morphed into the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Family Foundation....to give it more fund-raising capabilities. Earlier, a NYT's expose chronicled the shady financing of the tax-exempt Clinton Global Initiative foundation.

============================================

CLINTON GLOBAL INITIATIVE
peruse 276 web pages of obscure programs
all of them Clinton vehicles to raise money
all of them salivating for payback w/ Hillary in the WH.

1271 Avenue of the Americas 42nd Floor
New York, NY 10020
212-348-8882

WEB SITE http://www.clintonfoundation.org/clinton-global-initiative

===============================================

The HILL.COM REPORTED: Bill and Hillary Clinton raised $2-3 billion in the two decades they’ve been prominent on the national stage, according to the WSJ.

The Journal tallied the Clintons’ speaking fees, fundraising for their foundation and the sums raised for Bill Clinton’s two presidential campaigns for the DNC while he was in office and for Hillary Clinton’s Senate and presidential campaigns.

Between $1.3-2 billion came from US companies and industry sources, making up at least 75 percent of the sum — more than the 60 percent industry sources contributed to the two Bushes’ political operations.

The Journal reports that if Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, as expected, she could return such donors to the Democratic Party, a source of concern for Republican fundraisers as they gear up for what’s expected to be the most expensive presidential election in history.

Overall, the Clintons’ political operations raised $1.2 billion, their nonprofit "foundation" drew between $750 million and $1.7 billion and they made about $100 million in speaking fees. --SNIP--

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CLINTON, INC book review

Daniel Halper provides a meticulously researched account of the calculations, secret deals, and backstabbing that led to the Clintons’ return to political prominence, and to Hillary’s position as 2016 frontrunner.

The Bill and Hillary Clinton who left the White House in January 2001 almost seem like two different people from the ones the country now reveres. Back then they were a disgraced couple, weighed down by a decade of scandal, controversial pardons of financial supporters, and the pedestrian pilfering of furniture from the White House.

A dozen years later, as they prepare for a second White House run, the Clintons are in a completely different orbit. Not only have they gone from virtually penniless to multi-millionaires, they are arguably the two most popular politicians in America-respected and feared by Republicans and Democrats alike. Even their daughter Chelsea, raised in the White House as her father was impeached, is considering a go at politics. The Clintons will be around for some time to come.

Investigative reporter Daniel Halper of the conservative Weekly Standard uses a wealth of research and detailed interviews with friends, allies, and enemies of the Clintons to reveal the strategy they used and the deals they made to turn around their political fortunes-deals with their political allies, their political enemies, and even each other.

SOURCE http://clintonincbook.com/

[srmorton]

I didn’t watch the Hagan/Tillis debates, but listened to excerpts and analysis, and I couldn’t believe her performance!

I agree with Mangia E Statti Zitto's opinion. If you still lived in NC, you would realize that Tillis is not really a bad candidate. He is very articulate and impressive in person. He has not only been bombarded with ads paid for with out-of-state money, but the legislature was also VERY late adjourning this year and Tillis could not actively campaign or raise money while it was still in session. Also, ever since the Republicans took the reins of government two years ago, the NAACP and other left wing groups have been conducting "Moral Mondays" of protest at the legislative building. Hagan has profited from the lies these people have been spreading and has used them herself. Now that Tillis can better respond to these attacks, I believe he will win and will prove to be an effective Senator (much better than Burr, IMO).

[InterceptPoint]

BTW, we can lose Thad Cockroach and STILL have a Senate Majority so don’t come back at me with that “I must love Harry Reid” crap.
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Yes we may win the Senate without Cochran. But we may lose. I’m not willing to take that risk. You are.

Look at my tagline. I’m no Cochran fan. and I doubt you are a Harry Reid fan.

But be aware that there are certainly some Dem plants here at good old FR who are pushing the anti-Cochran, never vote for GOPe candidates, Tea Party or nothing positions. Trust me, they are out to hurt our cause and they are having some success.

This is going to be a turnout driven election and the Dems are doing everything they can to suppress our votes, get theirs out and to cheat wherever they can get away with it.

[C. Edmund Wright]

You make some excellent points -and on Brown, who I’ve written about on AT (Rush read my entire piece the day after he beat Coakley) - he is not the problem. Mass is Mass and NH is NH.

The problems are Graham in SC, Cornyn in TX, Cochran in MS, Chambliss in GA, Burr in NC, Corker in TN, and so on. The problems are not Brown or even Olympia Snow and Susan Collins, as much as I despise those two. Red state RINOs are killing us, not blue state RINOs.

[bert]

so what..... It’ll still be better than your Dingy Harry controlled Rat Senate

[InterceptPoint]

You come down here in Mississippi and cancel my vote against him. I am voting against the Barbour machine
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Who are you voting for?