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For Wonks Only
Pimco ^ | September 2014 | William H. Gross

Posted on 09/07/2014 3:22:37 PM PDT by hripka

A credit-based financial economy (as opposed to pure cash) depends on an ever-expanding outstanding level of credit for its survival. Without additional credit, interest on previously issued liabilities cannot be paid absent the sale of existing assets, which in turn would lead to a vicious cycle of debt deflation, recession and ultimately depression. It is this expansion of private and public market credit which the Fed and the BOE have successfully engineered over the past five years, while their contemporaries (the ECB and BOJ) have until now failed, at least in terms of stimulating economic growth.

(Excerpt) Read more at pimco.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: banking; credit; debt; inflation
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To: expat_panama; Lurkina.n.Learnin
This will help:


21 posted on 09/08/2014 8:11:18 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama; Lurkina.n.Learnin

22 posted on 09/08/2014 8:12:39 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
[saving image] Whoa-- that's what hoarding cash looks like...
23 posted on 09/08/2014 8:18:05 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Wyatt's Torch; expat_panama; Lurkina.n.Learnin

Here’s Kasriel’s analysis and he’s calling for inflation to surge in 5-9 quarters from now.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/09/seeds-of-u-s-inflation-are-sprouting/print/

Comments?


24 posted on 09/09/2014 3:57:10 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
I think the Fed want's a little inflation (i.e. above 2%). They have been seeing these similar signs which is why they have tapered. I asked the idiot from the Boston Fed (the one who hadn't looked at velocity 'in a few years') about how they would unwind QE. The gist of his comments were that there were a number of instruments on their balance sheet that would expire naturally which would allow them to drain. The question of course is, "what if that's not fast enough"? If so they would have to sell some of the assets to drain the liquidity.

I've said all along that I agree with Bernanke (and now Yellen) that QE was the exact right thing to do... BUT exit timing is going to be imperative and difficult.

Ironically I actually think the slow churn pace of the economic recovery is helping them. If we had had a Reaganesque recovery boom the exit/unwind timing would be much much harder to get right.

25 posted on 09/09/2014 5:03:31 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

So what you really mean is that QE coupled with Obama’s anti-business policies is the right balance, no?

Otherwise, I suspect they’re going to get it wrong. We already have asset bubbles in specific markets. At the same time, I pity whoever is running the Fed. You essentially inherit decades of policy that deserves to be unwound, but isn’t politically feasible to do. Worse, you’re hostage to both Congress and the WH and their conflicting policies and meddling. I’m not unsympathetic individually to the Chairs’ challenges, but I think the FED just gives more cover to the politicians to ruin everything.


26 posted on 09/09/2014 7:10:41 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

Accidentally yes.

QE was the exact right prescription for deflation which is what we were facing.

The Fed, Bernanke and Fisher specifically, have been scathing in their criticism of Congress and Obama’s fiscal and regulatory policies.

IMHO the economy would be significantly worse without QE. Congress and Obama have gotten away with more because QE disguised it but QE was not meant to disguise it. It was the absolute right thing to do.


27 posted on 09/09/2014 7:31:58 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

“BUT exit timing is going to be imperative and difficult.”

I agree it was the right thing to do but it’s a little like unprotected sex. Pulling out at the wrong time can have lasting consequences.


28 posted on 09/09/2014 9:10:56 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (It's a shame nobama truly doesn't care about any of this. Our country, our future, he doesn't care)
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To: piytar

+1


29 posted on 09/09/2014 9:33:57 AM PDT by Jane Long ("And when thou saidst, Seek ye my face; my heart said unto thee, Thy face, LORD, will I seek")
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

LMAO! That is the best Fed analogy I’ve heard.


30 posted on 09/09/2014 12:33:56 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
IMHO the economy would be significantly worse without QE.

What exactly do you think would have happened without QE1 and you don't have to be humble about it.

31 posted on 09/09/2014 1:52:38 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

Think Japanese deflationary spiral.


32 posted on 09/09/2014 1:58:48 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Totally different causes, totally different demographics, economy and government. Wouldn’t happen here, ever. Worse for the pro-QE argument, the Japanese deflationary spiral is a direct result of government...wait for it...intervention.


33 posted on 09/09/2014 3:02:29 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

surging?

excusing the last blip,
150/7250 = 2% in a year.


34 posted on 09/09/2014 6:10:45 PM PDT by hripka (There are a lot of smart people out there in FReeperLand)
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To: Repeal The 17th

Dude...I can’t remember ever reading something like this (credit expansion being necessary for interest payments) from a mainstream source.

That’s why I posted it.


35 posted on 09/09/2014 6:23:44 PM PDT by hripka (There are a lot of smart people out there in FReeperLand)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

And where would I find if bank reserve requirements have increased?


36 posted on 09/09/2014 6:27:04 PM PDT by hripka (There are a lot of smart people out there in FReeperLand)
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To: hripka
Fed to Hit Biggest U.S. Banks With Tougher Capital Surcharge

Looks like it hasn't been done yet. Even if it when/if it is done, the banks will find a way to screw the general populace.

37 posted on 09/09/2014 6:37:52 PM PDT by Stentor (Maybe the Goldman Sachs thing is just a coincidence. /S)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Is all the boarding of cash what is prompting central banks to contemplate negative interest rates?


38 posted on 09/09/2014 6:41:53 PM PDT by Sawdring
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To: hripka

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_III

It appears they are in the process.


39 posted on 09/09/2014 6:58:42 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (It's a shame nobama truly doesn't care about any of this. Our country, our future, he doesn't care)
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To: hripka
To my point: Preparing To Asset-strip Local Government? The Fed’s Bizarre New Rules
40 posted on 09/09/2014 7:01:19 PM PDT by Stentor (Maybe the Goldman Sachs thing is just a coincidence. /S)
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